Ukraine - somebody explain to me

[myboynoah]

Seeing a lot of tweets like this, which seems great, but how great, I have no idea. Apparently Musk pulled Starlink support from the Russians, which has allowed Ukraine to advance while the Russians are having trouble responding effectively due to limited communications. What is Musk's game here? He was the hero early on by providing Ukraine with starlink, then he soured on the Ukraine side, and then he provided the same capability to the Russians.

Embedded Tweet

[frank ryan]

Seeing a lot of tweets like this, which seems great, but how great, I have no idea. Apparently Musk pulled Starlink support from the Russians, which has allowed Ukraine to advance while the Russians are having trouble responding effectively due to limited communications. What is Musk's game here? He was the hero early on by providing Ukraine with starlink, then he soured on the Ukraine side, and then he provided the same capability to the Russians.

Embedded Tweet

I've never gotten the Musk fanboying. He isn't a particularly good or generous person. He's made bunch of money, a lot of by picking the right horses. The whole PayPal mafia bunch is worthy of ire and distrust.

At the start of the conflict he backed Ukraine but following a meeting with Putin he sold them out allowed the Russians to eff them over.

The fact that so much of our military industrial complex is attached to this one person who is wildly partisan is scary to me.

[dabrockster]

This is a very detailed article of what we knew and how it was dismissed. A very interesting article.

A war foretold: How the CIA and MI6 got hold of Putin’s Ukraine plans and why nobody believed them

Drawing on more than 100 interviews with senior intelligence officials and other insiders in multiple countries, this exclusive account details how the US and Britain uncovered Vladimir Putin’s plans to invade, and why most of Europe – including the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy – dismissed them. As the fourth anniversary of the invasion approaches and the world enters a new period of geopolitical uncertainty, Europe’s politicians and spy services continue to draw lessons from the failures of 2022

Putin starts planning

The CIA discovered an awful lot about Putin’s plans to invade Ukraine, but one thing they never worked out for sure is when he first made up his mind to go all-in. Sifting through the evidence later, like detectives at a crime scene, some of the agency’s analysts pinpointed the first half of 2020 as the most likely moment.

During those months, Putin passed constitutional amendments to ensure he could stay in power beyond 2024. Then, locked away in isolation for months during Covid, he devoured books on Russian history and pondered his own place in it. Over the summer, the violent crushing of a protest movement in neighbouring Belarus left President Alexander Lukashenko weaker and more reliant on the Kremlin than ever. It opened up the possibility of forcing Lukashenko to allow the use of Belarusian territory as an invasion launchpad.

Around the same time, a team of FSB poisoners slipped novichok nerve agent into the underpants of Alexei Navalny, the one opposition politician with the potential to command mass public support, sending him into a coma. Back then, these all seemed like discrete events. Later, they started to look like Putin getting his ducks in a row before implementing the big Ukraine gambit he felt would cement his role in history as a great Russian leader.

Hints of that plan first came into focus in the spring of 2021, when Russian troops began building up along Ukraine’s borders and in occupied Crimea, supposedly for training exercises. The US received intelligence suggesting Putin could use an annual set-piece speech, due on 21 April, to lay out the case for military action in Ukraine. When Biden was briefed on the intelligence, a week before the speech, he was so alarmed he called Putin directly. “He raised concerns about the buildup and called for a de-escalation, as well as proposing a summit in the coming months, which we knew would be of interest to Putin,” said Avril Haines, Biden’s director of national intelligence.

Four weeks after the Geneva summit, Putin published a lengthy, rambling essay about the history of Ukraine, in which he went back as far as the ninth century to make the argument that “true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia”.

The screed raised eyebrows, but attention in London and Washington was soon diverted by the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan. In September, Russian troops began another buildup along Ukraine’s borders; within a month it had reached a mass that was hard to ignore. Washington collected new intelligence about Russian plans, more detailed and much more shocking than in spring. Back then, the assumption had been that Russia could attempt a formal annexation of the Donbas region, or in a maximalist scenario, might try to hack a land corridor through southern Ukraine, linking Donbas to occupied Crimea. Now, it looked as if Putin could be planning something bigger. He wanted Kyiv.

