"You Gotta Love It Baby" Official Jazz thread

[Sizzle]

I agree with MG, glad the Jazz didn't cave. There is too much risk to pay more than 10m per year right now. Hayward could have a major injury. He could look like he's destined to be a 2nd or 3rd fiddle (likely) and his 3 pt % will likely drop below 40% due to his new role. In that case, the Jazz make it clear that they will match any offer, and he may not even get one a la Pekovic with Minnesota this summer.. With the risk involved, even if the Jazz have to pay an extra 5-8 million over 4 years next summer, this is the smart move. Paul George made his money in the playoffs. Hayward won't have the same opportunity to impress. He'll not sniff the All-Start game, so he won't get a Cousins/George type offer. He is almost certain to get a Tyreke Evans offer, or better, but I'm sure they offered him that much already. Fortunately, Doc Rivers won't have any cap space!

Locke was on the radio making essentially the same argument, saying that for the Jazz, there is no upside to paying Hayward his full ask if it is below the amount that they had slotted to him. For example, if the Jazz felt his range was $11M per on a 4-year deal, and Haywards camp wanted $13M per on a 4-year deal, the Jazz have more leverage because of Hayward's bird rights. In otherwords, if he plays out the year, ears his extra $2M per (in this scenario) then the Jazz can either pay him his ask, or, if he tests the market, match the contract. As stated, there is little risk from the Jazz' perspective, which is why he felt like a deal was unlikely to get done.

Where I disagree that the Jazz have little/no risk is that you can potentially alienate the player by not budging. Few really know how far apart the two sides are, and, when the point was brought up to Luck, he did acknowledge that there is that risk, but put the onus back on Dennis Lindsay that he's negotiating in a way to make Hayward feel valued, that he knows that the Jazz want him to be a part of the organizations future, but also to help him see the big picture.

G-Time is an interesting player, and it will be interesting watching him this year to see what his value and role is.

[MarkGrace]

I agree with MG, glad the Jazz didn't cave. There is too much risk to pay more than 10m per year right now. Hayward could have a major injury. He could look like he's destined to be a 2nd or 3rd fiddle (likely) and his 3 pt % will likely drop below 40% due to his new role. In that case, the Jazz make it clear that they will match any offer, and he may not even get one a la Pekovic with Minnesota this summer.. With the risk involved, even if the Jazz have to pay an extra 5-8 million over 4 years next summer, this is the smart move. Paul George made his money in the playoffs. Hayward won't have the same opportunity to impress. He'll not sniff the All-Start game, so he won't get a Cousins/George type offer. He is almost certain to get a Tyreke Evans offer, or better, but I'm sure they offered him that much already. Fortunately, Doc Rivers won't have any cap space!

Big FA summer, not a lot of teams with space, unrestricted, etc. There was just no reason to cave. Rumors are the Jazz were offering something like 4 years at $10mm per and his camp wanted closer to $13mm. There is a chance the Jazz could end up paying more for him next summer than what they maybe could have had him at now, but I think the odds are in the Jazz favor of the contract being closer to what they were offering. If he goes out there and proves he's worth $12-13mm and some team sets the market there, then so be it. But right now there's no reason to lead off with what is likely a worst-case scenario in terms of dollars. They already did that once with AK and it was dumb negotiating. If some team gets crazy and puts an offer out there that overpays him, then you just got to let him walk.

[Sizzle]

Big FA summer, not a lot of teams with space, unrestricted, etc. There was just no reason to cave. Rumors are the Jazz were offering something like 4 years at $10mm per and his camp wanted closer to $13mm. There is a chance the Jazz could end up paying more for him next summer than what they maybe could have had him at now, but I think the odds are in the Jazz favor of the contract being closer to what they were offering. If he goes out there and proves he's worth $12-13mm and some team sets the market there, then so be it. But right now there's no reason to lead off with what is likely a worst-case scenario in terms of dollars. They already did that once with AK and it was dumb negotiating. If some team gets crazy and puts an offer out there that overpays him, then you just got to let him walk.

Chances are though, if he ends up playing well enough this year to get a contract more than the Jazz were offering, his play will have been well enough to "earn it". In which case, the Jazz probably win again.

The only real downside is potentially upsetting G.

[cougjunkie]

Chances are though, if he ends up playing well enough this year to get a contract more than the Jazz were offering, his play will have been well enough to "earn it". In which case, the Jazz probably win again.

The only real downside is potentially upsetting G.

Portland will throw $13 per at him with $25 mill due upfront.

[MarkGrace]

Portland will throw $13 per at him with $25 mill due upfront.

