"You Gotta Love It Baby" Official Jazz thread

[MarkGrace]

Donatas MotiejunasDonatas Motiejunas (Benetton Treviso – Italy): The talented 7-foot forward born in 1990 played a great season, and in the first round of playoffs he dominated in the paint. In four games he scored 15.3 points per game (63% 2p, 44% 3p and 73% ft) in just 24 minutes per game. In the second round, against Montepaschi Siena (who won the last four championships) “Moti” had a lot of problems in trying to beat one of the best defense in Europe, and he averaged only 7 points in three games on 4/13 in 2p and 2/6 in 3p. He finished the regular season with 13.1 points and 4.4 rebounds averages in 25 minutes per game.

Jan Vesely (Partizan Belgrado - Serbia): Vesely started the first round with a good game in an easy victory against FMP. Vesely scored 16 points (7/8 2p, 0/1 3p, 2/3 ft) in only 19 minutes. For now his best performance during the playoffs. But he’s still playing well in this post season: in five games he has averaged 13 points on an impressive 73% inside the arc (28/38). He finished the regular season averaging 11.2 points per game, shooting with excellent percentage from the field: 60% in two points shots, and 36% from the three point line … But an horrific 40% from the charity stripe (27/67), confirmed in this last five games (9/22, 41%).

Jonas Valanciunas (Lietuvos Rytas – Lithuania): He has just lost the championship finals against Zalgiris Kaunas, but he played a solid season while he trailed off some during the playoffs. In the nine post-season games he averaged 10 points and 5.3 rebounds, with an incredible 71% from the field (35/49) and 64.5% in free throws. These are good statistics, but in the regular season he did even better: 12 points and 8.1 rebounds per game shooting 65% from the field and 83.8% (62/74) when the clock is stopped.

http://nbadraft.net/international-prospect-update

[MarkGrace]

Kanter's stock seems to be dropping from what I have been reading.

There are rumors that he's moved into the 1 or 2 spot on some teams boards. Ford still has him at 3 with his stock as up.

I doubt he's #1 on Cleveland's board, however. Cleveland is in an interesting spot. You look at that mock above and they end up with Kanter/Knight -- that's a pretty good draft. If you take Kanter, you basically force TWolves to pass on Irving, you know the Jazz are taking Irving, and then you are guaranteed Knight. However, if you just draft Irving at #1, there's still a decent chance that Kanter is there at #4. You might have passed up Irving/Kanter in favor of Kanter/Knight. I'd definitely take the former combo.

[Surfah]

There are rumors that he's moved into the 1 or 2 spot on some teams boards. Ford still has him at 3 with his stock as up.

I doubt he's #1 on Cleveland's board, however. Cleveland is in an interesting spot. You look at that mock above and they end up with Kanter/Knight -- that's a pretty good draft. If you take Kanter, you basically force TWolves to pass on Irving, you know the Jazz are taking Irving, and then you are guaranteed Knight. However, if you just draft Irving at #1, there's still a decent chance that Kanter is there at #4. You might have passed up Irving/Kanter in favor of Kanter/Knight. I'd definitely take the former combo.

Exactly. I'd be surprised if the former scenario isn't what exactly happens on draft day.

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

There are rumors that he's moved into the 1 or 2 spot on some teams boards. Ford still has him at 3 with his stock as up.

I doubt he's #1 on Cleveland's board, however. Cleveland is in an interesting spot. You look at that mock above and they end up with Kanter/Knight -- that's a pretty good draft. If you take Kanter, you basically force TWolves to pass on Irving, you know the Jazz are taking Irving, and then you are guaranteed Knight. However, if you just draft Irving at #1, there's still a decent chance that Kanter is there at #4. You might have passed up Irving/Kanter in favor of Kanter/Knight. I'd definitely take the former combo.

If Cleveland went for Irving at 1 and really wanted Kanter with their 2nd pick, it'd be interesting to see how it might go down if Utah were to take Kanter at #3. Would Cleveland offer up Irving so they can get Kanter + Knight + extras from Utah? Or would the Cavs stick with Irving and give up something to Utah to end up with Kanter + Irving?

[Jacob]

You might have passed up Irving/Kanter in favor of Kanter/Knight. I'd definitely take the former combo.

Exactly why there's no way Cleveland does that. I'm not a big fan of NBAdraft.net.

Also, I don't think there is any chance Valanciunas is withdrawing from the draft. he's said he's not and he is actively working with his team on a buyout. And his team wants him to get a buyout because they are short on cash.

