The 2016 Presidential Election Trainwreck

[Sullyute]

The law change was, but Obama changing his stance on marriage equality was a huge piece of it, which helped keep the momentum going for the public to continue to change as well.

Obama was late to the gay marriage game, but didn't he instruct the Justice dept to stop enforcing DOMA and not defend it in the courts?

[imanihonjin]

Sure.

[BlueK]

he has lived in NH, no money, no real organization outside NH, not seeing it

Maybe you're right. But he benefits from the fact he has 10+ days to hit S. Carolina, and some money is going to flow his way now. It is noteworthy that he delivered a pretty big blow to all of what the media is calling the "establishment" candidates: Rubio, Bush and Christie. Christie is done and Rubio is pretty severely wounded. All of those guys also hit NH pretty hard and Kasich's message is the one that resonated the most. Kasich could very well take a lot of Christie's and Rubio's votes. I'm sure in the next couple of days a new poll in SC will come out and I wouldn't be surprised if it shows Kasich neck and neck with Bush for that "establishment" vote and Rubio dropping to the bottom

[Northwestcoug]

The worst of all possible scenarios happened for Rubio: Trump is still a major contender, Kasich had a very strong night, and Cruz got enough 'anybody but Trump' votes that should have been his. And to add insult to injury, Bush(!) beat him. At this point, he has become a caricature which he cannot dispel. And, two states have shown pretty solidly that they don't think he's a serious contender.

Not so bold prediction: Rubio will not win the nomination.

[BlueK]

I think Rubio loses badly in SC and will be done.

[BlueK]

This article pretty much sums up Trump. On "Morning Joe" this morning they were talking about whether Trump will be able to cuss and insult his way to the presidency because that seems to be what his style and message is.

http://www.vox.com/2016/2/10/1095697...ump-terrifying

[byu71]

If all these candidates not named Trump stay in the run for the nomination too long, Trump could very well 36% himself into the republican nomination.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Maybe you're right. But he benefits from the fact he has 10+ days to hit S. Carolina, and some money is going to flow his way now. It is noteworthy that he delivered a pretty big blow to all of what the media is calling the "establishment" candidates: Rubio, Bush and Christie. Christie is done and Rubio is pretty severely wounded. All of those guys also hit NH pretty hard and Kasich's message is the one that resonated the most. Kasich could very well take a lot of Christie's and Rubio's votes. I'm sure in the next couple of days a new poll in SC will come out and I wouldn't be surprised if it shows Kasich neck and neck with Bush for that "establishment" vote and Rubio dropping to the bottom

That's the spirit!

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

This article pretty much sums up Trump. On "Morning Joe" this morning they were talking about whether Trump will be able to cuss and insult his way to the presidency because that seems to be what his style and message is.

http://www.vox.com/2016/2/10/1095697...ump-terrifying

I love every article reading the bitter political commentators coming to the sad realization that they are nothing more than the lowly sports journalists they look down on. Trump is a dumpster fire, but maybe he's hopefully by being an over the top character of the entire system maybe people decide to actually find candidates and votes to change.

[Moliere]

The worst of all possible scenarios happened for Rubio: Trump is still a major contender, Kasich had a very strong night, and Cruz got enough 'anybody but Trump' votes that should have been his. And to add insult to injury, Bush(!) beat him. At this point, he has become a caricature which he cannot dispel. And, two states have shown pretty solidly that they don't think he's a serious contender.

Not so bold prediction: Rubio will not win the nomination.

The funny thing is that they all do the same thing, Rubio was just too dumb and kept doing it time after time after time. The GOP debates are just 25 second rehearsed speeches. It doesn't matter what question is asked, they pivot to something else tangentially related (or sometimes not even remotely related) and spew off a 25 second speech. Christie does it too as does Jeb and teh rest. Honestly, I think Cruz is the worst in that his sound bites are tailor made for FB and Twitter posts, which is where they end up 5 mins after he delivers them on tv. Cruz is just smart enough to not repeat the same thing 4 times in a row. I'd say that Kasich is the only one that doesn't seem to give rehearsed crap, although I'm sure it's rehearsed he just doesn't make it sound that way. Paul actually didn't sound rehearsed either, but he's obviously gone. Trump doesn't sound rehearsed but he still says the same thing over and over.