The view from Kyiv

At the end of October, the CIA and MI6 sent memos to Kyiv outlining their alarming new intelligence assessments. The next week, after Burns visited Moscow, two US officials on the trip peeled away from the delegation and flew to Kyiv where they briefed two senior Ukrainian officials on the US fears and the CIA director’s conversations in Moscow. “We basically said: ‘We will follow up. You’ll see the intel. This is not a normal warning, this is really serious. Trust us,’” said Eric Green, one of the US officials. The Ukrainians looked sceptical.

In mid-November, the British defence secretary, Ben Wallace, visited Kyiv and told Zelenskyy London believed a Russian invasion was now a matter of “when”, not “if”. He urged Zelenskyy to start preparing the country for war. “You can’t fatten up a pig on market day,” Wallace told the Ukrainian president, according to a source briefed on the meeting. Zelenskyy appeared to be in passive listening mode.

Zelenskyy had been elected in 2019 on a platform of pursuing peace negotiations to end the conflict Russia had launched in eastern Ukraine in 2014. He no longer believed he could do a deal with Putin, but he feared that public talk of an even bigger war would prompt panic in Ukraine. This could lead to an economic and political crisis, collapsing the country without Russia needing to send a single soldier across the border. This, he suspected, was Putin’s plan all along. He grew increasingly irritated at the Americans and British, who alongside the private warnings were starting to talk about the invasion threat in public. In November, he dispatched one of his most senior security officials on a top-secret mission to a European capital to deliver a message to political leaders via intelligence channels: the war scare is fake, and is all about the US trying to leverage pressure on Russia.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng...e-plans-russia

[LVAllen]

This is a very detailed article of what we knew and how it was dismissed. A very interesting article.

A war foretold: How the CIA and MI6 got hold of Putin’s Ukraine plans and why nobody believed them

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng...e-plans-russia

Very interesting. Also interesting that the article ends not being quite sure whether Ukraine's public nonpreparations may have ended up helping. It was a difficult situation. Annouce it publicly, risk panic and collapse, or don't announce it, and risk suffering and death, but possibly national survival.

[dabrockster]

Very interesting. Also interesting that the article ends not being quite sure whether Ukraine's public nonpreparations may have ended up helping. It was a difficult situation. Annouce it publicly, risk panic and collapse, or don't announce it, and risk suffering and death, but possibly national survival.

I noted that in the article as well. Talk about your worst case scenarios. Any attempt to prepare admits to this notion of invasion. I can’t imagine making that choice.

[dabrockster]

A disgusting casualty of the war.. I pray they get what is coming to them.. May the rot in hell..


Ukrainian Women Tell Their Stories of Sexual Violence by Russian Soldiers

Hundreds of Ukrainian women and girls have reported sexual violence by Russian troops during the nearly four years of full-scale war in Ukraine, according to Ukrainian authorities and aid groups. The actual number of victims, advocates say, is most likely far higher.

Some of the women say they have been impregnated by Russian soldiers and live with children who will forever remind them of their attackers. Others have told of being forced to serve as sex slaves for entire companies of Russian troops. Still others say their life became a waking nightmare after they were incapacitated and raped by Russian forces.

The New York Times spoke with more than a dozen women who said they had been sexually abused by Russian troops. Most of the women asked that their full identities be withheld to protect their privacy. Although details of their claims could not be independently verified, The Times reviewed criminal complaints and medical records related to many of their cases, and spoke with advocates familiar with the women’s accounts.

Nina says she tested positive for hepatitis C after being beaten and raped by a Russian soldier in her home.

Yuliia says Russian prison guards tied her naked to a table and threatened to violate her with a rubber stick after she was arrested in 2021 in a part of Ukraine occupied by Russia.

