BYU vs Gonzaga Thread

[Color Me Badd Fan]

oops wrong thread.

[TripletDaddy]

KILL GONZAGA!!!!

DIE GONZAGA!!!!

[Jacob]

I was hoping we could avoid teams with good big men. Unfortunately, this is basketball. I'm pessimistic that we can beat Gonzaga. It will take a heroic effort by Jimmer.

[cougjunkie]

Sacre shoots under 50% from the floor and averaged 12 and 6 in a pretty mediocre WCC. Those are not great numbers for a 7 footer.

Gray was their leading scorer with 13.8 per game. However he barely shot 40% from the floor and 34% from three. Not great.

Elias Harris is averaged 12 and 6 as well shot 51% from the floor.

Off the bench Sacres backup Dower shot 57% from the floor and averages 7 points per game in only 13 minutes.

Their front line is pretty big starting 7'0, 6'7, 6'7 their starting guards go 6'5 and 6'0.

We will really need to keep them off the glass. As a team they are 21st nationally in rebounding margin. They are also 22nd in FG% defense.

[cougjunkie]

Sacre is the least of my worries. Noah can contain him. Gray is the type of player that can kill us. Lanky wing who can slash and has range. Elias Harris too. Those two will be tough matchups for KC and Chuck.

Tonight they couldn't miss. And their rebounding was really impressive. They would have beat most teams in this tournament tonight. Aside from the rebounding, St. Johns played pretty well. If they do the same Saturday we will lose.

We are going to zone the hell out of them and have to rebound out of the zone. They don't have great shooters. However they did outrebound St. Johns tonight 41-17.

That won't happen against BYU think of this as the BYU vs New Mexico game for St. Johns. It was their first game without Kennedy (their version of Davies) and they had no idea how to adjust.

[Surfah]

ESPN's predictor for this game:

Decision Tree Model

Leverages hundreds of team stats and contextual game information.

Zags 15% BYU 85%

Power Ratings Model

Analyzes each team's scoring margins and schedule strength.

Zags 26% BYU 74%

Similar Games Model

Based on results of past games between statistically similar teams.

Zags 30% BYU 70%

Simulation Model

Driven by advanced play-by-play computer simulation of game.

Zags 32% BYU 68%

Seed Difference

Historical tournament win odds for teams with seed difference of 8.

Zags 27% BYU 73%

So the computers really like us in this game. However, the computers don't take Davies absence into account. But I still like our chances in this game. A lot.

[TripletDaddy]

It is cool matching up against a WCC foe with a nationally recognized coach at the helm, that has a long tradition of winning, that has a passionate fan base, that fills its arena, that garners TV ratings, and that is always playing in the tournament.

That is one thing BYU has been lacking in the MWC....a peer that merits respect and that is continually raising the profile of the conference.

I think then entire country will be watching. Should be a great game.

[Surfah]

We are going to zone the hell out of them and have to rebound out of the zone. They don't have great shooters. However they did outrebound St. Johns tonight 41-17.

That won't happen against BYU think of this as the BYU vs New Mexico game for St. Johns. It was their first game without Kennedy (their version of Davies) and they had no idea how to adjust.

Right. I think we zone them too. We double the post like crazy. We can't let Gray penetrate the zone though.

[Donuthole]

Right. I think we zone them too. We double the post like crazy. We can't let Gray penetrate the zone though.

Abouo matches up well with Gray, IMO. Much better than against Dahlman. If he can stay on the court, I like our chances.

[CJF]

You're not very smart. It's one thing to not understand and say you don't understand math. It's another thing to be an idiot with numbers and say you understand.

we avg 22.7 3 PTA/Gm.

with three big men inside, i assume we'll take 15% more 3pt shots or 26 total.

Making 25% = 6.5 3pt buckets or ~20 pts

We take 61.1 shots per gm (inc 3pt). I assume we take an addl 3 2pt shots plus the addl 3 3pt shots for a total of 67 shots per game. If 26 of those shots are 3pts of which we shoot 25% and shoot a total of 40% overall, that means we shoot roughly 49% of our 2pt shots (41 overall), or 20.3 made.

That equals 19.5 points from3s and 40.6 points from 2s for a total of 60.1 points.

We shoot 23.8 freethrows per game with a 75.6% success rate. Since we are taking roughly 10% more shots under my assumptions here, I also assume that our FTA will increase pari passu, or 26.1 attempts in total. 75.6% * 26.1 = 19.7 points from FT.

Total BYU score of 78 points

Gonzaga averages 75.9 points a game but if you look at the strength of the defenses they've played, it's TWICE as worse as the defenses the Cougars have faced. I assume they get to 73-75 points in a close one.

I'm not nuts, I just have asperberger's and by the way, fuck you.

Ha! You sure showed me that you're not nuts.

[CJF]

just smart. good with numbers. bad with people

still, you're sort of a moron, if i had to guess.

I happen to think you're bad with both in this case.

You assume a lot of things in your explanation that quite frankly you don't explain. I can be good with numbers 48 hours in advance if you allow me to make huge assumptions also.

[LiveCoug]

BYU|84
Spokane Tech|72

[TripletDaddy]

just smart. good with numbers. bad with people

still, you're sort of a moron, if i had to guess.

If you only knew....

[SeattleUte]

It is cool matching up against a WCC foe with a nationally recognized coach at the helm, that has a long tradition of winning, that has a passionate fan base, that fills its arena, that garners TV ratings, and that is always playing in the tournament.

That is one thing BYU has been lacking in the MWC....a peer that merits respect and that is continually raising the profile of the conference.

I think then entire country will be watching. Should be a great game.

This is well stated. Put another way, Saturday is BYU's introduction to an epoch of eating Gonzaga's shit year after year. I saw both games tonight and CW got it exactly right--Wofford looked like a high school team, and Gonzaga looked super athletic and well meshed. I'm being serious now (unlike my Wofford prediction); the only chance you guys have is if Jimmer can hit about 20 of those 40 footers he likes to jack up.

I'm still laughing at Viking saying that Gonzaga has three talented big men but that's a good thing for BYU.

[TripletDaddy]

This is well stated.