The Big 12 expansion groundswell

[Goatnapper'96]

This is spot on. Hubris/arrogance is not just a personal shortcoming, it can be a killer for an organization. The chickens are coming home to roost.

I don't think it is hubris so much as fundamental realities. It took me time to see it after growing up in LA in the Pac footprint but I really saw it during Covid-the Covid period really accelerated the demise of west coast football IMO. The west coast doesn't value football as much as other parts of the country. Further, it is generating fewer and fewer blue chip HS football players- I think these two realities are probably interrelated. It is fun to make fun of the Utah fans who set themselves up for it and I am not trying to deprive BYU fans of our moment to gloat, but I don't think it was incompetence that led the Pac and Utah to this situation it was fundamental economic realities. There is neither the interest nor the consistent number of blue chip west coast athletes to support a major college football conference centered on the West Coast-there has to be some culling process and that is what we are seeing. UCLA and USC bolt to affiliate themselves with a midwestern conference because those geographical areas like football enough to offer the LA schools more protection. I don't know if the BIG the longterm home of the LA schools but as this chaotic reorganization/reshuffling of conference affilations continues the teams that make it through the west coast culling process have to be affiliated with a midwestern conference in some form.

Utah, the state, has the benefit of still caring about football. Much like most of the teams that will remain in the Big-12 after TX and OU depart-both BYU and Utah are good programs backed up by a fanbase and community that value good college football. Further, the Poly community punches so far above it's weight class in producing such a disproportionately high number of blue chip college football prospects that whoever that midwestern conference that arises from the chaos it will want exposure for its members in Utah. So I figure at least one of the two will get a seat at the final table-and perhaps both.

The only 2 programs left with top tier potential are Oregon and Washington-and I think in both cases those 2 as potential purple bloods are ebbing away each year. Oregon is living so much off of the money provided by Phil Knight-who is getting older. Once he dies will his kids continue to support Oregon to this extent and force them into that purple blood status? Can Washnington be immune enough to the fundamental cultural changes going on in those who want to live and work in the West Coast? You think SeattleUte's sons played football-LMFAO. Peterson worked himself to death to get Washington on the cusp only to decide it just wasn't worth the investment and backed off. These cultural trends are subtly culling how many big time programs the West Coast can support. I just wonder if the B1G isn't happy with landing the LA schools. Perhaps Oregon and Washington end up in some version of the Big-12?

Just a crazy chaotic time right now, but IMO it is more driven by fundamental economics than it is incompetence other than the incompetence of not realizing the reality that the West Coast is just no longer fit to be the heartbeat of a major college football conference.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Everyone is dunking on that guy. And nobody deserves the karma more than him. If he had a tiny shred of honor he would delete his account.

[Jeff Lebowski]

I don't think it is hubris so much as fundamental realities. It took me time to see it after growing up in LA in the Pac footprint but I really saw it during Covid-the Covid period really accelerated the demise of west coast football IMO. The west coast doesn't value football as much as other parts of the country. Further, it is generating fewer and fewer blue chip HS football players- I think these two realities are probably interrelated. It is fun to make fun of the Utah fans who set themselves up for it and I am not trying to deprive BYU fans of our moment to gloat, but I don't think it was incompetence that led the Pac and Utah to this situation it was fundamental economic realities. There is neither the interest nor the consistent number of blue chip west coast athletes to support a major college football conference centered on the West Coast-there has to be some culling process and that is what we are seeing. UCLA and USC bolt to affiliate themselves with a midwestern conference because those geographical areas like football enough to offer the LA schools more protection. I don't know if the BIG the longterm home of the LA schools but as this chaotic reorganization/reshuffling of conference affilations continues the teams that make it through the west coast culling process have to be affiliated with a midwestern conference in some form.

Utah, the state, has the benefit of still caring about football. Much like most of the teams that will remain in the Big-12 after TX and OU depart-both BYU and Utah are good programs backed up by a fanbase and community that value good college football. Further, the Poly community punches so far above it's weight class in producing such a disproportionately high number of blue chip college football prospects that whoever that midwestern conference that arises from the chaos it will want exposure for its members in Utah. So I figure at least one of the two will get a seat at the final table-and perhaps both.

