BYU vs Gonzaga Thread

[Art Vandelay]

Gonzaga -1.5. Does this make you feel like a total dumb ass? It should but I doubt it will.

http://www.jvsportspicks.com/tag/byu...ga-vegas-odds/

Everywhere i look shows it a pick em game. It will be interesting to see how the wise guys feel about this. Rose and Few are two the coaches the sharps and wise guys usually like, especially on a quick turnaround. Expect for the game in ABQ, BYU has played very, very well in close games this year.

[ERCougar]

Gonzaga -1.5. Does this make you feel like a total dumb ass? It should but I doubt it will.

http://www.jvsportspicks.com/tag/byu...ga-vegas-odds/

It opened this morning at BYU -1. Then a bunch of amateurs saw the scores from last night and threw money on Gonzaga. That should tell you something. We'll see where it ends up.

[TripletDaddy]

Geez, counselor, your citation is only to "projected" odds, meaning it's the author's guess, kind of like yours. The current odds by Vegas are "pick em", meaning both contestants in your pissing contest are equal in dumbassdom.

SeattleUte is clearly operating on little rest, having likely been pacing his floor the entire night. If BYU wins tomorrow, I predict SeattleUte will have the worst week of sleep of his life.

[Goatnapper'96]

Well put. These are exactly the keys I'd watch for. If Jax can't get his game going tomorrow against a poor perimeter defense, we don't deserve Sweet 16. And I'd argue these exact same keys if Davies were here.

I don't think BYU would need double digit points from Emery if Davies were still playing, they would only need double digit points from one or the other.

I agree with the sentiments that Emery is the one most negatively affected by Brandon's departure. I haven't watched enough of the Zags to determine if they play really poor perimeter defense. I will comment on it late Saturday evening. I would really like to see Jackson have one more spectacular offensive night and play well enough for BYU to get into the Sweet 16. The kid deserves it. Further, you and I deserve it.

[ERCougar]

In fairness, you could argue those same key points for every single game. Jimmer needs to play well, jax needs to play well, and one other needs to step up and play well for us to win.

My guess is that zags have a similar game plan. If 3 guys play well, they probably think they will win.

Totally agree, except that this is a little more specific than random 3 guys playing well. I'm just pointing out that we've never been totally (or even very) dependent on Davies. We're looking bad lately because Jax has been looking bad. I guess that might be due to Davies, but I don't buy it. He's missing shots that he usually makes.

[Flystripper]

It opened this morning at BYU -1. Then a bunch of amateurs saw the scores from last night and threw money on Gonzaga. That should tell you something. We'll see where it ends up.

wise guys are usually first movers. It take longer for armatures and fans to catch up. but the game is a pick'em

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

I don't know about being keys for the game, but it seems these things need to change in order to increase the likelihood of a BYU win:

1) KC, Emery, and Chuck need to be more discerning about when they bring the ball up the court. If it is off a long rebound or turnover, terrific...get out and push. But they do such a mediocre job of creating for themselves or for others on the break that it is almost never preferable for them to push the ball up on the dribble as opposed to handing it off to Jimmer. If they'd just pass it off and get their butts down the court the defense is so focused on Fredette on a break situation that either he or one of those three will get a good look.

2) At what point does the coaching staff draw some attention for Emery's failure to adjust his game on offense? It is incredible how completely unresponsive his defenders are to his continued pump fakes. They don't even look like they want to budge, let alone actually react. They know for certain that Emery isn't dribbling past them so there is no need to go for the fake. It doesn't seem overly difficult to point that out on film a million times over and to tell Emery that the next 5 times he gets the ball with a defender within 3 feet that he's going to drive, even if he does go in and do his crazy jump-lean left-handed lay-up thingy.

[jay santos]

I don't know about being keys for the game, but it seems these things need to change in order to increase the likelihood of a BYU win:

1) KC, Emery, and Chuck need to be more discerning about when they bring the ball up the court. If it is off a long rebound or turnover, terrific...get out and push. But they do such a mediocre job of creating for themselves or for others on the break that it is almost never preferable for them to push the ball up on the dribble as opposed to handing it off to Jimmer. If they'd just pass it off and get their butts down the court the defense is so focused on Fredette on a break situation that either he or one of those three will get a good look.

