At what point did you / will you take the coronavirus epidemic seriously?

[SeattleUte]

You keep quoting this like it's fact when it's obviously hyperbole.

It's not hyperbole. It's what Ferguson actually said, per that Wall Street Journal article about his revised estimate I posted.

[Bo Diddley]

It's not hyperbole. It's what Ferguson actually said, per that Wall Street Journal article about his revised estimate I posted.

That's what I'm saying--that Fergusen employed hyperbole.

[tooblue]

The Mathematics of Predicting the Course of the Coronavirus

https://www.wired.com/story/the-mathematics-of-predicting-the-course-of-the-coronavirus/

"Responding to Birx in a thread on Twitter, Harvard infectious disease epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch said Birx had been talking about work from his lab, which the federal government had asked for two days prior. In a preprint (so not peer-reviewed), his team had used an SEIR model with numbers tweaked to simulate the tightening or loosening of social distancing measures, as well as a potential flu-like seasonal variation in Covid-19 infections. He was varying R0, essentially. In the model, putting a stop to strict social distancing (without something like a vaccine or a cure coming along) allowed infections to climb right back up to their peak of about two critical cases per 1,000 people—which could be 660,000 Americans getting seriously ill or dying. And even with the strictest lockdown-type measures lasting from April through July, his team’s model finds that the disease surges back in autumn ...

The report, which also predicted 2.2 million American deaths if the government did nothing, got President Donald Trump’s attention. Shortly after, the White House rolled out a 15-day social distancing challenge, encouraging Americans to stay home as an act of patriotism. Then the US economy tanked, and Trump got nervous about staying the course. So when one of the Imperial researchers, Neil Ferguson, brought new estimates to the UK parliament last Thursday that predicted a British death toll below 20,000, Trump’s task force seized on the apparent walk-back. “Half a million to 20,000,” Birx said during the Thursday press briefing. “We are looking at that, in great detail, to understand that adjustment.”

Except Ferguson wasn’t really walking back his estimates or his model. As he explained later in his own series of tweets, the new numbers resulted from two things: The UK government’s implementation of social distancing measures, and a slightly higher R0 gleaned from new data from around Europe that suggests the outbreak is moving faster than at first believed—so more people are infected than anyone knows, with milder symptoms. Ferguson said this should lend more evidence, not less, to the importance of social distancing measures.

To be clear, Ferguson was doing exactly what any good scientist would do when presented with new data: updating the model."

[SeattleUte]

That's what I'm saying--that Fergusen employed hyperbole.

What? He's a scientist. The UK government's chief epidemiologist. But if anything, his original estimate was hyperbolic. He had no incentive for hyperbole when revising it down 96 percent.

[tooblue]

What? He's a scientist. The UK government's chief epidemiologist. But if anything, his original estimate was hyperbolic. He had no incentive for hyperbole when revising it down 96 percent.

"Except Ferguson wasn’t really walking back his estimates or his model. As he explained later in his own series of tweets, the new numbers resulted from two things: The UK government’s implementation of social distancing measures, and a slightly higher R0 gleaned from new data from around Europe that suggests the outbreak is moving faster than at first believed—so more people are infected than anyone knows, with milder symptoms. Ferguson said this should lend more evidence, not less, to the importance of social distancing measures."

[tooblue]

COVID-19: Germany to grant 'immunity certificates' to patients who overcome infection

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/covid-19-germany-to-grant-immunity-certificates-to-patients-who-overcome-infection?video_autoplay=true

"The researchers will test 100,000 people at a time and issue documentation to those who have been cleared of the virus to re-enter the workforce."

[Northwestcoug]

Possibility of plasma treatments is gaining traction.
Maybe an act of desperation, or maybe a breakthrough.

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/...vivors/609007/

So why not enlist a 5 thousand healthy people and purposely give them the virus and then use their antibodies?

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using Tapatalk

I finally read this closely. I was wrong about 1 plasma donation covering 1 sick person. According to the article, 1 donation could potentially cover 2-3 patients.

There are still many hurdles to make this a widely available treatment, some of which the article addresses.

[Eddie]

Our neighbour is a healthcare administrator. His son is our sixteen year old's best friend. They have grown up together. We spoke to him yesterday, each of us standing at a distance on our driveways. He was enjoying a day off, after spending many days at our local hospital. He said people in their 40's represent 30 - 40% of the people currently in hospital suffering with severe symptoms due to covid-19. It is his job to know these numbers. His thoughts were sobering.

Don't know if this video by the Atlantic was shared here:

Yeah, we've all heard these stories. The problem is they're not telling us the complete health condition of these patients. Poor health is rampant in the US and Europe. We have extended life expectancy not though increased exercise and improved nutrition, so much as powerful drugs and treatments. But Lipitor or diabetes drugs don't seem to help with Covid-19. The drugs themselves may create vulnerabilities. A friend of mine has chronic ulcerative colitis and is being very careful because his medication reduces immunity. Medical conditions are super complicated, and just dishing out anecdotes about younger people who got sick enough to go to the hospital isn't too helpful. Also, how many of them smoked? Smoking and drinking heavily is the common explanation for higher death rates among mean than women.

