The Big 12 expansion groundswell

[Bengal Cougar]

I think we are going to stay at least an hour out of town. Less than $100 per night.

I stayed at a Casino in a town about 20 minutes out of South Bend in 2005, I was only in the room for 2-3 hours but it wasn't half bad. This of course assumes you wouldn't mind doing a little gambling while you are there. I think it was in Michigan City, but not sure.

I stayed in Chicago for a night before I went to South Bend, and for a night after I left. Chicago is a cool place to visit.

[Portland Ute]

If you pay $300 to stay in South Bend I will never let you hear the end of it.

I have no intention of doing that.

[myboynoah]

I have no intention of doing that.

Sure, now you don't.

[All-American]

A lot of visitors will come in from Chicago. Washington and USC fans were all over the city when they came in last year. You can take the South Shore line and train in for about ten bucks or so. That will take you to the South Bend airport, anyway.

[Uncle Ted]

Back to the Big XII expansion stuff.

Talked to a second insider - not a friend, but a friend of a family member. We know each other enough to say hello & see each other fairly frequently. He has direct ties to BYU Sports itself, not as a donor (the first guy I talked to a few days ago is a big BYU donor). I ran into him yesterday evening. He gave almost the EXACT same verbatim speech as the first guy - basically regurgitated Holmoe's press statement from last Friday:
> Things have changed.
> Nothing is final.
> There's reason for optimism & excitement.

I did ask him one question that may have gotten him to let a little more out of the bag than he had planned. I asked him if BYU was going to the Big XII, who was the 12th team going to be. He answer was "That's the $64,000 question." which leads me to believe a variety of things.

What I read into it:

I think we're being TOLD we're in - like Utah was told they were in before they actually got their invite. But like Utah with the whole PAC-10 moves to 16 scenario, if a better option were to come around for the Big XII, I'm pretty sure we're not REALLY in.

If the Big XII really did swing a coup and got LSU & Arkansas, as unlikely as that seems, we'd definitely not be in. Or if they got Arkansas and Louisville. But taking either Arkansas, LSU or Louisville steps on some major toes of other conferences who might just strike back at the Big XII (the Big 10+2 & SEC have already stated their desire to go to 16, and the ACC has hinted that way as well. to do that, they're going to have to dismantle the Big East. For the Big XII to go in that direction (with either an SEC team or a Big East team) will not be without consequences. Those teams are spoken for. Taking one of them will open all the Big XII teams up as targets for the Big 10+2 and SEC to reach their 16-team goal. The Big XII would pay dearly for stepping on those toes.) So they're doing a whole bunch of testing and probing and questioning before moving. I think it's unlikely they'll actually go either to SEC or Big East country for their expansion. And ND is out of the question. If they were going to join a league, it'd be the Big 10...

I think that right now, we're the best team available that they'll likely be able to actually sign. But they're trying like hell to get AR/LSU, AR/Louisville, or SOMETHING better before they have to "settle" for BYU/Air Force or BYU/NM or BYU/Tulsa. But the clock is ticking on the 2011 Big XII championship game. They have to make a decision by Sept 1, or that game will really be in jeopardy. I'm convinced SOMETHING will happen before that. I'm hopeful, but not yet positive, and not yet elated...

The way I see it the timing of the Big 12-2 expansion is dependent on what Colorado does. Right now Colorado doesn't leave the Big 12 until the 2012 season. NU will be gone next year leaving the Big 12 with 11 teams. Colorado is trying to get into the Pac-10 in 2011 like Utah (so the Pac-10+2 can start their conf championship game in 2011):

http://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports...in-place-soon/

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/footbal...olorado-pac-10

The 12th team is the $64K question. It is rumored that Jerry Jones is pushing Arkansas to jump from the SEC. Of course, Jones denies this so it must be true:

[ame="http://sports.espn.go.com/dallas/ncf/news/story?id=5298661"]Source: Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones denies talking to Arkansas about move to the Big 12 - ESPN Dallas[/ame]

One thing that could happen is the Big 12 could convince the NCAA to give them a one year exception on the 12 team conference championship rule while Colorado is making it's transition to the Pac-10. This would buy some time for the Big 12 to shop around for replacement teams. If that doesn't happen then they could invite BYU before the September 1st deadline and force CU to play in the Big 12 the 2011 season to buy some time as well. It seems from what Holmoe and apparently others are saying implies BYU is on the Big 12's line and can be reeled in at anytime. In other words, BYU has given its verbal to the Big 12. I wouldn't be surprised if the NCAA has denied (or will deny) the Big 12 exception request and BYU will join the Big 12 sooner rather than later.

