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Te Occidere Possunt Sed Te Edere Non Possunt Nefas Est. -
Assuming no major movement in the last week my prediction is trump doesn't pick up any states he lost to Clinton and loses Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Arizona is right on the edge but I think he ultimately holds it and everything else he won in 2016. So Biden wins but only by 20-40 electoral votes so we get to listen to conspiracy theories and court challenges for two and a half months.Originally posted by BlueK View Post
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I agree. I just don't see any meaningful momentum for Trump in the battlefield states. They all have consistently shown a Biden lead, albeit narrowing as it gets close to the election. If there were wild swings in any of these, I would suspect some poll problems.Originally posted by Omaha 680 View PostAssuming no major movement in the last week my prediction is trump doesn't pick up any states he lost to Clinton and loses Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Arizona is right on the edge but I think he ultimately holds it and everything else he won in 2016. So Biden wins but only by 20-40 electoral votes so we get to listen to conspiracy theories and court challenges for two and a half months.
And yeah, not enough of a win for Biden, so we get to deal with talk of voter fraud until the next election. We all lose."...you pointy-headed autopsy nerd. Do you think it's possible for you to post without using words like "hilarious," "absurd," "canard," and "truther"? Your bare assertions do not make it so. Maybe your reasoning is too stunted and your vocabulary is too limited to go without these epithets."
"You are an intemperate, unscientific poster who makes light of very serious matters.”
- SeattleUteComment
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The 538 website shows averages for the national polls as well as state polls, and they show Biden with bigger leads than does RCP. 538 apparently weights the individual polls based on previous accuracy; does RCP? If so, I assume they've made different assumptions, but I'm curious what those are.Originally posted by BlueK View PostComment
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RCP just takes a simple average of the most recent polls. I'm not sure what criteria they use to determine when a poll is old enough to no longer be figured in the average. I would think 538 is probably better if they factor in quality.Originally posted by PaloAltoCougar View PostComment
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Why are we talking about national polls? Yes, Biden is going to own trump in the national vote, but our next president will be decided by Florida and Pennsylvania.Comment
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Not exactly. There are several others Trump won last time where Biden holds a small lead. Trump basically needs every one of them. But you're right if Biden takes PA or FL it's over. The reverse is not true though.Originally posted by Applejack View Post
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...llege_map.html
Go to the map and put FL and PA in Trump's column. He still needs 96 electoral votes after that! Put one of those in Biden's column and getting to 270 is almost inevitable with all the tossups still on the board.
Also, RCP tends to be overly cautious. NV and MN are not tossups. Biden's lead in both is outside margin of error.Last edited by BlueK; 10-27-2020, 05:28 PM.Comment
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If the results in WI, PA and MI are clear then there is nothing to argue in the courts. But I think a few other Trump states from 2016 will also go to Biden. I think AZ and also pick 2 among FL, NC, OH, IA, GA.Originally posted by Omaha 680 View PostAssuming no major movement in the last week my prediction is trump doesn't pick up any states he lost to Clinton and loses Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Arizona is right on the edge but I think he ultimately holds it and everything else he won in 2016. So Biden wins but only by 20-40 electoral votes so we get to listen to conspiracy theories and court challenges for two and a half months.Last edited by BlueK; 10-27-2020, 05:37 PM.Comment
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What are the chances polls in this cycle are underestimating turnout from a few demos that have not traditionally been high turnout groups?
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/27/polit...tes/index.htmlComment
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I normally don't agree with you about anything because you are usually wrong but you are right about this one. I guess these other Dems live in a fantasy world where the popular vote is meaningful.Originally posted by Applejack View Post"If there is one thing I am, it's always right." -Ted Nugent.
"I honestly believe saying someone is a smart lawyer is damning with faint praise. The smartest people become engineers and scientists." -SU.
"Yet I still see wisdom in that which Uncle Ted posts." -creek.
GIVE 'EM HELL, BRIGHAM!Comment
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Originally posted by Applejack View PostI'm getting nervous about Pennsylvania.
"If there is one thing I am, it's always right." -Ted Nugent.
"I honestly believe saying someone is a smart lawyer is damning with faint praise. The smartest people become engineers and scientists." -SU.
"Yet I still see wisdom in that which Uncle Ted posts." -creek.
GIVE 'EM HELL, BRIGHAM!Comment
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So did y'all catch last night's Tucker Carlson? Great interview with a first-hand witness; none of this anonymous hearsay BS like the Dems like to run with. Here are some highlights...
Joe is total pwned by the Chinese:
"If there is one thing I am, it's always right." -Ted Nugent.
"I honestly believe saying someone is a smart lawyer is damning with faint praise. The smartest people become engineers and scientists." -SU.
"Yet I still see wisdom in that which Uncle Ted posts." -creek.
GIVE 'EM HELL, BRIGHAM!Comment
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Nice of them to come forward now after most people have already voted.
Late enough to get the story out but not really much time to do a full investigation to see what is serious and what is BS.Comment
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"Plausible deniability". Yeah, I totally picture Joe Biden saying that.
Assuming the very worst is true, Joe Biden in 2017, then a private citizen, used his influence to help his son's firm financially. And it was so scandalous that they waited a a couple of weeks before the election to drop it.
Man, they don't make scandals like they used to."...you pointy-headed autopsy nerd. Do you think it's possible for you to post without using words like "hilarious," "absurd," "canard," and "truther"? Your bare assertions do not make it so. Maybe your reasoning is too stunted and your vocabulary is too limited to go without these epithets."
"You are an intemperate, unscientific poster who makes light of very serious matters.”
- SeattleUteComment
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I believe Bobulinski as much as I believe that Ford lady."Discipleship is not a spectator sport. We cannot expect to experience the blessing of faith by standing inactive on the sidelines any more than we can experience the benefits of health by sitting on a sofa watching sporting events on television and giving advice to the athletes. And yet for some, “spectator discipleship” is a preferred if not primary way of worshipping." -Pres. UchtdorfComment
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