Ukraine - somebody explain to me

[Jeff Lebowski]

He believes that Russians can't occupy the country, the original plans have failed. That is the object of the war, which is lost. The plan now is just to degrade the Ukrainian military and cities. A few thousand will die. This sounds cold, but from a realpolitik standpoint, those things can be rebuilt and rebuilt within five years or less. Meanwhile, Putin can't maintain the cost of the war which is very steep in loss of hardware, Russians, and finances.

Kofman says explicitly that the chance of nuclear war is very low.

I said he's a realist. He'll never be Francis Fukuyama predicting the collapse of Russian forces and a coup and the end of history.

This take is as optimistic as it can get right now.

Sure, the original plan has failed, but the most likely prospect now is bombardment, destruction of infrastructure, countless deaths, and a protracted war. Highly unlikely that the russians are going to pull out anytime soon.

[Katy Lied]

When they do, the world will help them rebuild. Further beggarizing Donbas, Crimea and Odessa. Look for riots and demands for unification some 20 years in the future.

[Jeff Lebowski]

I can't imagine Putin removing his army without some kind of concession that he can point to as a victory or justification. The demands seem to be:

1. Recognition that Crimea is part of Russia
2. Change ukranian constitution to ensure neutrality
3. Commitment to never join NATO
4. No foreign military in Ukraine
etc.

Maybe they agree with #1 as a sunk cost, but after this invasion I can't imagine the ukranians would be willing to accept 2-4.

So how does this end?

[SeattleUte]

I can't imagine Putin removing his army without some kind of concession that he can point to as a victory or justification. The demands seem to be:

1. Recognition that Crimea is part of Russia
2. Change ukranian constitution to ensure neutrality
3. Commitment to never join NATO
4. No foreign military in Ukraine
etc.

Maybe they agree with #1 as a sunk cost, but after this invasion I can't imagine the ukranians would be willing to accept 2-4.

So how does this end?

Kofman also says that at the very least Russia will soon need a cease fire to regroup.

[Commando]

I can't imagine Putin removing his army without some kind of concession that he can point to as a victory or justification. The demands seem to be:

1. Recognition that Crimea is part of Russia
2. Change ukranian constitution to ensure neutrality
3. Commitment to never join NATO
4. No foreign military in Ukraine
etc.

Maybe they agree with #1 as a sunk cost, but after this invasion I can't imagine the ukranians would be willing to accept 2-4.

So how does this end?

Interesting analysis from a friend of mine:

https://www.thebulwark.com/the-clock-is-running-out-on-putins-invasion/

[SeattleUte]

When they do, the world will help them rebuild. Further beggarizing Donbas, Crimea and Odessa. Look for riots and demands for unification some 20 years in the future.

Correct, the worst that Putin can do can be reversed fairly quickly. But Russia cannot maintain the status quo indefinitely. The rich world will pour resources into Ukraine. It will be a golden age.

Ukraine has much to fight for. Become North Korea or South Korea.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Would be nice if the west could funnel seized russian assets to Ukraine to pay for rebuilding.

[SeattleUte]

Would be nice if the west could funnel seized russian assets to Ukraine to pay for rebuilding.

Ha. this has been discussed, but truth is the West doesn't need Russia's seized assets. There is plenty of money and much incentive to make a better Ukraine.

Why isn't China going in whole hog for Russia? Doesn't want to be on the wrong side of history--not in a moral but a practical sense.

[SeattleUte]

This is terrific. At least watch the 19 minute video. It all goes back to Hitler, all his fault. Russia has never been a great power except at three discrete points and only ephemerally. But for the Great Patriotic War would Russia ever have been a modern great power? Russia may have been Brazil of Eastern Europe.

A Scholar of Stalin Discusses Putin, Russia, Ukraine, and the West | The New Yorker

[SeattleUte]

Interesting analysis from a friend of mine:

https://www.thebulwark.com/the-clock...tins-invasion/

Yes, Russia has a messianic fantasy that it stands shoulder to shoulder with the US or deserves to. As Kotkin notes in the New Yorker interview, it has been unwilling to come to term with its reduced status, and like France and England and Germany, be satisfied with being a country that gives a wealth of opportunities to its citizens, culturally enriches the world, and is an important ally of an economically elect group of countries.

A sign of intelligence is to try something else when what you tried has repeatedly failed. The Russian state is not very intelligent.

[Pelado]

This is terrific. At least watch the 19 minute video. It all goes back to Hitler, all his fault. Russia has never been a great power except at three discrete points and only ephemerally. But for the Great Patriotic War would Russia ever have been a modern great power? Russia may have been Brazil of Eastern Europe.

A Scholar of Stalin Discusses Putin, Russia, Ukraine, and the West | The New Yorker

Interesting read, thank you.