2) At what point does the coaching staff draw some attention for Emery's failure to adjust his game on offense? It is incredible how completely unresponsive his defenders are to his continued pump fakes. They don't even look like they want to budge, let alone actually react. They know for certain that Emery isn't dribbling past them so there is no need to go for the fake. It doesn't seem overly difficult to point that out on film a million times over and to tell Emery that the next 5 times he gets the ball with a defender within 3 feet that he's going to drive, even if he does go in and do his crazy jump-lean left-handed lay-up thingy.

Emery needs to lose the pump fake thing. He's more fluid when he catches and shoots. He elevates so high on his shot, he doesn't need to be very open to do catch and shoot. But when he catches, pauses, pump fake, then lifts he's out of rhythm. Catch and shoot. If you catch and you're guy's too tight to shoot, then pass.

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

It opened this morning at BYU -1. Then a bunch of amateurs saw the scores from last night and threw money on Gonzaga. That should tell you something. We'll see where it ends up.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-...dds/las-vegas/

It opened in Vegas as a pick.

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

wise guys are usually first movers. It take longer for armatures and fans to catch up. but the game is a pick'em

Yeah, if you ever subscribe to the well know gamblers they tell you that you have 5-10 minutes after they update to bet before the action moves. Either from money coming in or the house changing the line in anticipation of money coming in.

[Art Vandelay]

Yeah, if you ever subscribe to the well know gamblers they tell you that you have 5-10 minutes after they update to bet before the action moves. Either from money coming in or the house changing the line in anticipation of money coming in.

88% of early money on Zags has moved the line to BYU +1. I'm sure SU will somehow tell us this is what he knew/meant all along.

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

88% of early money on Zags has moved the line to BYU +1. I'm sure SU will somehow tell us this is what he knew/meant all along.

149.5 over/under, that probably means the 1st half in around 68. I would hammer that line if I were in Vegas today.

[ERCougar]

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-...dds/las-vegas/

It opened in Vegas as a pick.

Or as BYU -1

http://www.madduxsports.com/line_his...ate=2011-03-19

(speaking of pointless pissing matches... )

[SeattleUte]

Geez, counselor, your citation is only to "projected" odds, meaning it's the author's guess, kind of like yours. The current odds by Vegas are "pick em", meaning both contestants in your pissing contest are equal in dumbassdom.

It's now swung to -1 Gonzaga (if you're wagering as of right now).

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-...dds/las-vegas/

Here's what I really think. This spread is a sucker punch for the people who only follow college basketball during March Madness. Everyone has heard of the great white hype Jimmer. People forget that these Gonzaga players were highly ranked, bore high expectations, higher than BYU in the pre-season, and they are now playing the kind of basketball everyone expected at the outset. Injuries, bad chemsitry, dissention, etc. now seem to be behind them, while BYU has entered the kind of rough patch Gonzaga experienced early on. But doofuses don't think of these intangibles.

Have you ever heard the saying timing is everything? Wouldn't it be ironic if this Gonzaga team, so dissapointing to Few in so many ways, turned out to be his final four team? It happens all the time. I'm feeling some destiny mojo gathering on Gonzaga's side here. Regardless, we all saw the two games yesterday, and clearly Gonzaga looked stronger, more polished, in a better place than BYU.

On the other hand, if there is such a thing as universal justice Brandon Davies will be avenged.

[jay santos]

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-...dds/las-vegas/

It opened in Vegas as a pick.

Hey you guys that think Davies doesn't matter, remember when I said let's wait and see what Vegas puts the odds at.

Sagarin rankings (includes yesterday's games)
BYU #6 rating of 90.5
Gonzaga #33 rating of 84.6
implies BYU's a six point favorite

My estimation was no Davies drops us down to #28 which would be rating of 84.9 and puts the game at a pick em.