BYU vs Gonzaga Thread

[jay santos]

You're not very smart. It's one thing to not understand and say you don't understand math. It's another thing to be an idiot with numbers and say you understand.

we avg 22.7 3 PTA/Gm.

with three big men inside, i assume we'll take 15% more 3pt shots or 26 total.

Making 25% = 6.5 3pt buckets or ~20 pts

We take 61.1 shots per gm (inc 3pt). I assume we take an addl 3 2pt shots plus the addl 3 3pt shots for a total of 67 shots per game. If 26 of those shots are 3pts of which we shoot 25% and shoot a total of 40% overall, that means we shoot roughly 49% of our 2pt shots (41 overall), or 20.3 made.

That equals 19.5 points from3s and 40.6 points from 2s for a total of 60.1 points.

We shoot 23.8 freethrows per game with a 75.6% success rate. Since we are taking roughly 10% more shots under my assumptions here, I also assume that our FTA will increase pari passu, or 26.1 attempts in total. 75.6% * 26.1 = 19.7 points from FT.

Total BYU score of 78 points

Gonzaga averages 75.9 points a game but if you look at the strength of the defenses they've played, it's TWICE as worse as the defenses the Cougars have faced. I assume they get to 73-75 points in a close one.

I'm not nuts, I just have asperberger's and by the way, fuck you.

Problems:
1. We get an additional 6 shots a game and your explanation is due to higher mix of 3 pt shot vs 2 pt shot (yet the incremental number of 3 pt FGA is only three)
2. You use absolutes for FGA for BYU and Washington using season averages with no comparison of opponents, so you're using apples and oranges. To illustrate, a terrible fast paced team might average 60 FGA attempt per game and a great slow paced team might average 50 FGA attempt per game. When they meet, there's no way both teams will hit their average. It's just a terrible method to predict the outcome of a game.
3. You use offensive stats only, no defense.
4. (the biggest issue) both teams are trending in the opposite direction. Everyone (except you) talks about BYU being not as good without Davies (even Obama!), and everyone is taking note of Gonzaga being white hot these last ten games. So you can throw season wide stats out the window. Sure, looking at season wide stats we're obvious winners. We're top 10 in all the computer rankings and Gonzaga's #40ish. I could present a case using data proving BYU is the clear favorite using ten different methods that all would be more complete and convincing than yours, but season wide data doesn't make sense in this case.

I try to use less inciting language than I used to on message boards, but I'll throw that out the window since you don't play by those rules. No offense, Viking, but your analysis is like my wife's. She comes home from a kid's game and says "you guys need to practice your three pointers. You were down 12 and all you needed was a few three pointers in a row and you would have been right back in it." My son and I have given up we just smile and laugh at each other. Viking, I can see you getting your first gig as a coach and spending three hours a day practicing three pointers. You go into your first game and your team gets its ass kicked because they can't make a pass or get off an open shot or get a rebound or defend. You go back to practice yelling at your kids for missing so many three pointers in the game. It's the most remedial analysis of a basketball team you can possibly make.

[CJF]

Perusing the Zags boards, they're just as nervous as we are. They have faced a slew of talented guards this year looking at their schedule: Tu Holloway, LaceDarius Dunn, Ben Hansborough, Mickey, McConnell, Jacob Pullen, Klay Thompson, etc. But no Jimmer.

Viking I don't know why you keep hyping David Stockton. He's not great. He's a walk-on reserve. He's not a key contributor to this team.

I still really like this matchup for us. I really think this is winnable. We have to shoot better than we did yesterday though. And if the Zags shoot like they did yesterday game over. But I expect us to play better than we did yesterday. One player though, can beat this Gonzaga team. It will be much easier if Jax, Chuck, and company show up too. So I hope they do.

I think Chuck has to have a good game. I think BYU needs to slash Gonzaga to death. Jimmer driving and Chuck slashing is the key in my opinion. It would be nice if Emery could find his shot again. I don't see anyway possible Gonzaga big men don't dominate the BYU front court. BYU guards have to dominate the Zag guards and get their big men out of position in help situations. It would also be nice if Jimmer got super start ref treatment tomorrow.

[RC Vikings]

After Saturday and saying adios to Jimmer you'll be where Pepperdine is now.

Just image if BYU really was located where Pepperdine is. I bet you could throw the HC out the window.

[pellegrino]

KD has been absent from the arena in the past 24 hours and I can't figure that out. I need a sermon from the church of KD!

[jay santos]

I think Chuck has to have a good game. I think BYU needs to slash Gonzaga to death. Jimmer driving and Chuck slashing is the key in my opinion. It would be nice if Emery could find his shot again. I don't see anyway possible Gonzaga big men don't dominate the BYU front court. BYU guards have to dominate the Zag guards and get their big men out of position in help situations. It would also be nice if Jimmer got super start ref treatment tomorrow.

Emery might be the one hurt the most by Davies being out. He's just not getting open looks. He was a little selfish yesterday, forcing jumpers when he's not open. He's frustrated.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but I wonder if it would be good to go long stretches with Anderson in. 1) he can guard that big guy and bang with him 2) we might be able to go inside out and keep Noah on the perimeter where he's more dangerous, trick them into thinking they need to guard Anderson.

