2020 General Presidential Election Thread

[New Mexican Disaster]

We could just ban fossil fuels and sentence billions of people to death within 30 days. I'm sure many environmentalists would be on board with that. The movement has a long history of supporting genocide, eugenics, and ethnic cleansing.

E.g., http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-d...racist-history

You need to watch some tv.

[BlueK]

I found this interesting this morning:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/pr...ore-the-debate

It shows that if there is a polling error this year that is the same as it was in 2016, Biden would still win. The polls will have to be more wrong than in 2016 for Trump to win. Not sure what polls they are using to calculate the error from 2016 though.

Now we're 11 days out

13 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 8.5, Clinton up 5.6; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 4 points, Clinton by 4.1
12 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 7.9, Clinton up 4.6; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 4.1 points, Clinton by 3.8
11 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 7.9, Clinton up 3.9; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 4.1 points, Clinton by 3.8

By this point last time Clinton's lead was slipping. Maybe the polls weren't really as wrong last time as everyone remembers. The 11th day was Comey's surprise announcement. So since polls always take a few days to react, we'll see what happened in the coming days. There is a reason Trump and his friends are trying so hard to manufacture a Biden scandal right now. They know the Comey thing made a big difference for them even if his supporters strongly prefer the "polls are fake" and were always wrong narrative.

Also, it's still early and some new polls may still be released today, so the 2020 numbers may still adjust later today. I'll edit if needed.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...-2020-vs-2016/

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...-2020-vs-2016/

[SeattleUte]

Now we're 11 days out

13 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 8.5, Clinton up 5.6; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 4 points, Clinton by 4.1
12 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 7.9, Clinton up 4.6; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 4.1 points, Clinton by 3.8
11 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 7.9, Clinton up 3.9; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 4.1 points, Clinton by 3.8

By this point last time Clinton's lead was slipping. Maybe the polls weren't really as wrong last time as everyone remembers. The 11th day was Comey's surprise announcement. So since polls always take a few days to react, we'll see what happened in the coming days. There is a reason Trump and his friends are trying so hard to manufacture a Biden scandal right now. They know the Comey thing made a big difference for them even if his supporters strongly prefer the "polls are fake" and were always wrong narrative.

Also, it's still early and some new polls may still be released today, so the 2020 numbers may still adjust later today. I'll edit if needed.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...-2020-vs-2016/

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...-2020-vs-2016/

Thank you. This is excellent.

[Moliere]

Where's CMBF and his "correcting adjustments" to the polling numbers. He was all over this back in 2016 and nnow we have to put up with BlueK's actually reasonable data

[beefytee]

I know there have been a lot of comparisons to the 2016 forecasts. 538 gave Trump about the bests odds of winning in 2016 at 28% (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/)

A few days ago people pointed out that 538 was giving Trump the same odds this time around that they were in 2016 on the same days (about 12%).

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

If you compare that with the 2020 forecast 11 days before the election (That would be Oct. 27, 2016), Trump had started to turn this around an was up about 5 points in the forecast (12% -> 17%). Something that isn't happening this time. He is still at 12%.

The other interesting thing to look at is popular vote forecasts. Because they include Johnson in the popular vote graph, it is difficult to differentiate, but in 2016 neither falls out of the margin of error of each other. This time around Biden's margin of error floor is about 51% and Trump's ceiling is about 48%.

So it looks like things need to shift more dramatically than they did 4 years ago for Trump to have a similar shot to last time.

[old_gregg]

You need to watch some tv.

[old_gregg]

I know there have been a lot of comparisons to the 2016 forecasts. 538 gave Trump about the bests odds of winning in 2016 at 28% (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/)

A few days ago people pointed out that 538 was giving Trump the same odds this time around that they were in 2016 on the same days (about 12%).

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

If you compare that with the 2020 forecast 11 days before the election (That would be Oct. 27, 2016), Trump had started to turn this around an was up about 5 points in the forecast (12% -> 17%). Something that isn't happening this time. He is still at 12%.

The other interesting thing to look at is popular vote forecasts. Because they include Johnson in the popular vote graph, it is difficult to differentiate, but in 2016 neither falls out of the margin of error of each other. This time around Biden's margin of error floor is about 51% and Trump's ceiling is about 48%.

So it looks like things need to shift more dramatically than they did 4 years ago for Trump to have a similar shot to last time.

it all comes down to pennsylvania

[Jeff Lebowski]

it all comes down to pennsylvania

I wonder how much Biden's comment on the oil industry will impact that race.

[Katy Lied]

You realize you’re talking to OG here. That is like asking Clack to be less weird or Ted to post less links.

Cant stop smiling at this contribution.

[fusnik]

I wonder how much Biden's comment on the oil industry will impact that race.

I wouldn’t think it would change anything. Is it anything different than what Dems have been saying for years?

I don’t know anybody who doesn’t think they shouldn't reduce their carbon footprint.

[SeattleUte]

https://apple.news/A0A7Gk6NIQmuJdGse6kLi0w

[SeattleUte]

It was a thought experiment for all the morons who equate fossil fuels with cigarettes.

[UVACoug]

I wonder how much Biden's comment on the oil industry will impact that race.

My guess it is has little impact, at least in PA. Oil/fracking is important for a lot of people there, but I’d guess that the large majority of people in PA don’t care about it at all. I think the importance of the fracking debate has been overblown.

[BlueK]

Where's CMBF and his "correcting adjustments" to the polling numbers. He was all over this back in 2016 and nnow we have to put up with BlueK's actually reasonable data

put up with? geez. By the way, I'm getting this from realclearpolitics which if anything has a rightward/conservative/republican slant.

[SeattleUte]

I wouldn’t think it would change anything. Is it anything different than what Dems have been saying for years?

I don’t know anybody who doesn’t think they shouldn't reduce their carbon footprint.

The polls seem to suggest that a decisive number of voters are as sensitive and whimsical as the equities markets. I don't know any.