[SeattleUte]

I feel confident Colorado will be in the Pac 12 in 2011. That seems to be in everyone's interest. It's just a money problem.

I read that the payout by networks isn't being reduced because Nebraska and Colorado are leaving, so why does Texas [a/k/a Big 12-2] even care? This may be one of the issues affecting Colorado's buy out. Maybe Colorado's saying there's no harm, but I don't know what the formula is for the buy out. I do know that liquidated damages can't be just a penalty; that's really a prospective rule, but CU could say that the Texas' interpretation makes it a penalty. Just guessing here. It would be fun to be figuring this out for CU.

[Bengal Cougar]

I feel confident Colorado will be in the Pac 12 in 2011. That seems to be in everyone's interest. It's just a money problem.

I read that the payout by networks isn't being reduced because Nebraska and Colorado are leaving, so why does Texas [a/k/a Big 12-2] even care? This may be one of the issues affecting Colorado's buy out. Maybe Colorado's saying there's no harm, but I don't know what the formula is for the buy out. I do know that liquidated damages can't be just a penalty; that's really a prospective rule, but CU could say that the Texas' interpretation makes it a penalty. Just guessing here. It would be fun to be figuring this out for CU.

I agree that Colorado will be in the Pac 12 in 2011. Neither Colorado or the Big 12 want to deal with each other any longer then they have to, and because of that they will work to get a deal done quickly. My guess is Colorado will pay a buyout, but not the full amount the Big 12 has asked for.

[U-Ute]

If I were a Utah fan, I'd stay in Chicago and take the commuter train into South Bend (unless you have no interest in Chicago, obviously). Even in South Bend, a quick search on kayak shows plenty of rooms in the 100-150 range.

We have friends who live in Chicago. They're picking us up at the Midway airport, and we're staying in Laporte.

Believe it or not, this will be my very first away college football game. I've never suffered through attended a game in Provo.

[myboynoah]

We have friends who live in Chicago. They're picking us up at the Midway airport, and we're staying in Laporte.

Believe it or not, this will be my very first away college football game. I've never suffered through attended a game in Provo.

Just so you're not confused, your team will be wearing white.

[WashingtonCoug]

Just so you're not confused, your team will be wearing white.

And you might have a chance to win... unlike in Provo.

[Portland Ute]

Sure, now you don't.

Oh. That burns so bad. Good one!

[Uncle Ted]

I feel confident Colorado will be in the Pac 12 in 2011. That seems to be in everyone's interest. It's just a money problem.

I read that the payout by networks isn't being reduced because Nebraska and Colorado are leaving, so why does Texas [a/k/a Big 12-2] even care? This may be one of the issues affecting Colorado's buy out. Maybe Colorado's saying there's no harm, but I don't know what the formula is for the buy out. I do know that liquidated damages can't be just a penalty; that's really a prospective rule, but CU could say that the Texas' interpretation makes it a penalty. Just guessing here. It would be fun to be figuring this out for CU.

It seems the TV contracts are not actually in stone. Also, Statman stated the conference title game is worth $20M. I have heard the figure $15M throw out but let's go with the $20M figure. So it seems there is some good money still on the table to keep the Big 12 at 12 teams. Of course, the Big 12 will need to fine another team, in addition to BYU, that adds value enough value to make it worth it.

[Uncle Ted]

Officially entering the begging stage of the grief cycle...

[jay santos]

It seems the TV contracts are not actually in stone. Also, Statman stated the conference title game is worth $20M. I have heard the figure $15M throw out but let's go with the $20M figure. So it seems there is some good money still on the table to keep the Big 12 at 12 teams. Of course, the Big 12 will need to fine another team, in addition to BYU, that adds value enough value to make it worth it.

It's too bad the Big 12 won't look at expansion like the Pac did. Just add anybody, no matter the finances, just to get to 12.

[SeattleUte]

It's too bad the Big 12 won't look at expansion like the Pac did. Just add anybody, no matter the finances, just to get to 12.

I realize this is as big a slam on BYU as it is on Utah. But in fact the Pac 10 did invite Utah because of the finances, inter alia. Much has been written about that. for example,

http://www.sportingnews.com/college-...ady-developing

The new BYU outlook in the cylcle of grief is to try to carve into our joy. Red Leg (an obvious fake) is doing that with his latest post (shall we talk about how poor Wyoming and San Diego State are?). We don't care . We like the club we're in.