Preparing the offer sheet now.

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

Lots of Twittergasms going right now based in he SportVU info being made available on NBA.com. Having that stuff available is amazing.

[MarkGrace]

Assists, the key basketball statistic used to measure a player’s passing proficiency, is a fairly flawed measure, if you think about it. You throw a nice pass to a wide-open player, and that player makes an open jump-shot or layup, you get an assist. If he clangs the shot off the rim — not your fault — you don’t. Your value, as measured by assists, is often beyond your control.

Wouldn’t it be beneficial to know how many “assist opportunities” your favorite NBA player created? The ones his teammate converted into baskets, plus the one his teammates botched, plus the ones that led to free throws? Sure, this statistic still relies somewhat on teammates — they have to get open. Or on the aptitude of the defense — if the opponent has signed a non-aggression pact, it’s easier to pass the ball. But a player’s assist opportunities are a far more telling measure of his passing performance.

Barring any last-minute glitches, hoops fans will have access, starting on Friday, to such passing stats, and a whole new set of data delivering new layers of insight into basketball. On NBA.com’s expanded statistics page, fans will be able to see and sort info from STATS LLC’s SportVU Player Tracking system. In all 29 NBA arenas — there are 30 NBA teams, but remember, the Los Angeles Clippers and Lakers share the Staples Center — six cameras are installed in catwalks, tracking the movement of every player. A software program ingests all the data and spits out statistics like assist opportunities, the distance each player travels during a game (on Tuesday’s opening night, Blake Griffin ran 2.71 miles, tops among the six teams that played), and a player’s defensive impact (the Orlando Magic made just three of nine shots against Indiana’s 7’2″ center Roy Hibbert while Hibbert was defending the rim).

Rebounds also get a makeover. The total number of rebounds a player compiles often depends on factors outside his control. If the opposing team is shooting badly, for example, you can snatch more bricks off the boards. What’s more relevant: if a player is near the ball, at what rate does he go and grab it? “Rebound Chances” measures the number of times a player is within 3.5 feet of a rebound during a game: from there, SportVU calculates a player’s “rebound percentage,” based on the number of boards he actually grabs.

TIME got a sneak peak at the NBA’s Player Tracking site; it’s informative and easy to navigate. Other subcaterogies include a player’s performance when he drives to the basket, and how effective he is when he just catches the ball and shoots. In Miami’s first game, a 107-95 win over Chicago, Shane Battier, the king of finding himself open as Miami’s star players drive to the basket, shot four-for-four from three point range after catching, squaring, and firing away. A personal, if somewhat random, favorite: the data tells you how fast, on average, players were moving in a game. Congratulations to rookie Tony Snell and veteran Mike Dunleavy, both of the Chicago Bulls: you were the fastest players on Tuesday night, each moving an average of 4.9 miles per hour.

The teams have access to even more minutiae — the NBA plans to slowly run roll out more sophisticated player tracking numbers to fans — and can request custom reports from STATS. While 15 teams had SportVU cameras last season, after STATS signed a deal with the NBA this offseason to equip all 30 teams, the information is now much more robust. “You can almost come up with a way to quantify anything you can dream of,” says David Griffin, vice president of basketball operations for the Cleveland Cavaliers.

While front offices and coaches are taking analytics more seriously in the NBA, don’t expect an end to decision making based on intuition. “Oh Lord, I don’t think so,” says Griffin, when asked if gut-feelings are going out of the game. “Ultimately, empirical evidence answers questions that intuition brings, the ones you know to ask.” Says Brian Kopp, senior vice president of sports solutions at STATS, “The numbers are not meant to replace intuition. Where appropriate, they challenge it. In some cases, they confirm it.”

NBA executive vice president of operations and technology Steve Hellmuth, who spearheaded the SportVU deal from the league side, recalls talking to one coach about his plans to incorporate this new information into his game plans. The coach said some players, in his mind, could handle multiple bits of information better than others. “You have to plant those messages, while keeping the players fluid at the same time,” says Hellmuth. “That’s the art.”

Read more: NBA To Launch Advanced SportVU Site To Fans Friday | TIME.com http://keepingscore.blogs.time.com/2...#ixzz2jPnITKRt

Pretty exciting stuff.

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

Sam Amick says two teams are considering trade for Jimmer now that he is on an expiring deal, and then adds that Utah is not one if them.

[cougjunkie]

Sam Amick says two teams are considering trade for Jimmer now that he is on an expiring deal, and then adds that Utah is not one if them.

Usa today reported yesterday that six teams had already inquired.

Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk 2

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

Usa today reported yesterday that six teams had already inquired.

Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk 2

Amick's comment today was said to be an update on that. Said "report more accuraty should say two teams."

[Sizzle]

Amick's comment today was said to be an update on that. Said "report more accuraty should say two teams."

Has Sacto's asking price come down?

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

Has Sacto's asking price come down?

I don't think anyone knows what the asking price is or has been. But I think Jimmer's relative value has gone up slightly now that he isn't tied to a $3.1 final contract year. Sacramento can now use him in a trade as an expiring contract to improve their roster, or another team might be more willing to bring him on to give him a test run since if it doesn't work out they just let him walk.

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

Correct me if I'm mistaken, but I don't Hayward is not eligible for a "poison pill" contract escalator like Lin and Asik got. I've read that mentioned as a way for a team trying to persuade Utah to not match, but it won't be applicable in this case.

[Eddie]

.....Assists, the key basketball statistic used to measure a player’s passing proficiency, is a fairly flawed measure, if you think about it. You throw a nice pass to a wide-open player, and that player makes an open jump-shot or layup, you get an assist. If he clangs the shot off the rim — not your fault — you don’t. Your value, as measured by assists, is often beyond your control.

Wouldn’t it be beneficial to know how many “assist opportunities” your favorite NBA player created? The ones his teammate converted into baskets, plus the one his teammates botched, plus the ones that led to free throws? Sure, this statistic still relies somewhat on teammates — they have to get open. Or on the aptitude of the defense — if the opponent has signed a non-aggression pact, it’s easier to pass the ball. But a player’s assist opportunities are a far more telling measure of his passing performance.....

Just to be a little contrarian - I think there is value in the regular old "assists" stat.

Not every pass to a player who open and which might therefore be constituted as a scoring opportunity is created equal. Counting actual assists instead of potential assists takes into account the players propensity to make a good pass to someone who is in a position to score for that person. There is a different between giving Derek Favors the ball at the 3 pt line, where he's open, versus giving that same pass to Kyle Korver. Just like there's a different between giving Korver the ball in the paint versus doing the same for Favors.

If you are counting strait up assists - you get credit for getting the ball to the guy who is on a hot shooting streak but isn't wide open. If you are counting opportunities, you get credit for passing to the guy who hasn't made a basket in the last three games (hmmm...maybe there's a reason he's open.)

So that's my rant. I love the idea that more information is available. I'll bet guys like David Locke and David James will be wetting themselves with glee. (Locke, because he won't have to track all of this himself anymore.)

But to say that this set of information is more important than that information is pretty shallow and doesn't take into account the fact that just hitting the open guy with a pass doesn't necessarily increase your teams chances of scoring during that possession.

[MarkGrace]

Just to be a little contrarian - I think there is value in the regular old "assists" stat.

Not every pass to a player who open and which might therefore be constituted as a scoring opportunity is created equal. Counting actual assists instead of potential assists takes into account the players propensity to make a good pass to someone who is in a position to score for that person. There is a different between giving Derek Favors the ball at the 3 pt line, where he's open, versus giving that same pass to Kyle Korver. Just like there's a different between giving Korver the ball in the paint versus doing the same for Favors.

If you are counting strait up assists - you get credit for getting the ball to the guy who is on a hot shooting streak but isn't wide open. If you are counting opportunities, you get credit for passing to the guy who hasn't made a basket in the last three games (hmmm...maybe there's a reason he's open.)

So that's my rant. I love the idea that more information is available. I'll bet guys like David Locke and David James will be wetting themselves with glee. (Locke, because he won't have to track all of this himself anymore.)

Pretty much everything you're saying cuts more against the idea of the traditional assist than anything. ESPN already tracks "quality assist %," which helps break down that barrier between a guy who simply makes an easy pass to an open teammate and a guy who actually creates the scoring opportunity by breaking down the defense. The SportsVu information will continue to build on stuff like that. "Assist opportunities" is just one thing it will be able to measure, and just another way to look at passing that will be valuable. This technology will also help develop ways to look at passing that will take out the naturally subjective nature of an assist. It's exciting stuff.

But to say that this set of information is more important than that information is pretty shallow and doesn't take into account the fact that just hitting the open guy with a pass doesn't necessarily increase your teams chances of scoring during that possession.

The more you can isolate individual play down to the things under the individual's control, the more valuable it is in measuring performance. Assists have always been a bit like wins in baseball, or PER in football (which is why I'm not entirely on that bandwagon in terms of a measure of individual performance), and this stuff should help extract some of the aspects that are beyond the individual's control.