At what point did you / will you take the coronavirus epidemic seriously?

[falafel]

Well, Nevada just got f*cked. Governor closes all non-essential businesses for 30 days. He is shutting down every single gaming device by midnight tonight. All gyms, bars, restaurants (except take-out/drive through) movie theaters. EVER-Y-THING.

Governor got pissy when people tried to clarify what businesses should close, etc. He actually said "KEVIN DURRANT, one of the fittest people in the world, just tested positive for corona. We need to take this SERIOUSLY people!"

[Jeff Lebowski]

Of course... but the number is falling, rapidly. Just a few days ago JL was conjuring 4% out of thin air... but after more rational actors on this thread confronted him, he's now wielding a 1% hammer (as is mbn). JL will keep changing his tune as the numbers roll in; which will confirm that SU has been right all along.

The 4% number was in the context of zero social distancing, with an overwhelmed medical system. We will likely never know what the rate would be in that scenario because literally nowhere on the planet has decided to go with that approach.

Given the extreme social isolation that America is currently undertaking, I think 1% probably is a pretty accurate guess. If it does end up at 1%, it will not mean that SU was right, given that he thinks social isolation is a huge mistake.

As for your last sentence, years ago I invented the term "SUwish!" to describe situations when SU claims he was right about something when in fact he was wrong. I guarantee you that no matter what happens this go round, SU will claim he was right. Bookmark this post.

[old_gregg]

what is the counterfactual we're considering here? if we can throw rocks at the thing we have data for (~1% fatality rate), someone ought to produce some quantifiable economic cost of quarantine-lite and similar measures. the idea that college students and min wage non essential hot dog on a stick personnel staying home for three weeks while everybody else in the universe just works from a different place will crash the global economy does not necessarily follow. investors will continue to invest, service providers will continue to provide service, and academics will continue to pretend to create value somehow. this is not changing the life of very many in the class of people that drive and sustain growth.

[wapiti]

This article says actually no, usually. And the guy in your article did survive.

https://time.com/5802423/coronvirus-...risk/?amp=true

My doctor said there is no evidence at this time that asthma is a risk factor for kids.

[SeattleUte]

Anybody else find it funny that the guy who constantly moralizes about the US killing "brown people" doesn't seem at all squeamish about killing off our elderly and sick?

This is not what it's about. You're in a bubble.

[LVAllen]

Well, Nevada just got f*cked. Governor closes all non-essential businesses for 30 days. He is shutting down every single gaming device by midnight tonight. All gyms, bars, restaurants (except take-out/drive through) movie theaters. EVER-Y-THING.

Governor got pissy when people tried to clarify what businesses should close, etc. He actually said "KEVIN DURRANT, one of the fittest people in the world, just tested positive for corona. We need to take this SERIOUSLY people!"

I'm a lawyer. I don't do shit until I read the actual, legally-binding order. Press conferences are not binding.

And even then, there's an excellent chance I don't do shit.

[Pelado]

what is the counterfactual we're considering here? if we can throw rocks at the thing we have data for (~1% fatality rate), someone ought to produce some quantifiable economic cost of quarantine-lite and similar measures. the idea that college students and min wage non essential hot dog on a stick personnel staying home for three weeks while everybody else in the universe just works from a different place will crash the global economy does not necessarily follow. investors will continue to invest, service providers will continue to provide service, and academics will continue to pretend to create value somehow. this is not changing the life of very many in the class of people that drive and sustain growth.

[SeattleUte]

what is the counterfactual we're considering here? if we can throw rocks at the thing we have data for (~1% fatality rate), someone ought to produce some quantifiable economic cost of quarantine-lite and similar measures. the idea that college students and min wage non essential hot dog on a stick personnel staying home for three weeks while everybody else in the universe just works from a different place will crash the global economy does not necessarily follow. investors will continue to invest, service providers will continue to provide service, and academics will continue to pretend to create value somehow. this is not changing the life of very many in the class of people that drive and sustain growth.

Is that what's happening in Vegas with all the casinos closed? You're such a tool bag.

[SeattleUte]

what is the counterfactual we're considering here? if we can throw rocks at the thing we have data for (~1% fatality rate), someone ought to produce some quantifiable economic cost of quarantine-lite and similar measures. the idea that college students and min wage non essential hot dog on a stick personnel staying home for three weeks while everybody else in the universe just works from a different place will crash the global economy does not necessarily follow. investors will continue to invest, service providers will continue to provide service, and academics will continue to pretend to create value somehow. this is not changing the life of very many in the class of people that drive and sustain growth.

This is like saying you don't believe anyone has died. I guess you don't believe in data. Never mind the market's reaction.

[old_gregg]

Is that what's happening in Vegas with all the casinos closed? You're such a tool bag.

ah yes, who could forget the great lynchpin of modern american prosperity: gaming

[falafel]

I'm a lawyer. I don't do shit until I read the actual, legally-binding order. Press conferences are not binding.

And even then, there's an excellent chance I don't do shit.

Don't worry, the executive order will be coming shortly.

[Jeff Lebowski]

ah yes, who could forget the great lynchpin of modern american prosperity: gaming

you heartless bastard!

[myboynoah]

This article says actually no, usually. And the guy in your article did survive.

https://time.com/5802423/coronvirus-...risk/?amp=true

My doctor said there is no evidence at this time that asthma is a risk factor for kids.

Excellent!

So the fact that he has asthma is irrelevant. You initially thought that mattered. Can't have it both ways.

Anyway, so he was a healthy 48-year-old man who almost died, encumbered the healthcare system for weeks and cost hundreds of thousands of dollars because he wasn't tested early.

Very scary.

He said he is “coming through this” and hopes to be able to leave the hospital by the weekend. He said he has turned on the television and caught up on the news of the escalating virus. He is worried some people don’t realize how serious it can be and hopes people are taking the recommended safety steps, from washing hands frequently to staying home when sick, to avoid community spread.

“It almost killed me,” he said. “It’s alarming when I hear people minimize it as a simple cold. It was no simple cold for me.”

[old_gregg]

This is like saying you don't believe anyone has died. I guess you don't believe in data. Never mind the market's reaction.

nobody is saying there won't be an economic cost; there will surely be one. but before we write off an actual, quantifiable number of human lives, the extent of that cost is worth is a discussion, and you've been far more reactionary and emotional about responses here than mbn/lebowski/et al. a full scale recession is just as unlikely as the walking dead apocalypse that excites the cougarboard nerds who dream about showing off their food storage and shoot at brown people.

by the way, the market's reaction is truly fucking worthless as a metric of the economic cost of virus response measures. what a dumb thing to say.

[old_gregg]

Excellent!

So the fact that he has asthma is irrelevant. You initially thought that mattered. Can't have it both ways.

Anyway, so he was a healthy 48-year-old man who almost died, encumbered the healthcare system for days and cost thousands of dollars because he wasn't tested early.

Very scary.

another data point: otherwise healthy 45 year old biglaw partner in critical condition.

https://abovethelaw.com/2020/03/45-year-old-biglaw-partner-in-critical-condition-with-coronavirus/