The PAC 10 expansion groundswell

[Jeff Lebowski]

Yeah, there is an orthodox element of PAC fandumb that cannot allow for the possibility of PAC schools talking to the B12.

So how much of a money/exposure deficit are PAC schools willing to tolerate in order to stick together? I bet WSU, OSU, and uofutah are all on the $6 million less per year/100% on streaming train. Arizona and CU are on the "not a penny less"/gotta be close to B12 exposure train. I wonder about ASU. Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and Cal are on the "we need uneven income distribution and no exit penalty" train, because they are gone as soon as the B1G decides to expand its west coast footprint.

100% streaming would be suicide. No way would they agree to that.

I will shocked if Wash/OU agree to a GoR. I think this league is a dead man walking.

[myboynoah]

100% streaming would be suicide. No way would they agree to that.

I will shocked if Wash/OU agree to a GoR. I think this league is a dead man walking.

OSU and WSU have no choice. uofutah hates us so much/is so committed to academics/is not very smart that (at least judging from many of its vocal fanbase) it is willing to kill itself before joining the B12.

[Uncle Ted]

You are obviously not a student of this dude:

The PAC 12-2 has to add SMU now...

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[Uncle Ted]

OSU and WSU have no choice. uofutah hates us so much/is so committed to academics/is not very smart that (at least judging from many of its vocal fanbase) it is willing to kill itself before joining the B12.

I don't see the problem here.

[Pelado]

I'm not going to put out money to read Wilner's musings on the PAC future, so I don't know the details of the article, but thought it lol funny that his primer for the article says that GK was brought in to close an "acceptable" media right deal. This seams to have become the talking point for the PAC, just get something acceptable.

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Why would you have to pay to read it? Are you not quick enough with CTRL+A and CTRL+C before the pop-up shows up?

Anyway, a few relevant quotes:

This is exactly why the conference hired the former president of MGM Sports and Entertainment in the first place — to close a media deal that satisfies the revenue and exposure needs of the membership.

Nothing else matters. The stakes are nothing less than the future of the conference and the trajectory of major college sports on the West Coast.

Will Kliavkoff land a deal comparable in revenue to the Big 12’s agreement with Fox and ESPN that will distribute $31.7 million per campus?

Will the deal include sufficient exposure on broadcast and cable television?

Relevant questions, but the answers are only assumptions (emphasis added):

Given the Pac-12’s message discipline, we should assume Kliavkoff knew ahead of time that Robbins was going public.

And we should assume that Robbins was briefed on the latest news from the negotiations — if not the specifics, then at least the general tone and trajectory.

Which tells us that Kliavkoff is deep enough into the process to have a sense for the numbers and was confident enough in what he’s heard from Apple, Amazon and ESPN to pass that sentiment along to Robbins.

There is no chance — none, zero, zip — that Robbins would go public if the situation appeared bleak behind the scenes.

Does that mean the Pac-12’s future is safe and secure? Only if Kliavkoff has seen the final offers and knows that even the worst proposal will be good enough. But that’s an assumption the Hotline isn’t prepared to make.

So Wilner isn't reporting any new facts. He restates what is already public knowledge (PAC's contract is dragging, George is staying quiet, some PAC presidents spoke out this week). Then, he just makes assumptions of what must be going on behind the scenes.

I find his assertion that Robbins wouldn't go public if things appeared bleak to be funny. I got the sense that Robbins isn't satisfied with the rosy scenario he's hearing from PAC headquarters and is essentially telling George - through the media - that he better get his ducks in a row and get his projected media revenues into a committable offer.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Why would you have to pay to read it? Are you not quick enough with CTRL+A and CTRL+C before the pop-up shows up?

Anyway, a few relevant quotes:



Relevant questions, but the answers are only assumptions (emphasis added):



So Wilner isn't reporting any new facts. He restates what is already public knowledge (PAC's contract is dragging, George is staying quiet, some PAC presidents spoke out this week). Then, he just makes assumptions of what must be going on behind the scenes.

I find his assertion that Robbins wouldn't go public if things appeared bleak to be funny. I got the sense that Robbins isn't satisfied with the rosy scenario he's hearing from PAC headquarters and is essentially telling George - through the media - that he better get his ducks in a row and get his projected media revenues into a committable offer.

Yeah, that last part is BS. Jason Scheer is arguing that Robbins was setting expectations so that if the deal doesn't come through (and soon), he has already laid out the logic for an exit. That is every bit as likely as Wilner's explanation.

Furthermore, why would GK outsource leadership and messaging to a single university president? Why wouldn't he say something? Why are so few of the other university leaders speaking up?

[myboynoah]

Yeah, that last part is BS. Jason Scheer is arguing that Robbins was setting expectations so that if the deal doesn't come through (and soon), he has already laid out the logic for an exit. That is every bit as likely as Wilner's explanation.

Furthermore, why would GK outsource leadership and messaging to a single university president? Why wouldn't he say something? Why are so few of the other university leaders speaking up?

Yeah, Sheer seems to be the only rational school-adjacent voice out there on what is happening. Canzano is a glorified HB Arnett. Wilner is very much a PAC cheerleader.

