At what point did you / will you take the coronavirus epidemic seriously?

[Omaha 680]

That sounds reasonable and I hope it goes that way. i noticed that U.S. deaths today were about half of the previous day. Could be an anomaly.

Looks like you were right and the low number on Sunday was the anomaly. Deaths back up near 600 again Monday. The overall US infection curve appears to be flattening, but that may not have a lot of meaning being that we are dealing with regional outbreaks that will each have their own peak.

Just asked Mrs. NWC. It still bothers her.

Tell her to stop being so unamerican.

[myboynoah]

It's hard for me to imagine a more hideous bunch of people.

Tent hospital in Manhattan’s Central Park asks volunteers to support ‘statement of faith’ rejecting same-sex marriage

Yet unlike the other projects, Samaritan’s Purse has asked all volunteers working at the field hospital — including health workers — to pledge to 11 declarations, Gothamist reports, including one that defines marriage as “exclusively the union of one genetic male and one genetic female” and another that says “human life is sacred from conception to its natural end.”

The Christian group was founded by Franklin Graham, a minister with a famous preacher as a father and a history of making incendiary comments, and has specifically sought out Christian medical staff for the tent hospital.

[Moliere]

Crude oil prices in west Texas hit $10.85 yesterday. Storage is full and refiners are asking producers to curtail production. I guess we are about to find out which oil companies are going to survive.

[myboynoah]

Here's a good article explaining the numbers. Deaths are overstated: those who die with Covid-19 vs those those whose deaths are caused by Covid-19. Total infections are grossly understated because only those with severe symptoms get tested. https://spectator.us/understand-repo...-covid-deaths/

Interesting. He obviously has a bias toward overstating infection rates for COVID-19 at every chance, which I don't understand.

1. If we assume that inadequate testing is failing to capture all those that are infected, then surely we can also assume it is failing to capture all the deaths that can be attributed to COVID-19. Yet he makes no mention of this possibility.
2. Cutting such a fine line between "death with the virus" and "death due to the virus" is silly. And his examples are even sillier. I guess now we need to go back and redefine the causes of death for any number of pathologies, including the flu (so oftern compared to COVID-19, as in "blah blah blah number of people die of the flu every year and we don't close down the local pub for that!").
3. Related to 2, assuming two thirds of the people that die from COVID-19 will die anyway, then again, I guess we now need to go back and readujust our mortality rates for any number of pahologies, including the flu.
4. Why is the guy expounding on this issue when Italy and Spain are on fire and outbreaks are expanding in the U.S.? Why not share his expertise in dealng with past epidemics to help jurisdictions limit the spread?
5. Why are we listening to a retired pathology professor and a former NHS pathologist "consultant"?

Again, I don't understand this seeming need to drive down current assumptions about COVID-19 mortality rates. All we need to do is open our eyes to see that the effect is much worse than the flu.

[myboynoah]

Embedded Tweet

[Uncle Ted]

Crude oil prices in west Texas hit $10.85 yesterday. Storage is full and refiners are asking producers to curtail production. I guess we are about to find out which oil companies are going to survive.

Holy cow. When is the last time it has been that low? The great oil company purge has started.

[Clark Addison]

It's hard for me to imagine a more hideous bunch of people.

Tent hospital in Manhattan’s Central Park asks volunteers to support ‘statement of faith’ rejecting same-sex marriage

Samaritan's Purse is headquartered around here, and has a huge facility in the area, with a ton of volunteer opportunities (the youth in our ward do something there every Christmas). They do some good things, but I told the woman on my team at work who coordinates volunteer events to not put together anything with them because of crap like this and some other stuff.

I haven't heard if Franklin is re-thinking his policies and rhetoric given the blow of losing all those Team Addison volunteer hours.

[old_gregg]

Crude oil prices in west Texas hit $10.85 yesterday. Storage is full and refiners are asking producers to curtail production. I guess we are about to find out which oil companies are going to survive.

is this oil <$0 hype because of storage issues for real?

[Moliere]

is this oil <$0 hype because of storage issues for real?

No idea and I haven't heard it going under $0. I'd be surprised if it did. Producers are already exploring options of shutting in production and WTI (Cushing Oklahoma) is bouncing around $20/bl. Nat gas has gone <$0 several times (just residue gas not when you include the related NGLs) but it's more of a byproduct in the Permian so it's considered more of a cost of operating an oil well when it's negative. When oil prices get low then measures are taken. Pioneer and Parsley are already petitioning the state regulators to curtail production.