But while people 20-44 are being hospitalized, very few are dying.

In a perfect world, better than this clampdown would be for people to be responsible for their own fate, assess the risk, and mitigate, or assume it.

I think they're selling this COVID-19 social distancing things wrong all the way around. I saw a bunch of ads on TV over the weekend (I may have said this before) and they all talked about this virus being dangerous to people over 60 and people with health problems. But the way they described it - "This virus is a danger to people over 60 years old" - made it sound like if you aren't over 60 or don't have health issues, you won't even catch it.

Then I watched on some morning news show as a guy in his 40's who was recovering in a hospital talked about how awful it was and how he thought he would die.

The TV ads being put out the Feds are all focused on how the rest of us need to be careful so we don't spread it to people at risk of death. They need to include a few stories of people who were perfectly healthy and felt perfectly awful - like they were going to die - when they got sick. I think too many people are running around thinking either A) they aren't over 60, so they can't catch it. or B) they aren't over 60, so if they do get it they'll probably just be asymptomatic or it will be like a short cold and then they'll be fine. They need people to understand that being under 60 just means they're less likely to die. But they can still be hospitalized and feel like they wish they were dead because of how horrible they feel.

[chrisrenrut]

I finally read this closely. I was wrong about 1 plasma donation covering 1 sick person. According to the article, 1 donation could potentially cover 2-3 patients.

There are still many hurdles to make this a widely available treatment, some of which the article addresses.

Can’t donors donate once a week as well? That would significantly increase the volume of treatment opportunities.

[CJF]

That's what I'm saying--that Fergusen employed hyperbole.

When the article agrees with you it’s salient and insightful. When an article doesn’t, it’s hyperbole.

[Northwestcoug]

Possibility of plasma treatments is gaining traction.
Maybe an act of desperation, or maybe a breakthrough.

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/...vivors/609007/

So why not enlist a 5 thousand healthy people and purposely give them the virus and then use their antibodies?

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using Tapatalk

Can’t donors donate once a week as well? That would significantly increase the volume of treatment opportunities.

Technically yes. But then you potentially run into an adequate antibody concentration issue. Once a patient convalesces, the antibody concentration decreases. I would assume that you'd like to get plasma from patients shortly after a patient is better to get as much antibody as possible.

[Walter Sobchak]

Then I watched on some morning news show as a guy in his 40's who was recovering in a hospital talked about how awful it was and how he thought he would die.

Reminds me of another anecdote shared recently on Facebook among the RS sisters in the ward. My wife showed it to me... to sum up, a lady in the ward has a sister whose late-40-something-age husband was diagnosed and intubated and will likely die. "It could happen to anyone, even your husband!" So, naturally, it causes a bit of panic. Upon closer inspection this dude looks like he weighs north of 300 lbs, perhaps even pushing 4 bills; certainly not a picture of health. Probably best for the fatties to self-quarantine too.

[tooblue]

Reminds me of another anecdote shared recently on Facebook among the RS sisters in the ward. My wife showed it to me... to sum up, a lady in the ward has a sister whose late-40-something-age husband was diagnosed and intubated and will likely die. "It could happen to anyone, even your husband!" So, naturally, it causes a bit of panic. Upon closer inspection this dude looks like he weighs north of 300 lbs, perhaps even pushing 4 bills; certainly not a picture of health. Probably best for the fatties to self-quarantine too.

I wasn't aware of how unreliable all of these stories are and that these people are considered obese ... like the story of this guy who is 45:

Congressman with COVID-19: "As sick as I’ve ever been" Rep. Ben McAdams, Utah: “This is not overblown, this is very serious.”

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/20/congressman-with-covid-19-as-sick-as-ive-ever-been/

Or this story of a 37 year old woman:

‘I had COVID-19 and here’s my story.’ Woman shares details of coronavirus experience

https://www.click2houston.com/health/2020/03/11/i-had-covid-19-and-heres-my-story-woman-shares-details-of-coronavirus-experience/

or ...

'It is truly a miracle': 38-year-old MI man shares story of surviving COVID-19

https://www.fox17online.com/news/local-news/michigan/it-is-truly-a-miracle-38-year-old-mi-man-shares-story-of-surviving-covid-19

[SeattleUte]

"Except Ferguson wasn’t really walking back his estimates or his model. As he explained later in his own series of tweets, the new numbers resulted from two things: The UK government’s implementation of social distancing measures, and a slightly higher R0 gleaned from new data from around Europe that suggests the outbreak is moving faster than at first believed—so more people are infected than anyone knows, with milder symptoms. Ferguson said this should lend more evidence, not less, to the importance of social distancing measures."

Who has said there should be no social distancing? For example, most emphatically there should be no church. But Cuomo himself has wondered whether schools should have been closed.

https://apple.news/AKfluvkIfTsyYvcJxqfWMvg

[SeattleUte]

When the article agrees with you it’s salient and insightful. When an article doesn’t, it’s hyperbole.

We aren't quibbling over what an article said, you dolt. These are the exact words used by the UK's top epidemiologist.