Russia is a remarkable civilization: in the arts, music, literature, dance, film. In every sphere, it’s a profound, remarkable place—a whole civilization, more than just a country. At the same time, Russia feels that it has a “special place” in the world, a special mission. It’s Eastern Orthodox, not Western. And it wants to stand out as a great power. Its problem has always been not this sense of self or identity but the fact that its capabilities have never matched its aspirations. It’s always in a struggle to live up to these aspirations, but it can’t, because the West has always been more powerful.

[Jeff Lebowski]

This is a great book. Gessen is a staff writer for the New Yorker. Parents defected from the Soviet Union when they were a teen. Returned for years to report on Putin but recently fled. Jewish, LGTQ and an American reporter who criticized Putin, very brave to have lived there as long as they did.

The Book, The Future is History (terrific title), which won the National Book Award in 2017, is prophetic. Plumbs the national psychosis which made the turn back to totalitarianism inevitable. The Biblical dog wolfing its vomit. Homosovieticus, an entire nation of people whose minds are wired like the adult child who can only live in his aging parents' basement. Homosovieticus evolved over 100 years of Soviet propaganda combined with terror.

They want an autocratic leader, they want to be told what to believe, they want to believe the bureaucracy knows best, they want stasis, just a little corner in a self-deluded nation, they cling to the founding myth of the Great Patriotic War which expiates the Soviet Union's bloody past.

What makes Russia dangerous is its need to fancy itself a superpower. Can't seem to give up that self image like France and England did.

Russia is an object lesson of the saying that people get the government they deserve.

https://www.amazon.com/Future-Histor...453X/ref=nodl_

I listened to that Ezra Klein podcast featuring Gessen that you linked. It was incredibly helpful in understanding what is going on in Russia, Putin's thinking, etc.

I might pick up this book. Klein was raving about it too.

[Omaha 680]

Sure, the original plan has failed, but the most likely prospect now is bombardment, destruction of infrastructure, countless deaths, and a protracted war. Highly unlikely that the russians are going to pull out anytime soon.

Yes. I'm starting to believe a lot of the talk of the Russian military suffering a catastrophic collapse is wishful thinking. It has certainly not gone as everyone (including Putin) expected and they will never be able to conquer and occupy Ukraine in the traditional sense. But their main goal was to pull Ukraine away from the west. Putin hoped to do so by installing a friendly government. Now that that seems impossible given their inability to occupy the country and Ukrainian resistance, Putin will settle for making this as horrific as possible until the West caves. The cracks already show a little. There was the MiG transfer fiasco. There was high-minded talk of EU and NATO membership for Ukraine but now that looks unlikely. How long will Germany bear the brunt of this economically with their skyrocketing energy prices?

I agree with SU that Russia is a second-rate country with a military that is a shell of the Soviet machine, but if it is between the will of the west to stick together and the will of Putin to inflict suffering until we crack, I give the west 50/50 odds at best. I sincerely hope I am wrong. If this ends with Russia keeping Crimea, the breakaway provinces being declared independent, and Ukraine writing into their constitution that they will never join NATO then Putin will have won. It will have been at a very high cost, but it will be a win.

[SeattleUte]

Yes. I'm starting to believe a lot of the talk of the Russian military suffering a catastrophic collapse is wishful thinking. It has certainly not gone as everyone (including Putin) expected and they will never be able to conquer and occupy Ukraine in the traditional sense. But their main goal was to pull Ukraine away from the west. Putin hoped to do so by installing a friendly government. Now that that seems impossible given their inability to occupy the country and Ukrainian resistance, Putin will settle for making this as horrific as possible until the West caves. The cracks already show a little. There was the MiG transfer fiasco. There was high-minded talk of EU and NATO membership for Ukraine but now that looks unlikely. How long will Germany bear the brunt of this economically with their skyrocketing energy prices?

I agree with SU that Russia is a second-rate country with a military that is a shell of the Soviet machine, but if it is between the will of the west to stick together and the will of Putin to inflict suffering until we crack, I give the west 50/50 odds at best. I sincerely hope I am wrong. If this ends with Russia keeping Crimea, the breakaway provinces being declared independent, and Ukraine writing into their constitution that they will never join NATO then Putin will have won. It will have been at a very high cost, but it will be a win.

The expert consensus seems to be that Putin's resort to shelling children's and maternity hospitals is a last resort. The West is already pouring money into Ukraine, and over half of it is for economic and humanitarian aid.

The West can't back down for similar reasons as Putin can't, but they run deeper. The memory of Neville Chamberlain and the Western myth of inevitability. It would be politically catastrophic to abandon Ukraine.

This all depends on the resolve of the Ukrainian people not the West. The West has made clear what it will and will not do. It is willing to invest the money it takes. Ukrainians have everything to fight for and time is running against Russia as well or more so.

[SeattleUte]

Dark humor.

https://twitter.com/darthputinkgb/status/1503721083878494212?s=21