Ukraine - somebody explain to me

[Goatnapper'96]

Most analysts believe Ukraine has established positions on east/south side of the Dnipro River. Likely, the much ballyhooed counteroffensive has started.

[RC Vikings]

Most analysts believe Ukraine has established positions on east/south side of the Dnipro River. Likely, the much ballyhooed counteroffensive has started.

It would be nice if they could end this war this summer. Where would Ukraine stop if they can advance, at the border or would they continue in a little ways.

[Goatnapper'96]

It would be nice if they could end this war this summer. Where would Ukraine stop if they can advance, at the border or would they continue in a little ways.

That would be great but I don't think it likely they take that much terrain back this summer. I think that enough Russians realize the difficult situation the Russians have gotten themselves into and have worked to convince Putin of the need to swing from an offensive to defensive posture in many fronts. This summer will be key for Ukraine to demonstrate that it can in fact reclaim territory from a dug in Russian army. I figure if/when Ukraine starts to demonstrate the capacity to out manuever the Russian Army and dislodge it from its defensive positions and re-take Ukrainian land Russia will start to sue for peace and hope that the Western/NATO support for Ukraine begins to ebb and the Russians hope they can continue to hold what it is they have taken. I think if Ukraine can demonstrate the decisive capacity to eventually defeat the Russians in Ukraine, within a reasonable time frame, the West will stay behind them, but if it looks like it is going to take many years for that victory to come I expect the political winds will change wrt western support.

[Bo Diddley]

That would be great but I don't think it likely they take that much terrain back this summer. I think that enough Russians realize the difficult situation the Russians have gotten themselves into and have worked to convince Putin of the need to swing from an offensive to defensive posture in many fronts. This summer will be key for Ukraine to demonstrate that it can in fact reclaim territory from a dug in Russian army. I figure if/when Ukraine starts to demonstrate the capacity to out manuever the Russian Army and dislodge it from its defensive positions and re-take Ukrainian land Russia will start to sue for peace and hope that the Western/NATO support for Ukraine begins to ebb and the Russians hope they can continue to hold what it is they have taken. I think if Ukraine can demonstrate the decisive capacity to eventually defeat the Russians in Ukraine, within a reasonable time frame, the West will stay behind them, but if it looks like it is going to take many years for that victory to come I expect the political winds will change wrt western support.

Let's go!

[Jeff Lebowski]

Wow.

Embedded Tweet

[Bo Diddley]

Russia claiming Ukraine tried to target Putin in his Kremlin residence with two drones.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ia-2023-05-03/

[PaloAltoCougar]

Michael McFaul (U.S. ambassador to Russia during much of the Obama administration) is teaching an excellent class I’m taking. Last evening, he and the two other instructors spoke about Ukraine. McFaul gave some security reasons why the U.S. needs to fully support Ukraine (there were moral and other reasons as well that I’ll not include). None of these are surprising but the quick summary he provided may be useful when discussing this with friends. In brief:

If Ukraine wins:
--China will be more deterred as it will be apparent the costs of a Taiwan invasion will be catastrophic with, at best, an uncertain outcome
--Democratic movements in many countries (e.g., Georgia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Belarus, and perhaps even Russia) will be strengthened/emboldened
--The end of Putinism and hope for Russia

If Ukraine loses:
--NATO allies will be nervous that they’re next, and U.S. defense spending will increase
--China will be emboldened vis a vis Taiwan
--Those threatened/pressured by China will hedge against declining U.S. influence
--Global South will also hedge
--Democracy worldwide (including the U.S.) will further decline
--Dealing with Russia will become more difficult

McFaul is the ambassador Trump considered (during Trump’s very disturbing performance at the 2018 Helsinki conference) handing over to Putin for questioning about McFaul’s role in the protests in Russia—McFaul is not a Trump fan. He’s also critical of the U.S.’s handling of Ukraine during the Obama years.

McFaul noted that while Ukraine essentially won the war in 2022, wars are only truly won in the last year, and he fears the war is headed toward a stalemate, esp. if the West's support begins to wane.

[SeattleUte]

Michael McFaul (U.S. ambassador to Russia during much of the Obama administration) is teaching an excellent class I’m taking. Last evening, he and the two other instructors spoke about Ukraine. McFaul gave some security reasons why the U.S. needs to fully support Ukraine (there were moral and other reasons as well that I’ll not include). None of these are surprising but the quick summary he provided may be useful when discussing this with friends. In brief:

If Ukraine wins:
--China will be more deterred as it will be apparent the costs of a Taiwan invasion will be catastrophic with, at best, an uncertain outcome
--Democratic movements in many countries (e.g., Georgia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Belarus, and perhaps even Russia) will be strengthened/emboldened
--The end of Putinism and hope for Russia

If Ukraine loses:
--NATO allies will be nervous that they’re next, and U.S. defense spending will increase
--China will be emboldened vis a vis Taiwan
--Those threatened/pressured by China will hedge against declining U.S. influence
--Global South will also hedge
--Democracy worldwide (including the U.S.) will further decline
--Dealing with Russia will become more difficult

McFaul is the ambassador Trump considered (during Trump’s very disturbing performance at the 2018 Helsinki conference) handing over to Putin for questioning about McFaul’s role in the protests in Russia—McFaul is not a Trump fan. He’s also critical of the U.S.’s handling of Ukraine during the Obama years.