One of many stories:

On March 7, 2022, two weeks into Russia’s invasion, Lesya, a 53-year-old economist, and her husband, Sasha, heard a knock on their door, in a village near Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital. Two Russian soldiers burst in, she said.

One of them caught her and dragged her into a neighbor’s house, she recalled. “He raped me straight away,” Lesya said. “The second one shot my husband in the stomach and leg while I was being raped.”

Four other Russian soldiers approached the house where she was being violated, she said. “I thought that was it for me — they had knives, rifles and grenades,” Lesya recalled. But the soldiers stopped her attacker and pulled him away, she said.

She then searched for her husband, she said. She found him bleeding on the floor of another house. Neighbors were attempting first aid.

Lesya begged the Russian troops to allow her to drive her husband to the hospital, she said, but they would not let her get in her car.

Sasha died in Lesya’s arms two days after he was shot, she said. One of his last utterances was “Thank God my father didn’t live to see this,” Lesya recalled, devastated at the memory.

The Love of a Mother:

Svitlana, 31, was already worried about her 4-week-old son, who had been born in fragile health and had lost access to medical care after the Russian Army invaded her village in southern Ukraine. Then, Russian soldiers stormed her home and threatened to kidnap the boy and take him to Russia, she said.

She intervened and they relented, she said. But even after that frightening encounter in March 2022, her partner, the baby’s father, began to befriend the troops. The father, a Russian sympathizer, invited them frequently into their home and drank with them, she said.

One day, as the men gathered, her partner forced her into a white van with two soldiers, she said. The soldiers put a mask over her face, she said, and drove her to a nearby village. Svitlana’s partner stayed in the van while one of the soldiers forced her into a shop and raped her twice, she said.

The soldiers “had a grenade, a knife and a rifle,” she recalled.

Afterward, Svitlana’s partner accompanied her back to their house without saying a word, she said.

Six months later, Svitlana fled to another village with her baby and four other children from previous relationships. She and her partner had split up. But Svitlana soon noticed that her stomach was growing. A pregnancy test came back positive.

“I wanted to get an abortion,” she recalled. “I went to the hospital, but they said it was too late. I was 23 weeks pregnant.”

Svitlana’s baby boy, Yaroslav, was born on March 8, 2023.

The regional prosecutor’s office said that it was investigating the case and that it had received a report from a gynecologist who treated Svitlana.

The child looks like the rapist, she said. She is seeing psychologists to help her come to terms with her situation.

Today, “Yaroslav is developing faster than my other children. He already speaks fluently,” Svitlana said. “Sometimes, I regret that I wanted the abortion. I love him almost like the others.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/20/w...smid=url-share

[dabrockster]

Russia is losing an entire generation from the war on Ukraine.

Russia is losing more troops than it can recruit for the first time since it invaded Ukraine.

Vladimir Putin’s forces were suffering almost 40,000 casualties a month since November, while recruiting up to 35,000 troops to sustain the invasion, Western officials said.

Ukraine’s intense counter-attacks have pushed Russia’s casualties to more than 1.25 million – more than the total sustained by the United States during the Second World War.

The Telegraph revealed on Monday how Russia had bought properties near military sites across Europe as part of plans for a co-ordinated sabotage campaign, intelligence officials warned.

Suspicious property acquisitions near the MI6 headquarters in south London and the nearby US embassy, and RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus, have raised fears of Russia stepping up its “hybrid war” through the new network.

Elon has made a significant contribution by disconnecting Russia from StarLink. Interesting when lefties will call him a Nazi and various other inaccurate accusations.

Russia’s losses have been exacerbated this month after Elon Musk banned the use of his Starlink satellite-based internet service.

Many of their drones can no longer fly and troops must communicate via radio, which is easier to intercept.

“The Russians’ intensity dropped when they were disconnected from Starlink,” a Ukrainian soldier told The Telegraph. “In two days, we regained Sosnivka [in Dnipropetrovsk] and are on the way to Huliapole [in Zaporizhzhia].”

