"You Gotta Love It Baby" Official Jazz thread

[MarkGrace]

Burke - projected warp 2.2

Scouting report
+ Pick-and-roll point guard with rare polish for a college point guard
+ Undersized and might struggle finishing against bigger defenders in the NBA
+ Must demonstrate he's not a defensive liability
Analysis
As a sophomore, Burke was arguably the nation's best college player, winning the four most prestigious player of the year awards. Yet NBA scouts were skeptical of his size, and Burke slipped to ninth in the NBA draft before the Jazz paired its first-round picks to trade up and make him their point guard of the future. Despite a rough baptism in the Orlando Pro Summer League, Burke is the likely starter.

Michigan played an NBA-style offense with three shooters around Burke's pick-and-rolls, and he used the well-spaced floor to live in the paint. Compared to most rookie point guards, he's skilled at using the screen, and his shooting ability means opponents can't lay off. Burke was perfectly content to find open teammates, something he'll probably have to do more frequently as a pro because he will have a tougher time finishing against shot-blockerss. Burke made just 34.3 percent of his 2-point attempts in Orlando and couldn't buy a 3-pointer, going 1-of-19 from beyond the arc. Both figures, especially the 3-point shooting, are out of line with his college translations.

Once he adds an in-between game, Burke should be fine offensively. The bigger concern is whether he can defend bigger opponents. At 6-foot-1, Burke is as big as many starting point guards, but he lacks the compact frame and strength of undersized peers like Ty Lawson and Chris Paul. Burke also can't compensate with elite athleticism the way many smaller players do. He figures to struggle on defense next season.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/preview2013/story/_/page/2013-14-uth-preview/utah-jazz-player-profiles

[MarkGrace]

Burks - projected warp .9

Scouting report
+ Combo guard who figures to settle in at shooting guard this season
+ Made progress as a shooter last year. Still most dangerous off the dribble
+ Good rebounder from the backcourt. More than enough size to defend shooting guards
Analysis
Much to the dismay of Utah fans, Burks lost his spot in the rotation early last season when Randy Foye got minutes at shooting guard instead of point guard. Burks earned more playing time as the season went along and saw regular action at point guard when the team was short-handed. With Foye's departure, Burks has a chance to claim the starting job at shooting guard in a Burke-Burks backcourt that would delight fans of homophones everywhere.

The Jazz debated whether Burks' future might lie at point guard because he's most effective attacking the basket with the ball in his hands. He's got some playmaking ability and the Utah offense ran well with him at the controls. As a shooting guard, Burks needs to continue to improve his outside shooting. He more than doubled his 3-pointer total from 15 to 33 in 2012-13, knocking down a competent 35.9 percent from beyond the arc. Burks is slightly more accurate inside the arc (37.8 percent from 16-23 feet, per Basketball-Reference.com), but those shots aren't as valuable.

At either backcourt position, Burks has defensive potential. He's got good size and quickness and the Jazz allowed 3.0 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, per NBA.com/Stats. Of course, that was mostly against second units; now Burks will have to check the league's best shooting guards, which might mean a learning curve. He's a good rebounder for a guard.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/preview2013/story/_/page/2013-14-uth-preview/utah-jazz-player-profiles

[MarkGrace]

Hayward - projected warp 6.7

Scouting report
+ Excellent outside shooter. Also capable of creating his own shot off the dribble
+ Has increased his usage rate quickly. Likely to be Jazz's go-to scorer
+ Decent defender who can still add strength. Average rebounder
Analysis
In what was a right of passage for the Jazz's young players last season, even Hayward spent most of the year on the bench before reclaiming his starting spot in March, presumably for good. Hayward still played starter's minutes and averaged a career-high 14.1 points per game, a figure he should easily surpass as Utah's primary option on offense in the last season of his rookie contract. (He's eligible for an extension through Oct. 31. That could keep him from becoming a restricted free agent next summer.)

After a down 2011-12, Hayward's 3-point percentage bounced back, and it should settle in just north of 40 percent from beyond the arc (SCHOENE says 41.1 percent). In combination with his ability to create plays, that makes Hayward a valuable offensive player. In two years, he's pushed his usage rate from 15.4 percent of the Jazz's plays as a rookie to 22.2 percent last season, and it could go up again. Hayward is also a very good passer for a small forward who can draw the defense and set up his teammates.

