At what point did you / will you take the coronavirus epidemic seriously?

[SeattleUte]

yes, the population of iceland is a great data set for worldwide epidemiology

People from Iceland are somehow different compared to the rest of the world in the tendency to be asymptomatic when infected

[wuapinmon]

Wow. Interesting.

Wouldn't it be wonderful to learn that you are all immune and good to go?

Yes, but I've told my kids that we have to assume that we are not, or that we might still be communicable if we are, and that's why you are all my cellmates for the foreseeable future.

[myboynoah]

Very interesting. Can we put to rest the over-simplistic economy vs lives dichotomy?

I am sure SU will think of a way to discredit these folks.

Has anyone argued against something like that?

I like the idea of antibody testing to see who is already immune. We need to get that going right away.

Bingo.

[old_gregg]

People from Iceland are somehow different compared to the rest of the world in the tendency to be asymptomatic when infected

if there is a genetic or lifestyle component to being asymptomatic, yes

[Color Me Badd Fan]

Possibly relevant: I know someone who was experiencing severe symptoms, called instacare, was told not to come in until they have fever of 103, called in next day because breathing was very bad, they said come in, went in and was denied a corona test because they were only testing the very most severe symptoms. This person suspected they might have corona because it was the worst chest congestion and throat/headache they'd ever experienced. This anecdote would suggest the denominator on the death rate calculation is severely understated. But it's one anecdote.

There's a woman in our neighborhood, late 50s/early 60s who, according to what my wife heard, has a "weird strain of pneumonia" that includes temperature and a horrible cough. But supposedly she tested negative -- BS, she has the 'Rona. Then there's a family up the road with the same "weird strain."

I had a horrible bout with bronchitis last summer. I originally had some kind of really bad cold or possibly the flu but I kept on working and, worse, one evening expended myself doing yard work when it was close to 100 outside. I lost a ton of fluid doing it and things went downhill. When your AC runs nonstop during the evening, it dries out the air and makes something like bronchitis several orders of magnitude worse.

I got something else at the end of January which originally felt like a cold but it wasn't clogging my nose or sinuses. It went straight for my throat and I could feel it trying to get into my lungs and it seemed to come in 2-3 waves. I had a slight fever and some muscle aches. Because of what I dealt with last summer and knowing that the Coronavirus was lurking out there, I took this very seriously. I rested as much as I possibly could and also drank water nonstop over the course of 4-5 days.

[myboynoah]

Yes, but I've told my kids that we have to assume that we are not, or that we might still be communicable if we are, and that's why you are all my cellmates for the foreseeable future.

So you're on your own lock down, not due to some state imposed sanction?

You get today's good citizen award.

[wuapinmon]

So you're on your own lock down, not due to some state imposed sanction?

You get today's good citizen award.

Our state just decided to close non-essential businesses TODAY. We are on Day 15 of not leaving the house except to go somewhere in our car for a drive. We get Amazon packages, and the mail, but that's it. I have enough food in the house to go on for another 3 months if need be. Comfortably. But, we need milk, so we may do a foray later this week. Tomorrow is the first of the month. I might wait until Monday morning.

[myboynoah]

That Bloomberg article is dated March 22 (updated March 23) and refers to a Government of Iceland press release dated March 15 (updated March 21).

I found this on the Government of Iceland website dated March 25:

Strict measures to contain the spread of Covid-19 in Iceland

According to numbers published by the government on Wednesday 25 March, a total of 11 727 individuals have been tested for the virus that causes COVID-19. This translates to 32 217 on a per million basis. This is the highest proportion of tests performed by any individual country.

The tests have been performed on two different cohorts.

A total of 5 564 tests have been performed by the National University hospital of Iceland in Reykjavík, mostly on individuals who were symptomatic or were considered to be likely to have contracted the virus due to proximity to infected individuals or other reasons. Out of these 5 564 tests, 4 879 have been negative and 685 positive.

A total of 6 163 tests have been performed on the general population, individuals who had not been ordered to quarantine and were generally asymptomatic or showed mild symptoms. Out of these 6 163 tests, 6 111 have been negative and 52 positive.

As of today a total of 737 have been diagnosed with COVID-19 in Iceland. 68 people are cured. Two people who had been diagnosed with COVID-19 have died, one a tourist who showed unusual symptoms, the other an Icelander. 15 are currently hospitalized and 2 in intensive care. Of those currently identified as infected 23 are over the age of 70, the most at-risk age group.

