Ukraine - somebody explain to me

[Northwestcoug]

Wrong. We can't give Ukraine enough help short of direct engagement with Russia. The stakes could not be higher.

Help me understand what more we could be doing short of direct engagement. Ban Russian oil imports? Sure, should be on the table. But IMO pretty much everything short of direct war has been thrown at Russia. I think it's unprecedented in our times the amount and speed of cooperation the rest of the world has brought against Russia.

[Commando]

Man I don't think Russia anticipated the literal quagmire they would be stuck in with their cute little 'blitzkrieg.' The fact that they are proposing terms to withdraw is flooring and just as telling. The ball is certainly in Ukraine's court. They'll kick Russia out on their terms and then join the EU and NATO, never to be invaded and left on an island again.

[Non Sequitur]

Help me understand what more we could be doing short of direct engagement. Ban Russian oil imports? Sure, should be on the table. But IMO pretty much everything short of direct war has been thrown at Russia. I think it's unprecedented in our times the amount and speed of cooperation the rest of the world has brought against Russia.

The obvious non-economic area is the supply of arms to Ukraine. How far do we go with supplying military support without actually firing any weapons.

[myboynoah]

Help me understand what more we could be doing short of direct engagement. Ban Russian oil imports? Sure, should be on the table. But IMO pretty much everything short of direct war has been thrown at Russia. I think it's unprecedented in our times the amount and speed of cooperation the rest of the world has brought against Russia.

Obviously, none of us know the extent of the support we can and are already providing, but I suspect there is still more we can do short of overt direct involvement.

This is an interesting thread about an intercept of an FSB phone call from Ukraine back to HQ reporting the latest death of a Russian major general. It was on unsecured networks because the secured network has broken down. Some suggest that is due to countermeasures from someplace. Hmmmmmmmm.

We want to force Russian battlefield communications out into the open. Digging through, formatting and analyzing those communications is a big job. Are the Ukrainians fully capable of that?

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[PaloAltoCougar]

Loved this tweet buried in the thread just posted:

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Slava Ukraini!!!

[Jeff Lebowski]

Loved this tweet buried in the thread just posted:

Slava Ukraini!!!

That is really cool.

If the Ukranians pull this off, they will be legends. Hell, they already are.

[Northwestcoug]

The obvious non-economic area is the supply of arms to Ukraine. How far do we go with supplying military support without actually firing any weapons.

which we are already doing. And it’s about to get more extensive. Poland and the US are in talks to give some MiG fighters that the Ukrainians know how to fly, in exchange for some of our jets.

again, I am fully supportive. I just think we are further past the line that would have been drawn just a few short years ago.

[myboynoah]

Good hell, Russia.

Big warning, very graffic and way too much video spent on it, so I'm not embedding it.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/...08658938871810

[myboynoah]

This guy still killing it.

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[LVAllen]

Good hell, Russia.

Big warning, very graffic and way too much video spent on it, so I'm not embedding it.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/...08658938871810

The Nazis were being very sneaky, transporting troops in civilian cars and disguised as civilians. The brave warriors of Mother Russia were only defending themselves from the wars these civilian-terrorists would undoubtedly incite in the future. The dezanification and Glorious Liberation is continuing as planned. Glory to Arstotzka!

[USUC]

It seems like I follow a lot of the same sources on social media as you all, but I'm not sure many of you are following people that are anti-Putin but believe Russia is succeeding at their objective and we are all about to see a result we are going to be sorely disappointed in. Just a couple of names in particular are @GrayConnolly and @billroggio

Sometimes I feel a bit optimistic by hearing all the Ukrainian journalists and 24 hour news pundits that Russia is getting owned and destroyed. That they are demoralized and that a couple is near. But I ultimately default back to being a history undergrad and what I learned in my history of the Slavic people and Cold War courses. For the most part Russian imperialism is supported by the population and will be regardless of who leads the empire. They view war and the value of human life differently than we do in the West. They have a very specific understanding of their "history" and what they are entitled to.

Will all this in mind, most likely everything east of the Dnieper will be consumed and integrated into Russia. The military personnel and equipment dwarf that of Ukraine's. They are willing to sustain large losses because they can replace them. Ukraine can't. They rely more on artillery than boots on the ground. They will level the major population centers and depopulate them (mostly by allowing refugees to go west. Less mouths for them to feed and less resistance). They will then focus on making the west part of Ukraine a failed state. What's left of the country may be able to resist this and pull themselves together enough to prosper and I hope they do. If they are lucky they'll get to keep Odessa. Putin will take this as a win. I think believing Ukraine can push out the invaders or that the Russians will collapse before they take half the country just isn't likely. I'm no expert though and I pray every night that I'm wrong. I'm just a bit concerned that we are buying a bit too much into the Ukrainian rose colored glasses.

