The Police Brutality Thread

[Jeff Lebowski]

JL, I know this is off the topic a bit, but I have to ask you to explain your position on a couple of your comments. I actually agree with your basic premise on both positions, but I'm curious about the details. I'm not challenging you, but I do see the details differently, so I'd like a little more explanation to see if there is something I'm not getting.

We were talking about a study that showed white people would choose a black person as more likely to be a criminal, which is correct based on probabilities. I pointed that out, and this was your response. I agree that there is an innate subconscious bias, but I don't see this study as presented as proof. Specifically, how would researchers adjust for the fact that blacks are more likely commit a crime in the US than any other race? Isn't it like making an adjustment for people saying that the sun is more likely to shine in San Diego tomorrow than Seattle to come to the conclusion that people are biased against Seattle. I'm not a social scientist, and I've never studied social science research, but it seems like a difficult factor to adjust.

The studies were covered quite thoroughly in the book. I would hope you wouldn't discredit the methodology of the studies based on a second-hand description on a message board. I suppose I could take several hours and try to track down the journal pubs in question, but I just don't have time. Sorry.

Why do you think blacks are more far more likely to receive harsher sentences by both judges and juries for equivalent crimes relative to whites, even after accounting for poverty levels? Also, recreational drug use among white youth is equal to greater than that it black communities (as a percentage of population), yet blacks overwhelming get more convictions and harsher sentences. Why is that?

I agree that black people get harsher sentences because of their skin color and background, and I also agree the war on drugs is stupid. I don't agree that the war on drugs is the reason for the high rate of single-parent families among African Americans.

Over 53% of black children live in a single parent household, and only 6.9% of them have a father in prison. This compares to 27% of Hispanic children living in a single parent home with 2.4% of them having a father in prison and 18.5% of white children living in a single parent home with .9% of them having a father in prison. This suggests that 26-36% of black children in single-parent homes are in their home situation for some reason other than a father in prison.

Looking at it using your statistic of 1 in 3 black men going to prison at some point, the numbers are similar. Half of prison inmates are marrieds, and 25% of prison inmates are incarcerated for drug offenses. Assuming the numbers are distributed equally, this means just over 4% of black married men will be incarcerated for a drug offense. Assuming that 90% of them have kids, then 3.7% of married households with kids will be affected by a drug-related incarceration. The average black household has 2.5 kids, which thus suggests 9.25% of black kids will be affected by a drug-related incarceration. This still leaves 44% of black kids in single parent homes for a reason other than the war on drugs.

You must have missed my post above. I would never argue that it is the sole reason. And your analysis doesn't account for secondary impacts, such as kids who grow up in fatherless homes (due to a drug conviction) who then commit crimes, whether drug-related or not, and then to jail, thus perpetuating the cycle. Please note that this phenomenon did not exist at anywhere near the current scale prior to the war on drugs.

[cowboy]

The studies were covered quite thoroughly in the book. I would hope you wouldn't discredit the methodology of the studies based on a second-hand description on a message board. I suppose I could take several hours and try to track down the journal pubs in question, but I just don't have time. Sorry.

Why do you think blacks are more far more likely to receive harsher sentences by both judges and juries for equivalent crimes relative to whites, even after accounting for poverty levels? Also, recreational drug use among white youth is equal to greater than that it black communities (as a percentage of population), yet blacks overwhelming get more convictions and harsher sentences. Why is that?

I made it clear that I believe there is unintentional racial bias. My question was about the example you cited. It seems there can be other causal factors for the results, and you said the researchers adjusted for them. I'm curious how such factors can be adjusted out, and you don't want to answer my question, which is fine. We both agree that racism exists.

You must have missed my post above. I would never argue that it is the sole reason. And your analysis doesn't account for secondary impacts, such as kids who grow up in fatherless homes (due to a drug conviction) who then commit crimes, whether drug-related or not, and then to jail, thus perpetuating the cycle. Please note that this phenomenon did not exist at anywhere near the current scale prior to the war on drugs.