So, of the 11,727 they have tested, there have been only 52 who were positive and asymptomatic at the time (did they eventually become symptomatic? who knows?). That's 0.4% of those tested. Does that suggest widespread asymptomatic infections?

Also, that only 23 of the infected are over 70 helps to explain Iceland's relatively low number of deaths (2). There are likely other factors, and sadly, we have seen that no matter where the virus has spread, the mortality rate among those infected has inevitably worked its way to 1% or more even under the most aggressive testing and contact tracing.

[myboynoah]

Our state just decided to close non-essential businesses TODAY. We are on Day 15 of not leaving the house except to go somewhere in our car for a drive. We get Amazon packages, and the mail, but that's it. I have enough food in the house to go on for another 3 months if need be. Comfortably. But, we need milk, so we may do a foray later this week. Tomorrow is the first of the month. I might wait until Monday morning.

And guns and ammo. Please tell me you have enough guns and ammo.

[PaloAltoCougar]

I guess testing isn't all that important. As recently as yesterday, Trump has said he "hadn't heard about testing in weeks...I haven't heard about testing being a problem." Such a dunce. But again, we're lucky he's only the class clown while smarter kids in the room are actually doing something.

[myboynoah]

I guess testing isn't all that important. As recently as yesterday, Trump has said he "hadn't heard about testing in weeks...I haven't heard about testing being a problem." Such a dunce. But again, we're lucky he's only the class clown while smarter kids in the room are actually doing something.

That was so curious. Anyone paying attention would know that testing is still A BIG PROBLEM!!!!! Was he lying? Or are those clowns that are close to him telling him happy tales of joy?

"We have now surpassed 1 million tests!!!!!! We are beating Korea!!!!!"

Hey idiots, Korea's deaths per million population is 3; the U.S. is at 12 and on the way up.

[SeattleUte]

That Bloomberg article is dated March 22 (updated March 23) and refers to a Government of Iceland press release dated March 15 (updated March 21).

I found this on the Government of Iceland website dated March 25:

Strict measures to contain the spread of Covid-19 in Iceland



So, of the 11,727 they have tested, there have been only 52 who were positive and asymptomatic at the time (did they eventually become symptomatic? who knows?). That's 0.4% of those tested. Does that suggest widespread asymptomatic infections?

Also, that only 23 of the infected are over 70 helps to explain Iceland's relatively low number of deaths (2). There are likely other factors, and sadly, we have seen that no matter where the virus has spread, the mortality rate among those infected has inevitably worked its way to 1% or more even under the most aggressive testing and contact tracing.

Is this your field? I didn't know you were an epidemiologist.

[myboynoah]

Is this your field? I didn't know you were an epidemiologist.

Ha. I'm just passing along information and drawing fairly obvious conclusions.

But if you want epidemiologists to weigh in, I refer you to Drs. Fauci and Birx.

Live updates: White House task force projects 100,000 to 240,000 deaths in U.S., even with mitigation efforts

The White House coronavirus task force on Tuesday presented a grim picture of where the U.S. could be heading over the next couple of months, even with interventions like physical distancing. The task force projects 100,000 to 240,000 deaths from the virus, with mitigation.

Deborah Birx and Anthony S. Fauci, the leaders of the task force, emphasized that although the projections were likely based on the data that they have seen from the hardest hit locations so far, they were hopeful that they could prevent such a high number of deaths.

“Whenever you’re having an effect, it’s not time to take your foot off the accelerator, and on the brake, but to just press it down on the accelerator,” Fauci said of the mitigation efforts. “And that’s what I hope. And I know that we can that do over the next 30 days.”

[SeattleUte]

Ha. I'm just passing along information and drawing fairly obvious conclusions.

But if you want epidemiologists to weigh in, I refer you to Drs. Fauci and Birx.

Live updates: White House task force projects 100,000 to 240,000 deaths in U.S., even with mitigation efforts

I read this. I’m glad they’re still hopeful that they can prevent such high volume of deaths.

We were talking about Iceland. Apparently you know more than what the epidemiologists have to say about Iceland.

[SeattleUte]

I see designer masks are becoming a new fashion thing. Does anyone know where I can get a camo?