[myboynoah]

Chronic Poseur? More like Chronic Buzzkiller.

You make very good points. Very few people didn't expect Russian tanks to roll into Kyev within three days. Similarly I think most people understand that the Russians should eventually have the ability to inflict their will on at least the Eastern half of Ukraine. But it's not like they haven't been trying and they are experiencing a hard slog. So, over 3-6 months, sure, with enough artillary and bombs and rockets, they should be able to level enough area to take at least the major cities in that territory. But:

• The problems that have kept Russian troops out of Kyev and other major targest will continue to dog the Russians.
• I can't see the West and its allies accepting this ongoing infliction of pain. Russia will become increasingly isolated.
• Economic sanctions are going to hurt back in Russia. It will only get worse over time.
• A significant number of people back in Russia are very unhappy with this war, to the point that they continue to take to the streets.
• I can't see the other Russians who are generally supportive of this action continuing their support in the face of a 3-6 month hard slog that sends more and more boys home in body bags.
• So far, Ukrainians have been pretty bad ass and they are defending their homes, their families, their freedom.

This is not the Russia of even 20 years ago. It's more cosmopolitan. It's been more connected to the rest of the world. It likes McDo hamburgers, iPods, Netflix, and Marvel movies. And like everyone else, Russians want to be liked by others. Becoming an international pariah will not sit well. That type of isolation will threaten Putin even if he has somehow established nominal control over some leveled cities in Ukraine.

But I'm just an amateur trying not to get too elated over some obviously biased reporting.

[USUC]

Chronic Poseur? More like Chronic Buzzkiller.

You make very good points. Very few people didn't expect Russian tanks to roll into Kyev within three days. Similarly I think most people understand that the Russians should eventually have the ability to inflict their will on at least the Eastern half of Ukraine. But it's not like they haven't been trying and they are experiencing a hard slog. So, over 3-6 months, sure, with enough artillary and bombs and rockets, they should be able to level enough area to take at least the major cities in that territory. But:

• The problems that have kept Russian troops out of Kyev and other major targest will continue to dog the Russians.
• I can't see the West and its allies accepting this ongoing infliction of pain. Russia will become increasingly isolated.
• Economic sanctions are going to hurt back in Russia. It will only get worse over time.
• A significant number of people back in Russia are very unhappy with this war, to the point that they continue to take to the streets.
• I can't see the other Russians who are generally supportive of this action continuing their support in the face of a 3-6 month hard slog that sends more and more boys home in body bags.
• So far, Ukrainians have been pretty bad ass and they are defending their homes, their families, their freedom.

This is not the Russia of even 20 years ago. It's more cosmopolitan. It's been more connected to the rest of the world. It likes McDo hamburgers, iPods, Netflix, and Marvel movies. And like everyone else, Russians want to be liked by others. Becoming an international pariah will not sit well. That type of isolation will threaten Putin even if he has somehow established nominal control over some leveled cities in Ukraine.

But I'm just an amateur trying not to get too elated over some obviously biased reporting.

Don't get me wrong, I enjoy seeing videos of destroyed Russian equipment. Of helicopters getting blown out of the sky. But the Russians columns in the northeast and south are headed towards each other. The Ukrainians in the east may be cut off soon enough. The quagmire in the north by kyiv may just be waiting for these joint forces in the east to move west.

What the world really needs is for Georgia to stir up some shit in their occupied areas. Moldova with theirs. Belarus to try a coup. Japan to try and take kuril islands, etc. I heard something like 70% of Russia's fighting force is in Ukraine. Plenty of opportunities for others to take advantage.

[fusnik]

I don’t know much about military assets but if Russias military is this badly prepared with this shitty of equipment should we really be worried about their nuclear arsenal?

Chinas shit can’t be any better can it?

Im feeling really good about our woke military right now.

[LVAllen]

I don’t know much about military assets but if Russias military is this badly prepared with this shitty of equipment should we really be worried about their nuclear arsenal?

Chinas shit can’t be any better can it?

Im feeling really good about our woke military right now.

The problem with nukes is that they are designed to be around for a long time without taking it out to kick the tires, so to speak. They were meant to sit in silos for decades before launch.