[CJF]

Emery might be the one hurt the most by Davies being out. He's just not getting open looks. He was a little selfish yesterday, forcing jumpers when he's not open. He's frustrated.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but I wonder if it would be good to go long stretches with Anderson in. 1) he can guard that big guy and bang with him 2) we might be able to go inside out and keep Noah on the perimeter where he's more dangerous, trick them into thinking they need to guard Anderson.

I was wondering the same thing. After about two trips down the court I don't think they'll guard Anderson much and that might make it more difficult for us to get to the rim. However, if Anderson rolls to the basket and actually catches the ball, it could work a time or two.

[Surfah]

Emery might be the one hurt the most by Davies being out. He's just not getting open looks. He was a little selfish yesterday, forcing jumpers when he's not open. He's frustrated.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but I wonder if it would be good to go long stretches with Anderson in. 1) he can guard that big guy and bang with him 2) we might be able to go inside out and keep Noah on the perimeter where he's more dangerous, trick them into thinking they need to guard Anderson.

I still like Hartsock on Sacre though he gives up height. Sacre is no banger. He doesn't have much in the way of offensive moves. He's got a great body but he's not skilled. I am afraid that Anderson will just foul too much. Sacre has turned into a pretty good FT shooter this year after being pretty bad the rest of his career.

Last night Jax forced some stuff because he couldn't get his shot. They defended him really well. Like Jimmer said after the game they kept forcing him left but they never sagged off Jax so he kept going to the rim. If that guy helps down, Jax gets an open look off a Jimmer dish, but it just doesn't happen. I was surprised by Jax' lack of patience. It was evident on the defensive end as he overplayed (more than normal) several passes allowing him to get burned.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Geez, what a pointless little pissing contest that was.

[Guest]

Emery might be the one hurt the most by Davies being out. He's just not getting open looks. He was a little selfish yesterday, forcing jumpers when he's not open. He's frustrated.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but I wonder if it would be good to go long stretches with Anderson in. 1) he can guard that big guy and bang with him 2) we might be able to go inside out and keep Noah on the perimeter where he's more dangerous, trick them into thinking they need to guard Anderson.

I think having Anderson in on Defense is ok but the guy is so terrible on Offense it is painful to watch. And, he is black hole, meaning the guy will not kick it back out and instead take a really bad shot he has no business taking and no chance of making it.

We can go through the numbers and all that crap but the bottom line in winning this game rests with Emery's ability to make his outside shot. He has been in one of his slumps where he can't throw the rock into the ocean. I think we will rebound ok and I imagine we will most likely zone these clowns up to take Sacre out of the game. Junkie is right about Sacre. He is not that good and most of his makes come from clean up on the glass. He is not a force on the block but then again we can let him camp out a foot a way from the basket either.

[FMCoug]

Geez, what a pointless little pissing contest that was.

My sentiments exactly.

Go Cougs!!!

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[byu71]

I am sure you would like an update on the grandsons BB tourny down here in St. George. 10 year old who is playing with 11 year olds is up 2 games to none. 19-1 and 19-2. He 5-8 in two games.

10 year old who is playing with his own age group is down 0 wins to two losses. 1-17 and 3-14. He is 0-5 in two games.

Grandson two is going to make his sports fame by wrestling.

Both are great kids and have avoided me after a big hug and are hanging out together doing things I can't.

Sorry for putting this here, but didn't want to start a whole new thread and I am watching the tourny on TV. I think KC has to stop driving so much. 1 success to every 3 is not so good results.

[RC Vikings]

I am sure you would like an update on the grandsons BB tourny down here in St. George. 10 year old who is playing with 11 year olds is up 2 games to none. 19-1 and 19-2. He 5-8 in two games.

10 year old who is playing with his own age group is down 0 wins to two losses. 1-17 and 3-14. He is 0-5 in two games.

Shit I had Grandson two advancing in my bracket.

[TripletDaddy]

Geez, what a pointless little pissing contest that was.

You've been a bit too conservative with the "oh brother" hammer lo these many months. Don't be afraid to cleanse the temple every now and then.

[Green Monstah]

Look, I think you're a moron, but you're definitely a pussy. You call me nuts. I present the data and since, you've got jack shit in your defense. So offer it up and if I'm wrong, I'll admit it.

Hey, keep your "not as big a tool as RedSox" streak alive. Just walk away from the keyboard.

[Green Monstah]

Emery might be the one hurt the most by Davies being out. He's just not getting open looks. He was a little selfish yesterday, forcing jumpers when he's not open. He's frustrated.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but I wonder if it would be good to go long stretches with Anderson in. 1) he can guard that big guy and bang with him 2) we might be able to go inside out and keep Noah on the perimeter where he's more dangerous, trick them into thinking they need to guard Anderson.

He's (Emery) not exactly helping himself out either. Missing poorly when he is open. He needs a confidence booster.

If Hartsock gets into foul trouble, then he's going to have to. Anderson has shown flashes at times, but I think that dude is pissed off at the world.