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The 2016 Presidential Election Trainwreck

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  • Originally posted by Omaha 680 View Post
    Perhaps the appropriate course correction would be to follow the democrat lead and appoint superdelegates as insurance for situations like this.
    It might save an election in the short term. But if there is a significant percentage of right-leaning voters who are angry at the 'establishment' enough to vote for someone like Trump, any movement to give more power to the 'establishment' will most likely create even more backlash.

    When I heard about the superdelegates in the democratic nomination process, I thought that was crazy. But then I also read someone's opinion that the republican process is also messed up:

    Today's nominating process doesn't just weaken the GOP candidate before he faces off against the Democrats: It also fails to produce consensus within the Republican Party itself. Whereas under the old convention system delegates were required to reach a consensus choice — no matter how long it took — today's system is mostly a test of survival. Candidates now do not need to cobble together a majority of the Republican electorate so much as they need to mobilize a sufficiently large minority of it and then wait for the other candidates to fold as the media declares that their campaigns are doomed.

    Worse, the scope of citizen participation in this charade is exceedingly narrow, despite the fact that the process has nominally been expanded in many states to include voters (such as registered independents) who are not affiliated with the party. The reason is that the winnowing process regularly cuts the number of viable candidates down to only one halfway through the nomination contest, if not far earlier. For example, in 2012, the Republican nomination battle effectively ended with the Wisconsin primary on April 3, even though Mitt Romney won less than half the vote there. States whose contests were held afterward — including Texas, California, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania — did not have competitive primaries and thus had no real say in the selection of the nominee...

    Finally, there is the rise of a group euphemistically known as "low-information voters." As more states (24 of them by 2012) have allowed "open" or "semi-closed" primaries — in which a voter need not even be a registered Republican to participate — the party's nominee-selection process has grown increasingly disconnected from the priorities of its members and voters. This has had a significant effect on the process, as the winning candidate often claims victory not so much because he has articulated the values and interests he shares with the whole party, but because his advertisements managed to sway the late-deciding, quasi-independent voters who have little stake in the outcome.
    http://www.nationalaffairs.com/publi...nation-process
    "...you pointy-headed autopsy nerd. Do you think it's possible for you to post without using words like "hilarious," "absurd," "canard," and "truther"? Your bare assertions do not make it so. Maybe your reasoning is too stunted and your vocabulary is too limited to go without these epithets."
    "You are an intemperate, unscientific poster who makes light of very serious matters.”
    - SeattleUte

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Maximus View Post
      Smoke!

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post
        Nobody is claiming that Trump will be able to become a dictator. That is just a dumb strawman that SU tossed out.
        No. BlueK tossed it out. I'm the one who said we don't need to worry about Donald Trump becoming a dictator.

        Originally posted by BlueK View Post
        Well, whether Trump means it or not, it's pretty universal through history that rising dictators signal well ahead what they plan to do. And many times most people just assume they aren't being serious until they get there and actually do it. Trump tells me what he stands for and I HATE IT. So I won't vote that piece of shit.
        When a true genius appears, you can know him by this sign: that all the dunces are in a confederacy against him.

        --Jonathan Swift

        Comment


        • Originally posted by SeattleUte View Post
          No. BlueK tossed it out. I'm the one who said we don't need to worry about Donald Trump becoming a dictator.
          Sorry. My bad.
          "There is no creature more arrogant than a self-righteous libertarian on the web, am I right? Those folks are just intolerable."
          "It's no secret that the great American pastime is no longer baseball. Now it's sanctimony." -- Guy Periwinkle, The Nix.
          "Juilliardk N I ibuprofen Hyu I U unhurt u" - creekster

          Comment


          • Originally posted by SeattleUte View Post
            Oh brother. Don't believe everything you read.
            Originally posted by SeattleUte View Post
            There are also plenty of people with means and education who don't like the way the tax rate has gone. There are one-issue voters in this respect.
            Originally posted by SeattleUte View Post
            I'm not worried about a dictatorship in America. Worry about something realistic.
            Originally posted by SeattleUte View Post
            No. BlueK tossed it out. I'm the one who said we don't need to worry about Donald Trump becoming a dictator.
            I knew it... SU is a Drumpf fanboy!
            "If there is one thing I am, it's always right." -Ted Nugent.
            "I honestly believe saying someone is a smart lawyer is damning with faint praise. The smartest people become engineers and scientists." -SU.
            "Yet I still see wisdom in that which Uncle Ted posts." -creek.
            GIVE 'EM HELL, BRIGHAM!

            Comment


            • Originally posted by I.J. Reilly View Post
              This was an interesting read from Marginal Revolution on core differences between Republicans and Democrats: http://marginalrevolution.com/margin...democrats.html
              I agree with much of it.
              We all trust our own unorthodoxies.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Maximus View Post
                Before anyone gets all hot and bothered by a potential Romney run, does anyone believe he can surmount Trump's delegate lead at this point? The only possible hope is a fight at the nomination, with Romney winning a brokered convention, right?