The only 2 programs left with top tier potential are Oregon and Washington-and I think in both cases those 2 as potential purple bloods are ebbing away each year. Oregon is living so much off of the money provided by Phil Knight-who is getting older. Once he dies will his kids continue to support Oregon to this extent and force them into that purple blood status? Can Washnington be immune enough to the fundamental cultural changes going on in those who want to live and work in the West Coast? You think SeattleUte's sons played football-LMFAO. Peterson worked himself to death to get Washington on the cusp only to decide it just wasn't worth the investment and backed off. These cultural trends are subtly culling how many big time programs the West Coast can support. I just wonder if the B1G isn't happy with landing the LA schools. Perhaps Oregon and Washington end up in some version of the Big-12?

Just a crazy chaotic time right now, but IMO it is more driven by fundamental economics than it is incompetence other than the incompetence of not realizing the reality that the West Coast is just no longer fit to be the heartbeat of a major college football conference.

I think you are overstating the case with Oregon/Washington. And Stanford football is weak right now, but they are the best top-bottom athletic program in the country.

The P12 had multiple opportunities to add teams and solidify their position and avoid what is currently happening. But they couldn't bring themselves to do it - and they never were shy about the reasons.

[Paperback Writer]

Wait a minute…. Nebraska! They have looking for an excuse to leave the B1G and CU coming back to the fold (the fold without UT and OU) is it. Nebraska is going to be relevant again!

Nebraska left the Big12 precisely because they feared UT and OU would join Colorado to the PAC12 and then the Big12 would fold or become what it currently is: a conference without the top half of its original members. But I give props to the Big12 for adding BYU and surviving.

As far as Nebraska becoming relevant again, if the Huskers can't do that in the B1G-West, then there is little hope. FWIW, I cannot decide whether I am in the anger stage or the denial stage when it comes to Nebraska losing its football relevance. The anger stage is that Scott Frost was yet another false messiah. The denial stage is that back in 2010, Notre Dame joins the B1G, Nebraska stays in the Big12 and conference members sign a grant of rights to the conference after adding BYU to replace Colorado.

In my view, the Big12 will try to add either one or three additional P12 schools after Colorado joins. The logical choices would be either Utah by itself or Utah with Arizona and ASU. I think Washington and Oregon hold out for a B1G offer.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

Here is a perfect illustration. Trade up? What on earth are these knuckleheads smoking?

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They're geographically limited, they should have tried to pick off a couple Texas schools, Kansas and BYU after Texas and OU made it known they were leaving the Big 12. They were either truly blindsided by the LA schools leaving, or they were extremely foolish.

The Pac 9 has no good options right now re expansion. With cable TV disintegrating and the bloom coming off the streaming rose, there couldn't be a worse time to negotiate a TV deal.

The Big 10 has shown by adding Maryland (DC kind of) and Rutgers (NYC, but lol what a bunch of idiots, no one cares about Rutgers) that they care about market size and will look past some glaring shortcomings. Stanford has a great overall program, Cal not so much. I can't help but think they would love to add the Bay Area schools, even over UW and definitely over Oregon. That said, if it works, it seems like having six teams on the West Coast wouldn't be the worst idea for the Big 10

[Jeff Lebowski]

Based on market analysis done by the B12, here are strongest brands in the P12:

1. Oregon
2. Washington
3. Arizona
4. Colorado

Utah is down the list somewhere.

I think AZ will follow Colorado ASAP.

Now suppose you are Oregon/Washington. You could stick with the leftovers in the P12 and add a few MWC schools and end up with a horrible media contract with very little linear content. Also you have to hope more 4-corner schools don't jump ship and leave you in a worse position. Or you could join the B12 for immediate stability and an instant $32M contract. You think they care about "cultural fit" at this point? This is an existential crisis.

