"You Gotta Love It Baby" Official Jazz thread

[Sizzle]

Ibaka at 12? In a heartbeat. At 6? Most likely, I guess I'd have to see who is in and who is out, but even at 6, there is a 97% chance I'd take Ibaka.

Looking back I didn't realize how void of an impact player the 6th pick historically has been.

The last few picks include:

Epke Udoh, Jonny Flynn, Danilo Gallinari, Yi Jianlian, Brandon Roy, Martell Webster, Josh Childress, Chis Kaman, Dajuan Wagner, Shane Battier, DerMarr Johnson, Wall Szczerbiak, Robert Traylor, Ron Mercer and Antoine Walker back to 1996.

Top three since 1990 are probably Brandon Roy, Wally Szczerbiak and Danilo Gallinari. Worst three since 1990 are probably Doug Smith, DerMarr Johnson and Dajuan Wagner. So yes, looking at those guys, I guess I would have to be happy with a Serge Ibaka at 6... which is disappointing.

Pick 7 is a little bit better though with recent picks including Greg Monroe, Stephen Curry, Eric Gordon, Corey Brewer, Randy Foye, Charlie Villanueva, Luol Deng, Hinrich, Nene, Eddie Griffin, Chris Mihm, Rip Hamilton, Jason "White Chocolate" Williams, Tim Thomas, Lorenzen Wright and Damon Stoudamire.

Top three here are probably Rip, Nene and either Eric Gordon or Damon Stoudamire. Worst three are probably Griffin, Brewer and Mihm, but most of those guys are at least serviceable NBA players. Going back further you've got guys like Chris Mullin, Kevin KJ Johnson and Alvin Robertson at pick 7, along with Thurl Bailey.

For some reason I look back and think of guys who were drafted in the later half of the lottery who were impact players (Shawn Marion, Dirk, T-Mac, Joaquim Noah, Brook Lopez, Paul Pierce, etc.) and I like to think you can get an impact player, but it really is hit or miss. There seems to be about one guy per draft (on average) taken outside of the top 5 picks who is an impact guy. You can get (and need to get) good quality players, guys who can fill roles or be quality starters, but it is tough to land impact players outside of the top 5. I guess I need to temper my expectations significantly for what our pick could/should bring.

Although, looking back on the past few drafts it is depressing seeing guys the Jazz missed by one or two picks. 2008 Ibaka going 24 instead of Koufos at 23, Arron Afflalo going 27 instead of Morris Almond at 25. Both of those guys would have been been good fits on the previous iteration of the Jazz teams.

[MarkGrace]

For some reason I look back and think of guys who were drafted in the later half of the lottery who were impact players (Shawn Marion, Dirk, T-Mac, Joaquim Noah, Brook Lopez, Paul Pierce, etc.) and I like to think you can get an impact player, but it really is hit or miss. There seems to be about one guy per draft (on average) taken outside of the top 5 picks who is an impact guy. You can get (and need to get) good quality players, guys who can fill roles or be quality starters, but it is tough to land impact players outside of the top 5. I guess I need to temper my expectations significantly for what our pick could/should bring.

People's expectations for the draft are odd. I know I've mentioned this several times in the context of our Hayward discussions, but I think expectations for the kid have been out of whack based largely on the fact what people think they should be getting at that range of the draft is out of line with the reality of what they're likely getting.

[Sizzle]

People's expectations for the draft are odd. I know I've mentioned this several times in the context of our Hayward discussions, but I think expectations for the kid have been out of whack based largely on the fact what people think they should be getting at that range of the draft is out of line with the reality of what they're likely getting.

I think part of it is because as a Jazz fan, we've been lucky enough to really have limited experience in the lottery and most of it has been fringe lottery (12-14th). The lone exception was in 2005 when we moved up to 3rd in a solid draft and landed Deron. I don't think we're going to get that lucky this time, unless we get some balls bouncing our way or KOC finds somebody willing to trade with.

If compared to other sports like the NFL and if you're picking in the top 10, you should be getting an impact player. They can't be compared though, because of the difference in roster sizes and the fact that in football each player doesn't play more than roughly half of a teams minutes. In basketball, your studs go for 75% of your teams minutes on any given night and there are 6 less guys on the court at any given time. Any given football player only accounts for (roughly) 5% of the teams available minutes. A basketball player can easily account for 15% of the teams available minutes (36 minutes per game). Sorry, this has been more for my own head working through it than anything else.

I agree with your earlier premise though, this draft is not looking pretty, especially if Barnes doesn't declare. There are guys who allegedly have talent (Kanter, Perry Jones, Terrance Jones, or either of the Euros) but I just can't get excited about them. Maybe it is because we're already full with minutes at the 4 with Favors/Jefferson/Sap, not to mention Jeremy Evans, and that is where a lot of those guys would play, but nobody really seems like the type of player we'd be looking for.