AI and Drones have helped significantly in this war and Russia was not prepared.

Gen Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK, warned artificial intelligence and drones had revolutionised the battlefield, leaving troops on both sides exposed.

“This has led to the creation of a robotic kill zone, which today extends at least 25 kilometres deep,” he said.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...n-can-recruit/

[Donuthole]

Elon has made a significant contribution by disconnecting Russia from StarLink. Interesting when lefties will call him a Nazi and various other inaccurate accusations.

Why did he wait so long to disconnect Russia from StarLink? Is it because he's a Nazi who was hoping public tide would swing in favor of Russia, but when it didn't, he realized allowing Russia to use StarLink was bad optics? So he's an opportunistic Nazi, anyway.

[frank ryan]

Why did he wait so long to disconnect Russia from StarLink? Is it because he's a Nazi who was hoping public tide would swing in favor of Russia, but when it didn't, he realized allowing Russia to use StarLink was bad optics? So he's an opportunistic Nazi, anyway.

He's definitely anti-immigrant and he has favored extreme right parties in Europe and engaged inflammatory rhetoric.
But I don't think he is a national socialist.

He originally was much more helpful to Ukraine and then began to gatekeep starlink use. It happened after he had a very public meeting with Putin.
His rhetoric around the conflict also changed. He was decidedly pro-Ukrainian at the start but then start spout that bs about NATO expansionism being at fault for the conflict.

[dabrockster]

Why did he wait so long to disconnect Russia from StarLink? Is it because he's a Nazi who was hoping public tide would swing in favor of Russia, but when it didn't, he realized allowing Russia to use StarLink was bad optics? So he's an opportunistic Nazi, anyway.

Soo. Out of all that and the loss of over 1.25 million citizens of Russia and the best quip you got is in regards to Elon not helping soon enough? Sounds rather selective in your opinion. Damned if you do. Damned if you don't.. Still a nazi in your book.

[chrisrenrut]

Russias use of Starlink went directly against US trade sanctions. Russia was having to smuggle in the Starlink equipment. Elon never should have allowed their access to begin with. DHole is right, Musk picked the wrong horse, and changed tactics once that was apparent.

[Jeff Lebowski]

This is remarkable.

Ukraine seems to be making massive advances in drone technology. They might actually win this thing.

Embedded Tweet

[PaloAltoCougar]

I love that, including his line, "This is about high technology protecting the highest value – human life." And there are still those in the administration who would favor Putin (who has racked up over 1.3 million casualties) over Zelenskyy.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Ukraine has built up an amazing high-tech defense industry and are starting to rake in cash selling it to other countries. Way to go, Putin.

[frank ryan]

Ukraine has built up an amazing high-tech defense industry and are starting to rake in cash selling it to other countries. Way to go, Putin.

Ukraine has been impressively resilient. Hungary's change is the first development in a long time that has given me hope. Hungary isn't going to fund Ukraine but are no longer going to the headache they have been being. Orban's acolytes are still imbedded in the intelligence services, military and secret police and security forces, so they have some work cut out for them. But it's been interesting to read about how they've been successful.

First the numbers were so overwhelming that rigging the election would've been incredibly difficult without military intervention. The guy who wasn't a leftist he was a moderate and disaffected member of Orban's party. He targeted rural voters, who were typically Orban's base. He narrowed the message to Orban being awful. He didn't focus on social issues. Quality of life has declined. It's funny how places led by "nationalists" are always shitty.

Hopefully democrats can learn from this but I'm not sold on that yet. You've got leftists complaining about mainstream democrats and the party not being radical enough. The issue is Trump and MAGA. Focus on him and his failures and the Epstein class. Stop vilifying people of faith and don't use support for Israel as awful as Netanyahu might be as a purity test.

MAGA has been ridiculously amazing at messaging and getting people to fall in line.