And Biyombo going 19? I'm not sure I'd be surpirsed if he slips into the teens. But if I'm drafting anywhere in the teens, I don't think I could pass up on the best physical specimen in the draft.

[Jacob]

If Cleveland went for Irving at 1 and really wanted Kanter with their 2nd pick, it'd be interesting to see how it might go down if Utah were to take Kanter at #3. Would Cleveland offer up Irving so they can get Kanter + Knight + extras from Utah? Or would the Cavs stick with Irving and give up something to Utah to end up with Kanter + Irving?

That's the only way the Jazz could end up with Irving, IMO.

[MarkGrace]

That's the only way the Jazz could end up with Irving, IMO.

The Jazz have to do whatever they can to make Cleveland believe they will take Kanter at 3. I wonder if that's the reason for the hush-hush after his workout? Ford mentioned that both Toronto and Utah have privately said they were very impressed with Kanter. Is that also a set-up?

Cleveland can all but guarantee themselves Kanter/Knight, but they can't do the same with Irving/Kanter. If the Jazz can create the legitimate belief that they will take Kanter at #3, perhaps you force Cleveland's hand to take Kanter #1.

I would bet everything I own that Irving is #1 on the Jazz board, and you have to think they'd be considerng all strategies to get him. The above is a long-shot, but I'm guessing something they've thought about.

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

Cleveland will definitely have an interesting decision to make at #1, because the #2 pick appears to be in play for anyone interested in moving up. Some team may want to get it done for Williams, some for Kanter, and you would have to think other teams would get in the mix with Minnesota if Cleveland ended up going Kanter #1 and left Irving available at 2.

Which would be fine with me. Cleveland gets Kanter and Knight, someone like Toronto trades up to land Irving, and Utah gets Williams at 3.

[Jacob]

The Jazz have to do whatever they can to make Cleveland believe they will take Kanter at 3. I wonder if that's the reason for the hush-hush after his workout? Ford mentioned that both Toronto and Utah have privately said they were very impressed with Kanter. Is that also a set-up?

Cleveland can all but guarantee themselves Kanter/Knight, but they can't do the same with Irving/Kanter. If the Jazz can create the legitimate belief that they will take Kanter at #3, perhaps you force Cleveland's hand to take Kanter #1.

I would bet everything I own that Irving is #1 on the Jazz board, and you have to think they'd be considerng all strategies to get him. The above is a long-shot, but I'm guessing something they've thought about.

I agree with you. But everyone seems to have Irving a huge leap ahead of Knight and as the best player in the draft. How often does that guy not get drafted 1st?

But about the "hush hush" after the Kanter workout. There's nothing there. The Jazz are hush hush after every workout. The only guy out there claiming some conspiracy or oddity to the radio silence following the workout was thehoopsreport guy. But guess what? Kanter has had at least one other workout since the Jazz and not a peep from Kanter or his agent about how it went. Not a peep from the team holding the workout.

[MarkGrace]

But about the "hush hush" after the Kanter workout. There's nothing there. The Jazz are hush hush after every workout. The only guy out there claiming some conspiracy or oddity to the radio silence following the workout was thehoopsreport guy. But guess what? Kanter has had at least one other workout since the Jazz and not a peep from Kanter or his agent about how it went. Not a peep from the team holding the workout.

I thought it was odd, especially when his agent implied that the Jazz asked them not to talk and they were going to respect that. In other Jazz workouts, we always get at least something. On the first big workout KOC commented on every single player individually, and here not a single peep. But it could have just been because it was held in Chicago and the SLC media wasn't there to have access to KOC or anyone else.

IDK. Seemed odd to me.

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

I agree with you. But everyone seems to have Irving a huge leap ahead of Knight and as the best player in the draft. How often does that guy not get drafted 1st?

But about the "hush hush" after the Kanter workout. There's nothing there. The Jazz are hush hush after every workout. The only guy out there claiming some conspiracy or oddity to the radio silence following the workout was thehoopsreport guy. But guess what? Kanter has had at least one other workout since the Jazz and not a peep from Kanter or his agent about how it went. Not a peep from the team holding the workout.

I replied to the hoopsreport dude when he was saying that the silence from Kanter and Utah meant something was probably wrong there, because as he put it when the team and player are both happy "someone says something". I commented to him that that take came on the same day when he said Cleveland saying they loved Valanciunas was junk and that there was no real interest there...can't have it both ways when trying to be so definitive in your speculation.

[Jacob]

I replied to the hoopsreport dude when he was saying that the silence from Kanter and Utah meant something was probably wrong there, because as he put it when the team and player are both happy "someone says something". I commented to him that that take came on the same day when he said Cleveland saying they loved Valanciunas was junk and that there was no real interest there...can't have it both ways when trying to be so definitive in your speculation.