I like the thought of Jordan Hamilton, but he'll probably be the next Trajon Langdon.

[LiveCoug]

Looking back I didn't realize how void of an impact player the 6th pick historically has been.

The last few picks include:

Epke Udoh, Jonny Flynn, Danilo Gallinari, Yi Jianlian, Brandon Roy, Martell Webster, Josh Childress, Chis Kaman, Dajuan Wagner, Shane Battier, DerMarr Johnson, Wall Szczerbiak, Robert Traylor, Ron Mercer and Antoine Walker back to 1996.

Top three since 1990 are probably Brandon Roy, Wally Szczerbiak and Danilo Gallinari. Worst three since 1990 are probably Doug Smith, DerMarr Johnson and Dajuan Wagner. So yes, looking at those guys, I guess I would have to be happy with a Serge Ibaka at 6... which is disappointing.

Pick 7 is a little bit better though with recent picks including Greg Monroe, Stephen Curry, Eric Gordon, Corey Brewer, Randy Foye, Charlie Villanueva, Luol Deng, Hinrich, Nene, Eddie Griffin, Chris Mihm, Rip Hamilton, Jason "White Chocolate" Williams, Tim Thomas, Lorenzen Wright and Damon Stoudamire.

Top three here are probably Rip, Nene and either Eric Gordon or Damon Stoudamire. Worst three are probably Griffin, Brewer and Mihm, but most of those guys are at least serviceable NBA players. Going back further you've got guys like Chris Mullin, Kevin KJ Johnson and Alvin Robertson at pick 7, along with Thurl Bailey.

For some reason I look back and think of guys who were drafted in the later half of the lottery who were impact players (Shawn Marion, Dirk, T-Mac, Joaquim Noah, Brook Lopez, Paul Pierce, etc.) and I like to think you can get an impact player, but it really is hit or miss. There seems to be about one guy per draft (on average) taken outside of the top 5 picks who is an impact guy. You can get (and need to get) good quality players, guys who can fill roles or be quality starters, but it is tough to land impact players outside of the top 5. I guess I need to temper my expectations significantly for what our pick could/should bring.

Although, looking back on the past few drafts it is depressing seeing guys the Jazz missed by one or two picks. 2008 Ibaka going 24 instead of Koufos at 23, Arron Afflalo going 27 instead of Morris Almond at 25. Both of those guys would have been been good fits on the previous iteration of the Jazz teams.

You'd pick Wally over Chris Kaman?

[San Juan Sun]

You'd pick Wally over Chris Kaman?

Kaman, Battier, and even Antoine Walker were better than Wally.

[MarkGrace]

Sac is going to blow this. Losers.

[Sizzle]

You'd pick Wally over Chris Kaman?

Wally averaged 14 points for his career shooting 48% from the floor and 40% from the 3. He had seasons where he averages 18, 19 and 20 points.

His career was cut short by injuries if I remember right.

Antoine Walker was a chucker and I'm not a fan. Chris Kaman would be the next guy on the list IMO. Barrier close as well.

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

Sac is going to blow this. Losers.

Kings win. Kings win.

I wonder what Tyreke Evans' trade value is right now. That guy seems like an anchor for a team, and not in a good way.

[MarkGrace]

Huge win! Sac and nj tied now, right?

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

Huge win! Sac and nj tied now, right?

Yep. I think the Kings finish with OKC and LAL, and the Nets have Charlotte and Chicago IIRC.

[LiveCoug]

Yep. I think the Kings finish with OKC and LAL, and the Nets have Charlotte and Chicago IIRC.

Who owns the tie breaker?

[Sizzle]

Who owns the tie breaker?

I think they just split the lotto balls.

[Sizzle]

I think they just split the lotto balls.

If you go by Chad Ford's Lottery game, the Jazz own a 7.6% chance and the Kings own a 7.5% chance. So it looks like (at least according to that) the Nets own the suckiness tiebreaker.

[MarkGrace]

I think they just split the lotto balls.

Coin flip like last year no?

[Jacob]

Coin flip like last year no?

They just split the lottery balls for the lotto. If they end up tied, NJ and Sac share the lotto balls for the 5th and 6th finisher. No tie-breaker. Both have the same % chance to win the lottery. Plus Jazz get their own lotto balls for ending up 12.

After the lotto, if neither team moves up, they do a coin flip. Winner gets 5th pick, loser gets 6th. Jazz lost that coin flip to Clippers last year for the Knicks pick.