The Dems do it too, but their debates are more rambling than anything. Clinton gave a 10 minute answer to a town hall question last week and in those 10 minutes she never once directly addressed the quesiton but just wandered in circles trying to figure out a way out of the question. If she were really honest, she would have just said "I don't know but give me a couple days to ask my advisors what people want me to say and then I'll say it."

[BlueK]

That's the spirit!

Well, I did just give him $25, so there's that.

[Northwestcoug]

The funny thing is that they all do the same thing, Rubio was just too dumb and kept doing it time after time after time. The GOP debates are just 25 second rehearsed speeches. It doesn't matter what question is asked, they pivot to something else tangentially related (or sometimes not even remotely related) and spew off a 25 second speech. Christie does it too as does Jeb and teh rest. Honestly, I think Cruz is the worst in that his sound bites are tailor made for FB and Twitter posts, which is where they end up 5 mins after he delivers them on tv. Cruz is just smart enough to not repeat the same thing 4 times in a row. I'd say that Kasich is the only one that doesn't seem to give rehearsed crap, although I'm sure it's rehearsed he just doesn't make it sound that way. Paul actually didn't sound rehearsed either, but he's obviously gone. Trump doesn't sound rehearsed but he still says the same thing over and over.

The Dems do it too, but their debates are more rambling than anything. Clinton gave a 10 minute answer to a town hall question last week and in those 10 minutes she never once directly addressed the quesiton but just wandered in circles trying to figure out a way out of the question. If she were really honest, she would have just said "I don't know but give me a couple days to ask my advisors what people want me to say and then I'll say it."

I pretty much agree. It was fatal to Rubio because the knock against him was that other than a youthful presence and an inspiring upbringing, he is a political lightweight. The fact that Christie was able to so easily bully him about it, and he stood by helplessly while Christie destroyed him, fed into that caricature.

I still amazed that Cruz is pretty much immune to a similar attack. He basically has the same amount of political expericence as Rubio, yet no one is attacking him similarly.

[All-American]

I pretty much agree. It was fatal to Rubio because the knock against him was that other than a youthful presence and an inspiring upbringing, he is a political lightweight. The fact that Christie was able to so easily bully him about it, and he stood by helplessly while Christie destroyed him, fed into that caricature.

I still amazed that Cruz is pretty much immune to a similar attack. He basically has the same amount of political expericence as Rubio, yet no one is attacking him similarly.

NH was a disaster for Rubio, but it may not have been fatal. He has maybe one or two chances to show that he had an off night and that the knocks against him are unfounded. The big question is whether he rises to the occasion. I think he will, somewhat, but not enough to put him back on the path to nomination.

I think Cruz's "immunity" has a lot to do with the fact that he has made a living throwing himself into the fire and fielding intense inquiry. This is a guy who has gone from HLS to SCOTUS clerk to Texas Solicitor General to firebrand Senator, staking controversial positions at just about every stop. He does as well under fire as anybody in the field, and, in my opinion, benefits enormously from Trump's presence in the race. With the Donald getting all the spotlight for his buffoonery, one almost forgets that Cruz, who looks positively statesmanlike by comparison, has no business being anywhere near the Button, either.

I would sure love a Kasich-Rubio ticket.

[New Mexican Disaster]

I pretty much agree. It was fatal to Rubio because the knock against him was that other than a youthful presence and an inspiring upbringing, he is a political lightweight. The fact that Christie was able to so easily bully him about it, and he stood by helplessly while Christie destroyed him, fed into that caricature.

I still amazed that Cruz is pretty much immune to a similar attack. He basically has the same amount of political expericence as Rubio, yet no one is attacking him similarly.

Rubio is the Republican John Edwards. Without the baby.

[byu71]

Anyone on here for Trump or Bernie? None of my friends or associates at work like either one. Most here in the office like Kasich. One of the associates likes Hillary. I have a couple of hard core conservatives boys. I am trying to talk them out of supporting Cruz.