While Hayward's playmaking stands out more at small forward, the Jazz have historically defended better with him at shooting guard, where he's unlikely to play much this season. His long arms are an asset against smaller players, but bigger opponents can overpower him at times. Hayward should improve defensively as he adds strength.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/preview2013/story/_/page/2013-14-uth-preview/utah-jazz-player-profiles

[MarkGrace]

Favors - projected warp 8.4

Scouting report
+ Exceptional defensive instincts for a young player. Capable of defending on the perimeter
+ Quality shot blocker and rebounder. Controls the paint
+ Better at finishing than creating his own shots. A presence on the offensive glass
Analysis
After three seasons as a reserve, the No. 3 overall pick of the 2010 NBA Draft is ready to break through as a starter. Favors has gradually ramped up his minutes with no decline in his per-play performance, and SCHOENE projects that he'll average a double-double (15.8 points, 10.6 rebounds) in extended minutes this season. The Jazz will try to lock him to an extension this fall before Favors becomes a restricted free agent next summer, when his value could skyrocket.

Favors has Defensive Player of the Year potential. For a young player, his instincts are phenomenal. He is extraordinarily light on his feet for his size and is capable of blowing up a pick-and-roll and recovering to protect the paint. Inside, Favors is a good shot-blocker who swatted opponents more than 50 percent more frequently last season. He projects to rank among the league's leaders in blocks (SCHOENE has him eighth at 2.1 BPG) and doesn't sacrifice rebounding to contest shots. The only negative for Favors defensively is his foul rate. He averaged 5.0 fouls per 36 minutes, a figure he'll have to cut as a starter. SCHOENE projects that Favors will lead the league with 4.4 fouls per game.

So far, Favors' defense is ahead of his offense. But he's used plays at an above-average rate the last two seasons with around-average efficiency. Favors creates many of his own opportunities on the offensive glass and sets up teammates by moving without the ball. But he's not yet an efficient post scorer and has gotten relatively few opportunities as a roll man on the pick-and-roll.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/preview2013/story/_/page/2013-14-uth-preview/utah-jazz-player-profiles

[MarkGrace]

Kanter - projected warp 5

Scouting report
+ Extraordinarily strong. Bulls his way to the offensive glass
+ Elite finisher around the rim. Also capable of stepping away from the basket
+ Physical defender. Not a major shot-blocker. Below-average help instincts
Analysis
In his first season as a starter, Kanter will be a contender for most improved player. (Teammate Derrick Favors might be his biggest preseason competition.) However, Kanter will have a tough time matching the improvement he made from his rookie season to his second year, as he was far more effective after improving his diet and slimming down. April shoulder problems ended Kanter's campaign prematurely, but he was back on the court over the summer, and both he and Favors worked out with Jazz legend Karl Malone in Malone's new role with the organization.

Kanter went from using 17.4 percent of the Jazz's plays as a rookie to 22.5 percent last season, second among returning players behind Hayward. At the same time, Kanter was much more efficient offensively. In addition to the easy buckets he creates with putbacks and finishes at the rim, Kanter created more of his own offense in the post. He also showed improvement from midrange, making a solid 45.2 percent of his shots from 16-23 feet, per Basketball-Reference.com. But Kanter went the wrong direction in terms of taking care of the basketball, turning it over on 19.0 percent of the plays he used.

Playing next to Favors helps cover some of Kanter's defensive shortcomings. Because he doesn't get off the ground quickly, Kanter isn't a shot-blocker, and he's more useful as a post defender than offering help. Utah can crossmatch by putting Kanter on post threats and giving Favors more freedom to roam.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/preview2013/story/_/page/2013-14-uth-preview/utah-jazz-player-profiles

[MarkGrace]

SCHOENE projected state lines

Buke - 11.6/2.4/4.6
Burks - 11.1/3.4/2.1
Hayward - 16.2/3.9/3.7
Favors - 15.8/10.6/1.5
Kanter - 14.4/9.6/.9

Give me your over/under on those projected stat lines.

[MarkGrace]

Scouting report
+ Elite shooter who earned a roster spot with terrific play in summer league
+ Capable of handling the ball, but not a true point guard
+ Undersized defensively when matching up with shooting guards
Analysis
Arguably the best shooter in the draft, Clark went unselected out of mid-major power Belmont and earned his way into the NBA over the summer. He played for the Miami Heat in Orlando, averaging 16.4 PPG, and then switched to the Golden State Warriors in Las Vegas and won MVP of the title game with 33 points and seven 3-pointers in Golden State's win over the Phoenix Suns. That was enough for the Jazz to sign Clark to a two-year contract with $200,000 in guaranteed money this season, according to Mark Deeks.