But yes, the steep drop in prices at different locations is due to storage issues. Pipelines are beginning to curtail flow, storage tanks are almost full in Midland and the gulf coast, near term demand has evaporated almost overnight. Canada is going to get hit hard if this continues as are all the weaker OPEC countries like Iraq, Venezuela, Algeria, Nigeria, etc.

[Northwestcoug]

Tell her to stop being so unamerican.

Bro you trying to get me in the doghouse?

[SeattleUte]

Interesting. He obviously has a bias toward overstating infection rates for COVID-19 at every chance, which I don't understand.

1. If we assume that inadequate testing is failing to capture all those that are infected, then surely we can also assume it is failing to capture all the deaths that can be attributed to COVID-19. Yet he makes no mention of this possibility.
2. Cutting such a fine line between "death with the virus" and "death due to the virus" is silly. And his examples are even sillier. I guess now we need to go back and redefine the causes of death for any number of pathologies, including the flu (so oftern compared to COVID-19, as in "blah blah blah number of people die of the flu every year and we don't close down the local pub for that!").
3. Related to 2, assuming two thirds of the people that die from COVID-19 will die anyway, then again, I guess we now need to go back and readujust our mortality rates for any number of pahologies, including the flu.
4. Why is the guy expounding on this issue when Italy and Spain are on fire and outbreaks are expanding in the U.S.? Why not share his expertise in dealng with past epidemics to help jurisdictions limit the spread?
5. Why are we listening to a retired pathology professor and a former NHS pathologist "consultant"?

Again, I don't understand this seeming need to drive down current assumptions about COVID-19 mortality rates. All we need to do is open our eyes to see that the effect is much worse than the flu.

The reason people care about getting a fully developed understanding of the data is that we are doing massive damage to our economy and even traditional system of governance with this shutdown. Real people's lives are being utterly destroyed in ways the government will never be able to fix because of this shutdown. We have never done this before and can't fathom the consequences. So there has to be a rational discussion of tradeoffs. That has to involve understanding what we are sacrificing by taking any course.

[CJF]

Sobering data shared there.

[SeattleUte]

Sobering data shared there.

Everything should be considered. We have a very poor understanding of what is going on, which is a travesty given the stakes for everyone.

[Uncle Ted]

Reminds me of another anecdote shared recently on Facebook among the RS sisters in the ward. My wife showed it to me... to sum up, a lady in the ward has a sister whose late-40-something-age husband was diagnosed and intubated and will likely die. "It could happen to anyone, even your husband!" So, naturally, it causes a bit of panic. Upon closer inspection this dude looks like he weighs north of 300 lbs, perhaps even pushing 4 bills; certainly not a picture of health. Probably best for the fatties to self-quarantine too.

Coronavirus death toll rises, obese corona patients dominate in intensive care
[...]
Meanwhile, Diederik Gommers, chairman of the Dutch intensive care association, told television talk show Jinek on Friday evening that 66% to 80% of corona patients on intensive care wards that he had seen are overweight. The reason has not yet been investigated, but Gommers said it could be linked to the prevalence of diabetes among obese people, which would make them more vulnerable to the virus. In addition, the extra weight can also make breathing more difficult, he said. A specialist on the programme gave a similar picture. ‘Almost all the patients on an IC ward are overweight,’ Peter van der Voort of Groningen University’s teaching hospital said. ‘We don’t know why, but it is very noticeable.’
[...]

https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/03/coronavirus-death-toll-rises-obese-corona-patients-dominate-in-intensive-care/

Well, I guess it is time to hit the treadmill.

[Moliere]

One other interesting observation is the praise and accolades that Cuomo is getting for his work as governor in NY. It's odd that people are heaping tons of praise on him when his state was woefully unprepared for anything like this and, as late as March 3, politicians in that state were still telling people to ignore the virus and go out and have fun. I guess it's natural for people to rally around a politician when they are trying to dig everyone out of hole, but it seems like he's mostly to blame for the hole being so deep in the first place. It also helps to deflect all (even some warranted) blame onto the Feds/Trump, especially when the government at the federal level has been so inept.