Ukraine - somebody explain to me

[Jeff Lebowski]

Russia is losing.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/...286398473?s=21

I follow the Kyiv Independent closely, and I pray they are right - but I wouldn't bet the farm on their analysis.

[SeattleUte]

I follow the Kyiv Independent closely, and I pray they are right - but I wouldn't bet the farm on their analysis.

I don't credit anyone who's not an expert, at all. Here Kyiv Independent is just quoting Ben Hodges, former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe. He's an expert.

[myboynoah]

I don't credit anyone who's not an expert, at all. Here Kyiv Independent is just quoting Ben Hodges, former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe. He's an expert.

Didn't we hear the 10-day time span thrown out there about a week in to the war?

Hodges would seem to be well-connected and in a position to get info that the rest of would not.

[myboynoah]

Ummmmmm

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[myboynoah]

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[SeattleUte]

Didn't we hear the 10-day time span thrown out there about a week in to the war?

Hodges would seem to be well-connected and in a position to get info that the rest of would not.

In the first week the experts feared Ukraine would fall with ten days.

[SeattleUte]

Ummmmmm

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Seriously, does France have any real military expertise?

[Jeff Lebowski]

Seriously, does France have any real military expertise?

Hey come on. They do know a thing or two about capitulation.

[SeattleUte]

This is a great book. Gessen is a staff writer for the New Yorker. Parents defected from the Soviet Union when they were a teen. Returned for years to report on Putin but recently fled. Jewish, LGTQ and an American reporter who criticized Putin, very brave to have lived there as long as they did.

The Book, The Future is History (terrific title), which won the National Book Award in 2017, is prophetic. Plumbs the national psychosis which made the turn back to totalitarianism inevitable. The Biblical dog wolfing its vomit. Homosovieticus, an entire nation of people whose minds are wired like the adult child who can only live in his aging parents' basement. Homosovieticus evolved over 100 years of Soviet propaganda combined with terror.

They want an autocratic leader, they want to be told what to believe, they want to believe the bureaucracy knows best, they want stasis, just a little corner in a self-deluded nation, they cling to the founding myth of the Great Patriotic War which expiates the Soviet Union's bloody past.

What makes Russia dangerous is its need to fancy itself a superpower. Can't seem to give up that self image like France and England did.

Russia is an object lesson of the saying that people get the government they deserve.

https://www.amazon.com/Future-Histor...453X/ref=nodl_

[myboynoah]

Hey come on. They do know a thing or two about capitulation.

Yes, certainly experts on a "sudden collapse" of the armed forces.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Optimistic take from a disciplined realist and specialist who knows what he's talking about. Putin must be furious at his military advisors and Russia will have to sue for peace in the coming weeks. Almost zero chance of nuclear war.

https://twitter.com/kofmanmichael/st...414191623?s=21

I just finished this. Very interesting, but I am not sure how you arrived at that summary. Seems pretty bleak for Ukraine.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Belarus has a rare moment of sanity.

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[Non Sequitur]

Belarus has a rare moment of sanity.

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https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/15/polit...ons/index.html

Lukashenko and his wife both personally hit with sanctions:

In Belarus, the country north of Ukraine that has played a key role aiding Russia's attack, sanctions were applied to the country's authoritarian leader as well as his wife, Halina. They would block their property and interests in the United States, and prohibit Americans from engaging in transactions with them.

You can only stick your neck out so far.

[SeattleUte]

I just finished this. Very interesting, but I am not sure how you arrived at that summary. Seems pretty bleak for Ukraine.

He believes that Russians can't occupy the country, the original plans have failed. That is the object of the war, which is lost. The plan now is just to degrade the Ukrainian military and cities. A few thousand will die. This sounds cold, but from a realpolitik standpoint, those things can be rebuilt and rebuilt within five years or less. Meanwhile, Putin can't maintain the cost of the war which is very steep in loss of hardware, Russians, and finances.

Kofman says explicitly that the chance of nuclear war is very low.

I said he's a realist. He'll never be Francis Fukuyama predicting the collapse of Russian forces and a coup and the end of history.

This take is as optimistic as it can get right now.

[SeattleUte]

If you want starry-eyed optimism, here you go.https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/st...141061634?s=21