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While lottery picks are typically given chance after chance to succeed, late second-round picks often have to beat out multiple players with guaranteed contracts and NBA experience ahead of them, making it very difficult to even make a team. Yet in Sacramento, Isaiah Thomas, the No. 60 pick of the 2011 Draft, has jumped Jimmer Fredette, the No. 10 pick, in the rotation.
Despite his lofty draft status, Fredette’s struggles in the NBA aren’t that surprising. More broadly, they illustrate a common mistake in how college prospects are evaluated: the ability to score a lot of points, even for a Top 10-15 team, doesn’t necessarily translate to the next level. Conversely, there are many collegiate role players who will have better pro careers than All-Americans like Fredette.
BYU provided the perfect situation for Fredette: the Cougars built their entire offense around him, spreading the court with shooters and letting him isolate at the top of the key. In his senior season, he took a jaw-dropping 21 shots a game, meaning he was shooting once every two minutes. His ability to hit a vast array of difficult long-range shots was certainly entertaining, but creating a shot off the dribble is only one of five different skills an NBA player needs.
As a prospect, the biggest red flag in his game was his assist to turnover ratio, at 4.3 assists to 3.5 turnovers a game. A player who can consistently create good shots for other people should have an assist to turnover ratio closer to 2:1.
Defensively, Fredette’s average to below-average athletic ability amongst NBA combo guards means he will have to be hidden his entire career. Poor defensive ability is too often hand-waved away because most young NBA players struggle on that side of the ball, but a fast player can learn team defensive principles much easier than a slow player can learn speed.
Fredette is a a great outside shooter, an average passer and a poor defender and rebounder. In short, he’s the type of player who needs the ball in his hands to be worthy of being taken in the lottery. But how many NBA teams are going to let an unathletic 6’2, 200 combo guard dominate the ball? Even the Kings, who haven’t exactly set the league on fire this season, have three players -- Tyreke Evans, DeMarcus Cousins and Marcus Thornton -- far ahead of him in the scoring pecking order.
In contrast, while Thomas didn’t receive nearly as much hype coming out of Washington, he displayed a far more complete all-around game. Despite being only 5’9, 185, he had a nearly identical shooting percentage (44.5% to 45.3%), grabbed the same number of rebounds (3.5 to 3.4) and was a much better passer (with 6.1 assists on 3.0 turnovers). And while Fredette is a “1.5”, too slow to defend point guards and too short to defend shooting guards, Thomas has the quickness and foot-speed to match up with the NBA’s new breed of lightning-quick sub-6’0 guards.
Neither is probably ever going to be a frontline NBA point guard, but Thomas can fill a lot more roles (matching up with fast points, running an offense, using his speed to penetrate into the lane) than Fredette, a shooting specialist. Unless a player is one of a team’s top three offensive threats, their value to a team comes from how many different roles they can perform.
Fredette might still become an effective player for the Kings, but it’s hard to see him ever living up to expectations of the No. 10 overall selection. None of the teams who took the next three guards to come off the board -- the Golden State Warriors (Klay Thompson), Utah Jazz (Alec Burks) or New York Knicks (Iman Shumpert) -- would deal their taller and more athletic rookies for Fredette. The Miami Heat, who took another mid-major PG (Norris Cole) at No. 28, wouldn’t trade their pick for Fredette either.
"That young man is coming along. If everybody in the world would just leave me alone and let me develop this kid, he's going to be OK. This young man is developing the right way to be a player in the NBA for a long time. I know everybody around the world wants him to have his shining light right now, but I've been in the NBA for a long time and I know what I'm doing to develop guards to have sustained success. Right now, he is moving in the right direction. Tonight is another night where the kid understood how to play. He understands and sees the floor, but there's other things he doesn't understand yet, because he doesn't have the experience yet. I have the experience so let me do my job."
I guess he's getting tired of the questions about Jimmer. I also would love to know all of the point guards he has developed in his extensive career.
From that article, apparently he worked with Steph Curry at Golden State.
"I think it was King Benjamin who said 'you sorry ass shitbags who have no skills that the market values also have an obligation to have the attitude that if one day you do in fact win the PowerBall Lottery that you will then impart of your substance to those without.'"
- Goatnapper'96
I guess he's getting tired of the questions about Jimmer.
You've got to feel for the Kings organization. I'm sure if they had any idea how annoying BYU fans can be they never would have drafted Jimmer. I remember Kevin O'Conner being grilled before the draft by a bunch of local reporters who only wanted to ask him what he thought of Jimmer. They were like a bunch of giddy school girls. O'Conner finally got fed up with it all and left.
"In conclusion, let me give a shout-out to dirty sex. What a great thing it is" - Northwestcoug
"And you people wonder why you've had extermination orders issued against you." - landpoke
"Can't . . . let . . . foolish statements . . . by . . . BYU fans . . . go . . . unanswered . . . ." - LA Ute
You've got to feel for the Kings organization. I'm sure if they had any idea how annoying BYU fans can be they never would have drafted Jimmer. I remember Kevin O'Conner being grilled before the draft by a bunch of local reporters who only wanted to ask him what he thought of Jimmer. They were like a bunch of giddy school girls. O'Conner finally got fed up with it all and left.
"In conclusion, let me give a shout-out to dirty sex. What a great thing it is" - Northwestcoug
"And you people wonder why you've had extermination orders issued against you." - landpoke
"Can't . . . let . . . foolish statements . . . by . . . BYU fans . . . go . . . unanswered . . . ." - LA Ute
If rumors are to be believed, Rick Majerus prefers to leave it on the court as well.
Prepare to put mustard on those words, for you will soon be consuming them, along with this slice of humble pie that comes direct from the oven of shame set at gas mark “egg on your face”! -- Moss
There's three rules that I live by: never get less than twelve hours sleep; never play cards with a guy who's got the same first name as a city; and never go near a lady's got a tattoo of a dagger on her body. Now you stick to that, everything else is cream cheese. --Coach Finstock
Jimmer had 12 and 4 tonight on 5-9 shooting in 24 minutes and was one of just two Kings players who was on the plus side in terms of +/-. Jimmer was +8 in a 7 point loss.
edit: I thought this from Simmons, in his annual trade value column, was funny (Tyreke didn't make Simmons' 50, btw)
Tyreke Evans: When somebody makes a documentary about the 2011-12 Kings, it's either going to be called The Sacramento Black Holes, Tyreke Takes It Himself or Wide Open: The Chuck Hayes Story. And the trailer is definitely going to have Paul Westphal or Keith Smart screaming Norman Dale-style, "What did I tell you guys? I want no passes before every shot! You hear me? NO PASSES!"
This morning's SF Chronicle has a column about Jimmer's fans/family being bummed about his lack of minutes, and Coach Smart's reasoning behind that.
It's a strategy that is frustrating to Fredette's vociferous flock and maddening to his family, but Smart promises that his plan ultimately is the best move for the rookie and the team.
"The unfortunate part is that everybody wants his time to be now, but it's a process," Smart said. "I have no doubt that Jimmer's going to figure this all out, and it's going to all work out the way everyone thought it would.
"The tough part is going through the teething with him and all of his followers, and everyone hoping and wanting something for him that just doesn't come that easily."
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