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Originally posted by BlueK
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Those countries are definitely ramping up their defense spending, finally. But even they know Russia won't touch them if they have at least a somewhat viable defense force. Russia can't even take Ukraine after what, three years? If Russia attacks Poland, Russia will be at war with all of Europe and that war will be over fairly quickly."Discipleship is not a spectator sport. We cannot expect to experience the blessing of faith by standing inactive on the sidelines any more than we can experience the benefits of health by sitting on a sofa watching sporting events on television and giving advice to the athletes. And yet for some, “spectator discipleship” is a preferred if not primary way of worshipping." -Pres. Uchtdorf -
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"There is no creature more arrogant than a self-righteous libertarian on the web, am I right? Those folks are just intolerable."
"It's no secret that the great American pastime is no longer baseball. Now it's sanctimony." -- Guy Periwinkle, The Nix.
"Juilliardk N I ibuprofen Hyu I U unhurt u" - creeksterComment
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If Russia invades Poland, Russia will then have to fight all of NATO. Even if the USA doesn't participate, Russia doesn't stand a chance against all the NATO countries. Trump may not like NATO, but all the other NATO countries love NATO. NATO country invasion is a redline.Originally posted by frank ryan View Post"Discipleship is not a spectator sport. We cannot expect to experience the blessing of faith by standing inactive on the sidelines any more than we can experience the benefits of health by sitting on a sofa watching sporting events on television and giving advice to the athletes. And yet for some, “spectator discipleship” is a preferred if not primary way of worshipping." -Pres. UchtdorfComment
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Between Trump and Erdogan, I doubt article 5 would be put in force.Originally posted by Moliere View Post
Without the US, NATO is not the same animal.Comment
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How does Moli know that they do know Russia won’t attack? I don’t think you can apply normal logic to Putin’s thinking.Originally posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post
How do you know what they don't know?Comment
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No one knows for sure, but Russia is currently bogged down in eastern Ukraine trying to take land from a country that is something like 25% of the economic size of Poland. Putin is not normal but I’m sure he understands that if he can’t even beat a small country like Ukraine he likely is toast against all of Europe. If Putin invades a NATO country do we really think that turkey and the US will just decide to not invoke article 5? That seems far fetched and I imagine all the other European countries would go to the aid of the invaded country 100 times more than what they are doing for Ukraine.Originally posted by chrisrenrut View Post"Discipleship is not a spectator sport. We cannot expect to experience the blessing of faith by standing inactive on the sidelines any more than we can experience the benefits of health by sitting on a sofa watching sporting events on television and giving advice to the athletes. And yet for some, “spectator discipleship” is a preferred if not primary way of worshipping." -Pres. UchtdorfComment
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Imho, there is a strong chance the US wouldn't invoke article 5. Trump wants out of NATO, and he has never done significant that would harm Russia. Trump is anti EA and anti Nato . That's not much of a secret.Originally posted by Moliere View PostComment
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Add to this that they are running out of manpower like Lebowski said a few pages back. Russia doesn't have the birthrate or the immigration (since they invaded) to support repopulating their military rapidly. They would also have to reinvigorate their economy just to attract historic immigration from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan, as they used to. I would think that takes them at least 10+ years, by which time I hope that defense investments by NATO members are now starting to fully kick in as a significant deterrent, the EU has pivoted away from reliance on Russian natural resources, and perhaps by then, Putin is out of office.Originally posted by Moliere View Post
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A very interesting poll reveals that only 27% of Russians want to continue the war. Considering that last year a Muscovite was sentenced to five years in prison for giving the "wrong" answer to a poll, one might assume support for the war is even lower than reported.Comment
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You love to see it. I still think Russia has the ability to weather this by flexing their authoritarian muscles just as they have in times past, but I would love to be proven wrong. Maybe they slow the pace of their offensive operations. Even so, they are facing rough waters. You love to see it.Originally posted by wally View PostComment
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I cannot fathom that there has been very much Russian support of the war the whole time, except for maybe just some 'loyalty to the motherland' stuff. This conflict is so much different than other conflicts right now. This is like the US invading Canada, or the UK invading Ireland. Just too much shared history, commerce, family, etc. to make it anything other than horribly messy politically (an understatement).Originally posted by PaloAltoCougar View PostComment
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There is talk Russia of Belarus entering the fray, although a bigger concern is Russia using Belarus to open a new front. Here's an article from a conservative think tank:
https://www.hudson.org/national-secu...os-luke-coffey
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In the other thread I minimized the prospects of Russia attacking one of the smaller less-significant European countries. But this article in the WSJ doesn’t think it’s that far-fetched:
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/rus...8d94?st=wGss53
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