The PAC 10 expansion groundswell

[Jeff Lebowski]

This thread is the Fox News of the Pac 12.

I keep trying to fire Tucker Carl .... err .... MHVer3, but some people here just can't help themselves.

[Uncle Ted]

Prime Time... the savior of the Pac 12-2?

Deion Sanders' debut with Colorado will boost Pac-12, just not enough to help ongoing media rights talks
Plus, a look at Las Vegas' growing importance and UNLV's candidacy for a Power Five conference

Back in December during a conference in Las Vegas, Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff was asked if the spectacular aura of Deion Sanders at Colorado would add value to the league's media deal. CU's new coach had been hired days before.

"He absolutely adds value to the league," Kliavkoff told reporters
[...]
Colorado's spring game is sold out for the first time in program history. The expected crowd of 45,000 (paying $10 each) is bigger than the last nine CU spring games combined. (The Buffs drew slightly less than 1,800 last year.)

There is a genuine buzz surrounding the program. Sanders moves the ratings needle -- Colorado's spring game is one of only two such contests ESPN is televising, the other being back-to-back national champion Georgia -- but he won't move the bottom line.
[...]

https://www.cbssports.com/college-fo...-qbs-struggle/

And UNLV to the Pac 12-2?

"I think they're sitting in a great spot," Livengood said of the Rebels. "Not only is it an institution that has improved themselves academically … athletically, I don't think there is any question the new football staff has a great chance to hit the ground running."

One must assume the Pac-12 would be interested in making a play for UNLV as they are already considering expansion with the likes of San Diego State. The Big 12, which is also exploring its expansion options, has not indicated any official interest in the Rebels. When Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark recently said his conference was open for business, it's wise to assume UNLV, among other similarly positioned schools, picked up the phone.

What about Fresno State?

Fresno State: Somehow, calls from the Fresno State administration to the Big 12 have been misconstrued as interest from the Big 12. At this point, there is no Big 12 interest in the Bulldogs, seemingly not even as a fallback option if other expansion falls through.

The B12 is not interest in them so the Pac 12-2 can have them.

What about BSU?

The Big 12 already has BYU in the Mountain Time Zone. Like Fresno, Boise might qualify as Pac-12 backfill if the league loses teams.

They have the Broncos too... The B12 will take UW and Oregon instead.

Memphis? WTF?

[Jeff Lebowski]

They really don't have any good options.

[Uncle Ted]

ESPN is raising more money for that Pac 12-2 deal offer...

ESPN announces layoffs as part of Disney plan to cut thousands of jobs

ESPN began informing employees of layoffs on Monday as part of sweeping job cuts taking place throughout its corporate owner, the Walt Disney Company.

Disney CEO Bob Iger announced in February that the company would slash 7,000 jobs either through not filling positions or layoffs.
[...]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/espn-an...ing-by-disney/


They must really want to have Coach Prime on ESPN.

[Uncle Ted]

Jeff Fuller does some analysis why the Pac 12-2 is having problems getting the media deal done in a four part series: https://espn960sports.com/news/why-t...-media-deal-2/

In short:

• Pac 12-2 fans have claimed that Pac games have higher ratings than Big 12 games, But Fuller points out that the Pac has had a lot fewer rated games. In short, Pac fans are only comparing their best games to nearly all of the Big 12 games. It may also show the lack of inventory for Pac games.
• For TV market size Nelson data shows that the Pac markets are declining year over year where as the Big 12 markets are growing. In addition, the Big 12 markets have a higher percentage of college football fans. Therefore, the Big 12 already has the more valuable markets for broadcasters.
• If you take out USC/UCLA and OU/UT... 9 of the 10 highest viewed Pac 12-2 games involved Oregon. 19 of the 20 highest view Pac 12-2 games involved either Oregon and UW. And only one of those games topped 1.6M viewers. By comparison the Big 12 had 13 games top 1.6M viewers. So there is a risk if Oregon (and UW) left the Pac 12-2 to media partners. In addition, the rumor is that ESPN and Amazon are really only interested in one Pac 12-2 game a week (and The CW may be interested in the rest). There is a lot of dead weight in the Pac 12-2 basically.
• Looking at the last 27 highest-viewed games over the last 3 years (excluding 2020), 12 were in 2019, 10 in 2021, and only 5 in 2022. The trend, again, is going in the wrong direction. On the other hand, the Big 12's trend is the opposite. In fact, 13 or their 27 highest-viewed games were in 2022.