Even translated from the Atlantic Sun to the NBA, Clark will unquestionably be an excellent 3-point shooter. He was more than a specialist in college and is also effective inside the arc. The big surprise from Clark's summer performance was that he showed the ability to run the point, something he was never asked to do at Belmont. Clark probably shouldn't run the position without assistance, but he and Burks could share ballhandling duties at times this season in Utah.

Such a lineup would work well because Clark is undersized for shooting guard at 6-foot-3, a key reason he slipped through the draft. The Jazz might be able to get away with Clark defending backup shooting guards. He's good at playing the passing lanes but a poor rebounder.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/preview2013/story/_/page/2013-14-uth-preview/utah-jazz-player-profiles

I've always liked the idea of a Burks/Clark pairing.

[Donuthole]

SCHOENE projected state lines

Buke - 11.6/2.4/4.6
Burks - 11.1/3.4/2.1
Hayward - 16.2/3.9/3.7
Favors - 15.8/10.6/1.5
Kanter - 14.4/9.6/.9

Give me your over/under on those projected stat lines.

On points only:
Burke - 11.6 Under
Burks - 11.1 Over
Hayward - 16.2 Over
Favors - 15.8 Under
Kanter - 14.4 Over

[smokymountainrain]

SCHOENE projected state lines

Buke - 11.6/2.4/4.6
Burks - 11.1/3.4/2.1
Hayward - 16.2/3.9/3.7
Favors - 15.8/10.6/1.5
Kanter - 14.4/9.6/.9

Give me your over/under on those projected stat lines.

On points, Burke will be under 11. Favors will be under 10.6 rebs. Other than those two, those numbers look about right on to me.

(edit) After reading Donut's post, I realize mine was a bit of a dodge.


Rebs:
Burke - under
Burks - over
Hayward - over
Favors - under
Kanter - over

[MarkGrace]

I don't think Burke gets to 11.6 either. I'm saying 9. G-Time will also average +4 apg.

[Sizzle]

Burke - 11.6 Under
Burks - 11.1 Under
Hayward - 16.2 Under
Favors - 15.8 Under
Kanter - 14.4 Over

I think the Jazz will be 95 ppg or less bad this year. If I'm guessing, I'm slating it around:

Burke: 8
Burks: 10
Hayward: 15
Favors: 14.5
Kanter: 15.5

63 ppg from those 5 guys.

I think Rush chips in 8.5.
Jefferson chips in 7.5.
Marvin is going to be 6.5.
Lucas will be around 3.5.
Clark around 2.5.
Biedrins around 3.5.

[MarkGrace]

Burke - 11.6 Under
Burks - 11.1 Under
Hayward - 16.2 Under
Favors - 15.8 Under
Kanter - 14.4 Over

I love the pessimism

[Blueintheface]

So who had the highest warp?

[Jacob]

SCHOENE projected state lines

Buke - 11.6/2.4/4.6
Burks - 11.1/3.4/2.1
Hayward - 16.2/3.9/3.7
Favors - 15.8/10.6/1.5
Kanter - 14.4/9.6/.9

Give me your over/under on those projected stat lines.

My optimistic take:

On points, all will be over, but Favors and Burke might be a bit under. I know Burke has shown nothing, but he can make 2 3's/game, even if he hasn't shown it since college. That gets him halfway to 12. Depends on how the Jazz use him. This should not be a point guard dominated offense. And whoever ends up coming off the bench is going to have to score. Either Burks or Burke will be coming off the bench, and who else will score in the 2nd unit? We should see a lot of free throws from Favors and Kanter.

Everyone but Burke will be over on rebounds.

Burke will be under on assists, Hayward and Burks better be over. Same with the bigs. Kick to Burke for 3 with Hayward running more of the offense.

[Sizzle]

I love the pessimism

I think Rush, Jefferson and Marvin are going to play bigger minutes than any of us want them to this year. I think Marvin plays some at the 4 though to help offset some of the logjam at the 2.

I wouldn't be shocked either to see the Jazz play those three bigger minutes early in the year, hoping to drive the value of those three up enough to create some sort of trade deadline demand for a team looking to offload a non-contributing player for someone who can help a team make a run in exchange for expiring and picks/assets.

I can't figure out how bad this team is going to be.