Yeah, I saw that. I wanted to respond to him after the 2nd Kanter workout, because he hasn't reported a single comment form that workout.

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

I was hoping coming to Vegas for a week was going to provide some clarity on the #3 pick...but no such luck.

But I haven't kept track of what is going on with the Jimmer/Knight/Walker workout in Utah. Any chance Jimmer gets matched up with one or both of those guys? Usually I'd say it's solid advice for agents to keep Knight and Walker from working out against guys who are projected to get picked after them, but any chance Utah forces a match-up between at least two of those guys, even if it is Walker and Knight? Seems that having the #3 pick could give Utah a little leverage to get it done.

But maybe not when the team with the #3 pick is Utah and a prospect might be fine going #7 and playing somewhere else instead.

[Jacob]

But maybe not when the team with the #3 pick is Utah and a prospect might be fine going #7 and playing somewhere else instead.

Under the old/current CBA, the salary for the #3 pick is 3.5m and 2.4m for the #7 pick. That's a significant enough difference to put aside any anti-Utah prejudices during the rookie contract.

[Sizzle]

I know some on here don't love Hollinger... but I like being able to have his information as another piece of the puzzle.

Here are the numbers of what is expected for the 3rd and 12th pick as far as estimated wins added. I believe this includes data from the 1989-2009 draft(s).

Pick 3:
Expected Wins added: 5.6 (what they would expect)
Wins added average: 6.2 (what the average has been)
Average player: Jerry Stackhouse (5.9)
Ceiling: Pau Gasol (13.9)
Floor: Adam Morrison (-1.8)

Last 10 #3 picks:
2010: Derrick Favors
2009: James Harden
2008: OJ Mayo
2007: Al Horford
2006: Adam Morrison
2005: Deron Williams
2004: Ben Gordon
2003: Carmelo Anthony
2002: Mike Dunleavy
2001: Pau Gasol

Dunleavy hasn't lived up to expectations, but given the three picks after him (Drew Gooden, Tskita, Dajuan Wagner) he seems like less of a bust. With hindsight, Stoudamire, Boozer, Caron Butler or Nene would have been better picks, but who wouldn't do things differently with hindsight. Morrison was a bad pick, but again, not a whole lot else in that draft (Roy, Rondo and Sap). The thing that scares me is this draft seems to be closer to those two drafts than any other draft listed.

Pick 12:
Expected Wins added: 2.8
Wins added average: 1.2
Average player: Nick Collison (2.8)
Ceiling: Mookie Blaylock (6.0)
Floor: Alec Kessler (-0.5)

Last 10 #12 picks:
2010: Xavier Henry
2009: Gerald Henderson
2008: Jason Thompson
2007: Thaddeus Young
2006: Hilton Armstrong
2005: Yaroslav Kovalev
2004: Robert Swift
2003: Nick Collison
2002: Melvin Ely
2001: Vladamir Radmonovic

Again, nothing really exciting at 12. Jason Thompson and Nick Collison seem to be the best of the bunch, though Thaddeus Young is looking like he may be a contributor as well.

One other point I think I'd like to make, at least as it pertains to the first pick. It seems like the bust potential is much much higher for wings or bigs than it is for guards. Of guards (specifically point or combo guards) taken in the top 5 picks since 1989, Jay Williams at #2 is the only real "bust" and even that is a stretch given his injury. Maybe Antonio Daniels taken at #4 was too high, but he at least had a productive NBA career. Maybe Raymond Felton (again, at least he's been productive), maybe Ricky Rubio will be (picked so young though and was an international player), but generally speaking, that seems to be the safer route in the top 5. Guys on this list include Derrick Rose, Russel Westbrook, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, John Wall, Mike Conley, Devin Harris, etc.

I think I'm leaning more towards taking Knight at 3 if he's available and letting Kanter slide. Knight, in my eyes, seems like a safer pick, has just as much upside as Kanter IMO, and could easily play alongside a traditional PG if needed as a combo guard.

At 12, I'm torn on if you swing for the fences with upside or lean towards somebody who can contribute with a specific skill ie shooting or shot blocking. Guys like Biyombo, Klay Thompson, Alec Burks, Jordan Hamilton, etc. are in play here IMO. I don't know though, it will definitely be interesting.

Here is the link from ESPN, in case anybody wants to read further:
[ame="http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2009/insider/news/story?id=4206291"]NBA Draft - D.R.A.F.T. Initiative: Pick analysis - ESPN[/ame]