It felt like GK sent out some talking points to the school presidents last week and asked them to go out and counter some of the dire reporting about the PAC's future. Talking points were: 1) PAC schools are solidly together about sticking together (no duh) 2) a media deal is going to get done soon and it will be adequate, maybe even better that adequate 3) academics are important to PAC schools.

That worked because the schools could answer is generalities and avoid specific questions that GK would face if he spoke to the media. GK can't talk to the media now because of all the negative reporting out there. How can he counter today's reporting about Apple taking its time and ESPN/Amazon not being willing to match the B12's $31 billion? The only answer to that is a deal, and he doesn't have one yet. And beyond that, what is going to say about the length of the contract and the grant of rights? Which goes to your point about us not hearing from other presidents or ADs, particularly Oregon and Washington, and Stanford and Cal to a lesser extent. And what about Colorado?

[Moliere]

It’s pretty clear that a deal only has to be as good as the Big12 deal to keep the conference together. Why Apple or ESPN would go beyond the $31mm would be beyond me. Why overpay for something when you are basically the only bidder?

I predict they get a five year deal that nets out close to the Big12 deal. I also think the PAC will basically be gone after those five years are up.

[myboynoah]

It’s pretty clear that a deal only has to be as good as the Big12 deal to keep the conference together. Why Apple or ESPN would go beyond the $31mm would be beyond me. Why overpay for something when you are basically the only bidder?

I predict they get a five year deal that nets out close to the Big12 deal. I also think the PAC will basically be gone after those five years are up.

So the ceiling is set, but why do they need to go to the ceiling? Why not insist on something even cheaper? Where is the PAC going to go?

Conceivably, they could settle for $3-$4 million less per school and argue that is amount they would have had to put out on travel in the B12, so it is a wash.

[Uncle Ted]

Yeah, Sheer seems to be the only rational school-adjacent voice out there on what is happening. Canzano is a glorified HB Arnett. Wilner is very much a PAC cheerleader.

It felt like GK sent out some talking points to the school presidents last week and asked them to go out and counter some of the dire reporting about the PAC's future. Talking points were: 1) PAC schools are solidly together about sticking together (no duh) 2) a media deal is going to get done soon and it will be adequate, maybe even better that adequate 3) academics are important to PAC schools.

That worked because the schools could answer is generalities and avoid specific questions that GK would face if he spoke to the media. GK can't talk to the media now because of all the negative reporting out there. How can he counter today's reporting about Apple taking its time and ESPN/Amazon not being willing to match the B12's $31 billion? The only answer to that is a deal, and he doesn't have one yet. And beyond that, what is going to say about the length of the contract and the grant of rights? Which goes to your point about us not hearing from other presidents or ADs, particularly Oregon and Washington, and Stanford and Cal to a lesser extent. And what about Colorado?

I think everyone is giving GK the benefit of the doubt right and are in a "wait and see" holding pattern. Everyone except OSU, WSU, Utah, and maybe ASU have good PAC exit options. Utah is not interested in the Big 12 and Utah may not benefit the Big 12 (if the Big 12 media contract is similar to the ACC contract with respect to being in unique states and Utah offers nothing in terms of basketball). Colorado has named Coach Prime Time as their savior (and essentially the AD of CU now) and he is a Big 12 fan.

An interesting interview of a guy I think has a lot of insight was the BYUSN interview of Stewart Mandel of The Athletic: https://www.byutv.org/96226298-b9c0-...a-8203bef216d6

He says that ASU and Utah don't have a lot of interest in the Big 12. He says Arizona, on the other hand, does. He also throws out that Gonzaga going to the Big 12 (in a "few weeks"). (Damnit... I thought we were rid of those guys!) He says that BY is positioning the Big 12 as the top basketball conference. After UCLA and USC leave Arizona is really the last basketball program left in the Pac 12. BY is going to make the Big 12 the 3rd best conference by making it the basketball conference.

[LiveCoug]

Who even is this Altimore dude? He seems unhinged. Is he supposed to be an official something or other?

[Uncle Ted]

Who even is this Altimore dude? He seems unhinged. Is he supposed to be an official something or other?

He is not @MHver3 so JL likes him. Speaking of @MHver3 that guy has gone like completely silent.

[Jeff Lebowski]

He is not @MHver3 so JL likes him. Speaking of @MHver3 that guy has gone like completely silent.

I like making fun of him!!

[Uncle Ted]

Is it time?

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[Uncle Ted]

Big 12 closes in on data rights deal

The Big 12 Conference is finalizing its first revenue-producing data and statistics partnership, industry sources say. A decision on a data partner is expected in the coming two-to-three weeks and it will require approval by the Big 12’s board. Given the conference’s deep relationship with Endeavor, which has advised the Big 12 on many issues, including its media rights, sources say IMG Arena is the frontrunner for the data rights deal. IMG Arena, which is owned by Endeavor, serves as a data distribution partner for professional leagues like the MLS and the PGA Tour.
[...]

https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.co...ghts-deal.aspx

Canzano was right about a deal being announced today.