BYU vs Gonzaga Thread

[Viking]

I'm not sure who you convinced of that.

Look, I think you're a moron, but you're definitely a pussy. You call me nuts. I present the data and since, you've got jack shit in your defense. So offer it up and if I'm wrong, I'll admit it.

[creekster]

I just showed how shooting 25% from three but w/greater frequency (as could be EASILY predicted against a team with 3 big men) can win the game.

but doesn't the lower percentage give zaga more boards and so more possessions? and if they have three bigs to one for us dont they have a higher percentage and perhaps a higher rate of foul shooting? How can you adjust our season figures to account for their personnel and not adjust their averages to account for our personnel?

[creekster]

Look, I think you're a moron, but you're definitely a pussy. You call me nuts. I present the data and since, you've got jack shit in your defense. So offer it up and if I'm wrong, I'll admit it.

Go to bed. You are not making yourself look good.

[Jacob]

I just showed how shooting 25% from three but w/greater frequency (as could be EASILY predicted against a team with 3 big men) can win the game.

I thought you were going to bed. I'd be surprised if BYU won a single game all year shooting the percentages you mentioned.

Your conclusions are pretty ridiculous. No need to dig in deeper than that.

We let a horrible TCU team stick around till the end of the game last time we shot close to as bad as you propose. 26% and 42%. We only scored 64. We may have lost to even them had we shot as poorly as you propose.

[CJF]

Look, I think you're a moron, but you're definitely a pussy. You call me nuts. I present the data and since, you've got jack shit in your defense. So offer it up and if I'm wrong, I'll admit it.

How about you go look at the data from the San Diego State game last weekend.

Three big guys. Check. BYU shot 25% from 3. Check. BYU shot 33% overall. So ASSuming BYU makes 1 more 3 in your formula and 4 more regular field goals to increase the overall shot total, which by the way you still can't explain, BYU adds 11 points. BYU still loses the game by double digits.

All of your "math" is ASSuming Davies on the court. BYU out rebounded their opponets this year by 3 a game. Davies spread the floor better allowing a higher shooting precentage. And they were tougher inside against bigger teams. Your math doesn't add up to the current BYU team.

[CJF]

I thought you were going to bed. I'd be surprised if BYU won a single game all year shooting the percentages you mentioned.

Your conclusions are pretty ridiculous. No need to dig in deeper than that.

We let a horrible TCU team stick around till the end of the game last time we shot close to as bad as you propose. 26% and 42%. We only scored 64. We may have lost to even them had we shot as poorly as you propose.

BYU shot those percentages tonight. So it isn't impossible to shoot poorly and win. Against a team that is a better rebounding team and who most likely will score much more consistently in the paint and control the clock a little more, it is very unlikely. Some magical way BYU will get about 10 more shots and several more free throws against Gonzaga. Can't argue magical data.

[Jacob]

BYU shot those percentages tonight. So it isn't impossible to shoot poorly and win. Against a team that is a better rebounding team and who most likely will score much more consistently in the paint and control the clock a little more, it is very unlikely. Some magical way BYU will get about 10 more shots and several more free throws against Gonzaga. Can't argue magical data.

I guess we did shoot almost that badly tonight. But our weak opponent shot even worse. I wouldn't expect any of our remaining opponents to shoot so poorly.

[Viking]

Go to bed. You are not making yourself look good.

Yes up at 3am not good for anyone, esp me.

To respond to your earlier question, see my FG % assumption. More 3s at a slightly lower % means longer rebound, means more inside arc 12-foot jump shots

[Viking]

I thought you were going to bed. I'd be surprised if BYU won a single game all year shooting the percentages you mentioned.

Your conclusions are pretty ridiculous. No need to dig in deeper than that.

We let a horrible TCU team stick around till the end of the game last time we shot close to as bad as you propose. 26% and 42%. We only scored 64. We may have lost to even them had we shot as poorly as you propose.

CSU is scarier than Gonzaga by the numbers. We would beat them w or w/o davies. We have won games with exactly thoses stats.

The Zags are RPI 56. I would argue that we might be 5 spots lower on RPI w/o Davies all season but you guys totally and completely miss the Davies/no Davies point which is that Jimmer + 0 normally means a tough game, if not a loss (plenty of games where Davies was a 0) but Jimmer + 1 guy scoring 12-15 points normally means a win.

[CJF]

CSU is scarier than Gonzaga by the numbers. We would beat them w or w/o davies. We have won games with exactly thoses stats.

The Zags are RPI 56. I would argue that we might be 5 spots lower on RPI w/o Davies all season but you guys totally and completely miss the Davies/no Davies point which is that Jimmer + 0 normally means a tough game, if not a loss (plenty of games where Davies was a 0) but Jimmer + 1 guy scoring 12-15 points normally means a win.

You think we win both CSU games without Davies? You really are nuts.

[Surfah]

Why is everyone made that Viking is predicting wins? I might not agree with his reasoning either, but I like the result he's predicting. Buck up. Go Cougars.

[CJF]

Why is everyone made that Viking is predicting wins? I might not agree with his reasoning either, but I like the result he's predicting. Buck up. Go Cougars.

Nobody is mad that he is predicting a win. Just questioning how he is coming to that conclussion. I think BYU wins, but they won't do it by somehow finding more shots than normal and shooting a lower percentage on those shots.

[Surfah]

Ken Pom has BYU 77-74 with 62% chance of winning.

[doctorcoug]

Ken Pom has BYU 77-74 with 62% chance of winning.

He's a dumb ass. What the hell does he know?

[Surfah]

Perusing the Zags boards, they're just as nervous as we are. They have faced a slew of talented guards this year looking at their schedule: Tu Holloway, LaceDarius Dunn, Ben Hansborough, Mickey, McConnell, Jacob Pullen, Klay Thompson, etc. But no Jimmer.

Viking I don't know why you keep hyping David Stockton. He's not great. He's a walk-on reserve. He's not a key contributor to this team.

I still really like this matchup for us. I really think this is winnable. We have to shoot better than we did yesterday though. And if the Zags shoot like they did yesterday game over. But I expect us to play better than we did yesterday. One player though, can beat this Gonzaga team. It will be much easier if Jax, Chuck, and company show up too. So I hope they do.