That B1G invite isn't coming. I guarantee you they have been begging the B1G behind the scenes for over a year now.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Also, word is that things are moving now because BY gave the P12 schools a two week deadline. The window of opportunity is closing. Things are going to continue to be crazy.

[Goatnapper'96]

Based on market analysis done by the B12, here are strongest brands in the P12:

1. Oregon
2. Washington
3. Arizona
4. Colorado

Utah is down the list somewhere.

I think AZ will follow Colorado ASAP.

Now suppose you are Oregon/Washington. You could stick with the leftovers in the P12 and add a few MWC schools and end up with a horrible media contract with very little linear content. Also you have to hope more 4-corner schools don't jump ship and leave you in a worse position. Or you could join the B12 for immediate stability and an instant $32M contract. You think they care about "cultural fit" at this point? This is an existential crisis.

That B1G invite isn't coming. I guarantee you they have been begging the B1G behind the scenes for over a year now.

Why do you think the B1G invite isn't coming?

[Goatnapper'96]

Also, word is that things are moving now because BY gave the P12 schools a two week deadline. The window of opportunity is closing. Things are going to continue to be crazy.

A deadline for what? What leverage does BY have over Washington and Oregon? If they want in on August 21 I doubt the Big 12 says no.

There might be real legal deadlines as to why schools have to jump to be a new conference by the time football starts in 2024, but I can't see the new conference having any meaningful leverage. Perhaps it is that legal date that Yormark is pushing and not an arbitrary deadline.

[Mormon Red Death]

Why do you think the B1G invite isn't coming?

Espn.com said this :

USC also made it known upon joining the Big Ten that they didn't want to share the Los Angeles recruiting market with anyone else on the West Coast. Why give up the biggest competitive advantages of joining the Big Ten -- the vastly superior finances being flexed to the rich Southern California recruiting base. Why pay more foxes to come to the henhouse?

[Jeff Lebowski]

A deadline for what? What leverage does BY have over Washington and Oregon? If they want in on August 21 I doubt the Big 12 says no.

There might be real legal deadlines as to why schools have to jump to be a new conference by the time football starts in 2024, but I can't see the new conference having any meaningful leverage. Perhaps it is that legal date that Yormark is pushing and not an arbitrary deadline.

A deadline for admission to the B12 for the 2024 year. Allegedly, the deadline was at least partially imposed by the networks. We are less then a year away from the 2024 athletic year.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Why do you think the B1G invite isn't coming?

The top priority for the B1G is ND. And that won't resolve for several years. Multiple sources from the B1G are saying there just isn't enough consensus right now to add Oregon and UW. Some of them are still not sure adding USC/UCLA was the right move.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Oh, and more thing: the B1G media deal does not have a pro rata clause like the B12 deal. So adding UW/Oregon would cost the B1G money.

[Pelado]

Based on market analysis done by the B12, here are strongest brands in the P12:

1. Oregon
2. Washington
3. Arizona
4. Colorado

Utah is down the list somewhere.

I think AZ will follow Colorado ASAP.

Now suppose you are Oregon/Washington. You could stick with the leftovers in the P12 and add a few MWC schools and end up with a horrible media contract with very little linear content. Also you have to hope more 4-corner schools don't jump ship and leave you in a worse position. Or you could join the B12 for immediate stability and an instant $32M contract. You think they care about "cultural fit" at this point? This is an existential crisis.

That B1G invite isn't coming. I guarantee you they have been begging the B1G behind the scenes for over a year now.

Where are you seeing that? Do you have a link?

[Goatnapper'96]

Espn.com said this :

If this is true then I would expect Oregon and Washington ought to be looking for a new home and I can't grasp why the Big 12 wouldn't make itself available.

What is the optimal size of a football conference anymore anyway? I have always been a fan of 12 as it allows two divisions of 6 and a logical 8 or 9 game schedule with a Championship game. Now I can't figure out what the optimal size is-I understand money drives it but I would think these folks have an end state of conference size in mind for logistical planning.