By about every metric the Pac is going in the wrong direction, the Big 12 seems to have better (sports) markets even though the population is less, and without Oregon and UW the Pac would be dead to potential suitors (with the exception to maybe The CW). Some of this may be due to Larry Scott and his vision of the Pac 12 network. So if the Pac dies they can blame him (and the Big 12). If Oregon and UW jump to the Big 12 then they can blame them too.

[Jeff Lebowski]

That is really interesting. Thanks making that summary.

Reinforces the notion that we should maybe take two teams max.

[Uncle Ted]

That is really interesting. Thanks making that summary.

Reinforces the notion that we should maybe take two teams max.

Yes, Oregon and UW would make great additions to the Big 12.

[Omaha 680]

That is really interesting. Thanks making that summary.

Reinforces the notion that we should maybe take two teams max.

Agreed 2 max. Oregon and Washington are the obvious choices, but not sure if they are realistic ones. Second choice would be Arizona + someone else but I don't even know who the someone else should be. I suppose Colorado would have the most potential. Not a lot of good options beyond the top tier draws.

[USUC]

Agreed 2 max. Oregon and Washington are the obvious choices, but not sure if they are realistic ones. Second choice would be Arizona + someone else but I don't even know who the someone else should be. I suppose Colorado would have the most potential. Not a lot of good options beyond the top tier draws.

Outaide of Oregon and Washington, the two Arizona schools would make the most sense. I'm not sure any two other options in the Pac-12 would be equal to them. It's way too early to believe in the Colorado turnaround. Even if Prime is a good coach, he'll be gone before a complete transformation takes place. Utah is a Whittingham retirement away from a descent. The Bay area schools are too proud and WSU/OSU are the equivalent of Boise without their in state counterparts.

[Uncle Ted]

Outaide of Oregon and Washington, the two Arizona schools would make the most sense. I'm not sure any two other options in the Pac-12 would be equal to them. It's way too early to believe in the Colorado turnaround. Even if Prime is a good coach, he'll be gone before a complete transformation takes place. Utah is a Whittingham retirement away from a descent. The Bay area schools are too proud and WSU/OSU are the equivalent of Boise without their in state counterparts.

Yeah, if the B12 invites Colorado then they need to write Coach Prime into the contract... He is bringing them in:

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[Uncle Ted]

The B1G doesn't want to be the conference that killed the PAC 12... Even though they got in the first stab by inviting USC and UCLA.

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But if the Big 12 kills the Pac by inviting 2-4 of the four corner teams would there be any point in inviting SDSU?

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[Pelado]

The B1G doesn't want to be the conference that killed the PAC 12... Even though they got in the first stab by inviting USC and UCLA.

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But if the Big 12 kills the Pac by inviting 2-4 of the four corner teams would there be any point in inviting SDSU?

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If 2-4 PAC teams go to the Big 12 and especially if Washington and Oregon go to the Big 10, the PAC will need SDSU even more just for survival. Having lost 8 teams (USC/UCLA, Washington/Oregon, 4 to Big 12), they'd be down to just 4 teams remaining and would likely be inviting not just SDSU, but probably several more Mountain West and/or AAC teams.

[Uncle Ted]

If 2-4 PAC teams go to the Big 12 and especially if Washington and Oregon go to the Big 10, the PAC will need SDSU even more just for survival. Having lost 8 teams (USC/UCLA, Washington/Oregon, 4 to Big 12), they'd be down to just 4 teams remaining and would likely be inviting not just SDSU, but probably several more Mountain West and/or AAC teams.

Say that the Big 12 takes the four corner teams and then the B1G takes Oregon and UW. Cal and Stanford are not going to stick around to be the new anchor teams in the PAC 4. They will most likely make a deal with the B1G (ie, take smaller pieces of the B1G pie) or go independent. I guess at that point the PAC 2 could convince all the MWC team to join them in the new PAC. And the PAC survives and the SDSU ADs prophecy becomes true.

[Jeff Lebowski]

The B1G doesn't want to be the conference that killed the PAC 12... Even though they got in the first stab by inviting USC and UCLA.

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This rumor makes zero sense. Sounds like his source is MHVer3.

[Pelado]

This rumor makes zero sense. Sounds like his source is MHVer3.

I've heard it, too. I think if the money were good enough, they wouldn't worry about it. So it's probably less about not wanting to kill the PAC and more about WA/OR not being valuable enough.