McFaul noted that while Ukraine essentially won the war in 2022, wars are only truly won in the last year, and he fears the war is headed toward a stalemate, esp. if the West's support begins to wane.

Excellent.

[Pelado]

Michael McFaul (U.S. ambassador to Russia during much of the Obama administration) is teaching an excellent class I’m taking. Last evening, he and the two other instructors spoke about Ukraine. McFaul gave some security reasons why the U.S. needs to fully support Ukraine (there were moral and other reasons as well that I’ll not include). None of these are surprising but the quick summary he provided may be useful when discussing this with friends. In brief:

If Ukraine wins:
--China will be more deterred as it will be apparent the costs of a Taiwan invasion will be catastrophic with, at best, an uncertain outcome
--Democratic movements in many countries (e.g., Georgia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Belarus, and perhaps even Russia) will be strengthened/emboldened
--The end of Putinism and hope for Russia

If Ukraine loses:
--NATO allies will be nervous that they’re next, and U.S. defense spending will increase
--China will be emboldened vis a vis Taiwan
--Those threatened/pressured by China will hedge against declining U.S. influence
--Global South will also hedge
--Democracy worldwide (including the U.S.) will further decline
--Dealing with Russia will become more difficult

McFaul is the ambassador Trump considered (during Trump’s very disturbing performance at the 2018 Helsinki conference) handing over to Putin for questioning about McFaul’s role in the protests in Russia—McFaul is not a Trump fan. He’s also critical of the U.S.’s handling of Ukraine during the Obama years.

McFaul noted that while Ukraine essentially won the war in 2022, wars are only truly won in the last year, and he fears the war is headed toward a stalemate, esp. if the West's support begins to wane.

Pretend for a moment that I'm unclear on what constitutes the "Global South". How would you define it?

[Bo Diddley]

Pretend for a moment that I'm unclear on what constitutes the "Global South". How would you define it?

I took that to mean developing nations which are mostly in Africa , South America and South Asia.

[PaloAltoCougar]

Pretend for a moment that I'm unclear on what constitutes the "Global South". How would you define it?

It's a little hazy, but essentially it's the less industrialized countries in the Southern Hemisphere--Africa, Central America, and perhaps parts of Asia. China has been making considerable inroads (literally and figuratively) in Africa. [edit--what Bo said]

[Pelado]

I took that to mean developing nations which are mostly in Africa , South America and South Asia.

Stick to your lane, Bo!

It's a little hazy, but essentially it's the less industrialized countries in the Southern Hemisphere--Africa, Central America, and perhaps parts of Asia. China has been making considerable inroads (literally and figuratively) in Africa. [edit--what Bo said]

Uh, nevermind my earlier comment, Bo.

[Shaka]

I agree with his thinking. It sounds like an interesting class. I'm very concerned about China's meddling in Africa.

[frank ryan]

Michael McFaul (U.S. ambassador to Russia during much of the Obama administration) is teaching an excellent class I’m taking. Last evening, he and the two other instructors spoke about Ukraine. McFaul gave some security reasons why the U.S. needs to fully support Ukraine (there were moral and other reasons as well that I’ll not include). None of these are surprising but the quick summary he provided may be useful when discussing this with friends. In brief:

If Ukraine wins:
--China will be more deterred as it will be apparent the costs of a Taiwan invasion will be catastrophic with, at best, an uncertain outcome
--Democratic movements in many countries (e.g., Georgia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Belarus, and perhaps even Russia) will be strengthened/emboldened
--The end of Putinism and hope for Russia

If Ukraine loses:
--NATO allies will be nervous that they’re next, and U.S. defense spending will increase
--China will be emboldened vis a vis Taiwan
--Those threatened/pressured by China will hedge against declining U.S. influence
--Global South will also hedge
--Democracy worldwide (including the U.S.) will further decline
--Dealing with Russia will become more difficult

McFaul is the ambassador Trump considered (during Trump’s very disturbing performance at the 2018 Helsinki conference) handing over to Putin for questioning about McFaul’s role in the protests in Russia—McFaul is not a Trump fan. He’s also critical of the U.S.’s handling of Ukraine during the Obama years.

McFaul noted that while Ukraine essentially won the war in 2022, wars are only truly won in the last year, and he fears the war is headed toward a stalemate, esp. if the West's support begins to wane.

I'm not trying to pick on Libertarians, but the reality is the US hasn't enjoyed wealth, significant peace and security and overall stability because of recalcitrant isolation, but because we have had powerful foreign policy successes. Trump's whining about NATO, and talk of abandonment, should disqualify him as commander and chief.

There have been egregious military engagements, particularly during the Cold War (I'm looking at the Ghost of Ronald Reagan here) but the absence of American presence and power would have meant Soviet and Chinese supremacy. That would be disastrous for the world and despite previous thoughts inspired by Noam Chomsky books and punk rock songs, American pacifism was never the answer. Scrutiny is warranted, but scars and wounds aside, shrinking global engagement would not have mean safety or security.

[YOhio]

If true this is very encouraging as a defense against hypersonic. I’m a bit skeptical that’s it’s propaganda coming so soon after Russia just ko’d a massive stockpile of NATO-supplied armaments.


https://apnews.com/article/russia-uk...16dd8d607768be