                I wonder how motivated that would make Trump supporters to vote on election day...
                "...you pointy-headed autopsy nerd. Do you think it's possible for you to post without using words like "hilarious," "absurd," "canard," and "truther"? Your bare assertions do not make it so. Maybe your reasoning is too stunted and your vocabulary is too limited to go without these epithets."
                "You are an intemperate, unscientific poster who makes light of very serious matters.”
                - SeattleUte

                Comment


                • Originally posted by byu71 View Post
                  Before someone says it, yes I am on a presciption today. Now, am I getting a sense some of you think Trump could become a dictator or have I missed the points being made. If some are promoting the dictator scenario, even on drugs I can come to the conclusion that is silly. Obama can't pull it off, why would trump be able to.
                  Pulling it off and wishing to pull it off are two different things. I vote on what the guy stands for, and he stands for stuff like limiting and penalizing speech. I don't care if he can pull it off or not. But why in the hell would I vote for someone who talks about how he'd like to do things like that? That fact that he probably couldn't pull it off doesn't make him a palatable candidate.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Northwestcoug View Post
                    Before anyone gets all hot and bothered by a potential Romney run, does anyone believe he can surmount Trump's delegate lead at this point? The only possible hope is a fight at the nomination, with Romney winning a brokered convention, right?

                    I wonder how motivated that would make Trump supporters to vote on election day...
                    Republicans are even dumber than I thought (even with Trump winning right now) if they think that a brokered convention is the answer. If Trump is the delegate leader going in the convention and doesn't receive the nomination, what are the chances he runs 3rd party just to spite the republicans? My guess is the chances are pretty close to 100%.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Northwestcoug View Post
                      Before anyone gets all hot and bothered by a potential Romney run, does anyone believe he can surmount Trump's delegate lead at this point? The only possible hope is a fight at the nomination, with Romney winning a brokered convention, right?

                      I wonder how motivated that would make Trump supporters to vote on election day...
                      there is still a chance the group can hold him to less than 50% of the delegates. It's not a great chance, but still possible. I don't know for sure what Romney will say, but he isn't going to be announcing he's running.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Northwestcoug View Post
                        Before anyone gets all hot and bothered by a potential Romney run, does anyone believe he can surmount Trump's delegate lead at this point? The only possible hope is a fight at the nomination, with Romney winning a brokered convention, right?

                        I wonder how motivated that would make Trump supporters to vote on election day...
                        No way is he running.
                        "There is no creature more arrogant than a self-righteous libertarian on the web, am I right? Those folks are just intolerable."
                        "It's no secret that the great American pastime is no longer baseball. Now it's sanctimony." -- Guy Periwinkle, The Nix.
                        "Juilliardk N I ibuprofen Hyu I U unhurt u" - creekster

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by wally View Post
                          Look, in my initial comment I agreed that the Authoritarian hypothesis had merit, and I agreed that it explained a good part of the Trump phenomenon, I just didn't think that it captured the complexity of the support he is receiving, but maybe we all do have a latent authoritarian gene or something.

                          Sometimes Donut, I have no idea what you are arguing for or against.
                          I am mostly giving you s*** for saying the authoritarian explanation is simplistic when it seems to be extremely complex and layered.

                          FTR, I don't think you are unintelligent.
                          Prepare to put mustard on those words, for you will soon be consuming them, along with this slice of humble pie that comes direct from the oven of shame set at gas mark “egg on your face”! -- Moss

                          There's three rules that I live by: never get less than twelve hours sleep; never play cards with a guy who's got the same first name as a city; and never go near a lady's got a tattoo of a dagger on her body. Now you stick to that, everything else is cream cheese. --Coach Finstock

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post
                            No way is he running.
                            I agree. He doesn't have the best political instincts, but he's smart. There's no way he wins a nomination.
                            "...you pointy-headed autopsy nerd. Do you think it's possible for you to post without using words like "hilarious," "absurd," "canard," and "truther"? Your bare assertions do not make it so. Maybe your reasoning is too stunted and your vocabulary is too limited to go without these epithets."
                            "You are an intemperate, unscientific poster who makes light of very serious matters.”
                            - SeattleUte

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Northwestcoug View Post
                              I agree. He doesn't have the best political instincts, but he's smart. There's no way he wins a nomination.
                              Doesnt need to .

                              Independent Romney

                              Comment


                              • Another interesting breakdown of Trump support:

                                http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/31/up...crat.html?_r=0

                                He is strongest among Republicans who are less affluent, less educated and less likely to turn out to vote. His very best voters are self-identified Republicans who nonetheless are registered as Democrats. It’s a coalition that’s concentrated in the South, Appalachia and the industrial North, according to data provided to The Upshot by Civis Analytics, a Democratic data firm.
                                "There is no creature more arrogant than a self-righteous libertarian on the web, am I right? Those folks are just intolerable."
                                "It's no secret that the great American pastime is no longer baseball. Now it's sanctimony." -- Guy Periwinkle, The Nix.
                                "Juilliardk N I ibuprofen Hyu I U unhurt u" - creekster

                                Comment

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