I took your argument to mean that you believe the primary cause of black, single-parent homes is the war on drugs. Again, I agree the war on drugs is stupid, but the data don't support it as being a significant factor in black, single-parent homes like the HP article you posted infers. Sure, there are downstream effects, but it is simply not true that black kids are being raised by their mothers because their fathers are likely in prison. We can argue about the word "likely", but I'll say that a 6-10% probability doesn't meet the definition. As to the part of your quote I bolded, birth rates to unwed mothers of all races have risen dramatically since 1980, but the rate of increase has not differed substantially between blacks and other races.

[taekwondave]

Kaepernick now has company. His safety, Eric Reid, kneeled with him this time, Nate Boyer (white) the former green beret and Seahawk joined him at the game and stood beside him and hugged him after the anthem (supposedly the conversation that Kap and Reid had with Boyer convinced them it would be a little better to kneel than to sit, which is why they did it), and Seahawks starting CB (plays opposite of Sherman) also sat yesterday.

Now if we can just get them saying "stop the war on drugs" I'll be really happy. But I think this is a good start. Keep it rollin.

Oh, also for everyone saying Kap should put his money where his mouth is, he just pledged $1M to the cause so...there's that.

But we should probably all start attacking him because of his Muslim girlfriend now

[imanihonjin]

Kaepernick now has company. His safety, Eric Reid, kneeled with him this time, Nate Boyer (white) the former green beret and Seahawk joined him at the game and stood beside him and hugged him after the anthem (supposedly the conversation that Kap and Reid had with Boyer convinced them it would be a little better to kneel than to sit, which is why they did it), and Seahawks starting CB (plays opposite of Sherman) also sat yesterday.

Now if we can just get them saying "stop the war on drugs" I'll be really happy. But I think this is a good start. Keep it rollin.

Oh, also for everyone saying Kap should put his money where his mouth is, he just pledged $1M to the cause so...there's that.

But we should probably all start attacking him because of his Muslim girlfriend now

Sorry bro....this whole thing isn't going anywhere and people who thought Kap were stupid are beginning to just not care. The whole think isn't going to amount to anything.

[Jeff Lebowski]

I took your argument to mean that you believe the primary cause of black, single-parent homes is the war on drugs.

I certainly would never argue it is the only cause. Primary cause? I believe so. Significant cause? Absolutely.

Again, I agree the war on drugs is stupid, but the data don't support it as being a significant factor in black, single-parent homes like the HP article you posted infers. Sure, there are downstream effects, but it is simply not true that black kids are being raised by their mothers because their fathers are likely in prison. We can argue about the word "likely", but I'll say that a 6-10% probability doesn't meet the definition. As to the part of your quote I bolded, birth rates to unwed mothers of all races have risen dramatically since 1980, but the rate of increase has not differed substantially between blacks and other races.

The bolded part is a strawman. You admit there are downstream effects, then argue against the narrow explanation, which I never intended to make. How can you ignore downstream effects?

This NY Times article argues that incarceration and early death the primary drivers of the absentee father phenomenon:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...abt=0002&abg=0

Incarceration and early deaths are the overwhelming drivers of the gap. Of the 1.5 million missing black men from 25 to 54 — which demographers call the prime-age years — higher imprisonment rates account for almost 600,000. Almost 1 in 12 black men in this age group are behind bars, compared with 1 in 60 nonblack men in the age group, 1 in 200 black women and 1 in 500 nonblack women.

Downstream effects:

The disappearance of these men has far-reaching implications. Their absence disrupts family formation, leading both to lower marriage rates and higher rates of childbirth outside marriage, as research by Kerwin Charles, an economist at the University of Chicago, with Ming-Ching Luoh, has shown.

The black women left behind find that potential partners of the same race are scarce, while men, who face an abundant supply of potential mates, don’t need to compete as hard to find one. As a result, Mr. Charles said, “men seem less likely to commit to romantic relationships, or to work hard to maintain them.”


The imbalance has also forced women to rely on themselves — often alone — to support a household. In those states hit hardest by the high incarceration rates, African-American women have become more likely to work and more likely to pursue their education further than they are elsewhere.

[taekwondave]

Sorry bro....this whole thing isn't going anywhere and people who thought Kap were stupid are beginning to just not care. The whole think isn't going to amount to anything.

I think it already has helped. I think every little bit helps. As for those who don't want to listen to Kap and want to write him off for stupid things and ignore what he's saying, meh. There will always be those. There always have (especially here in Utah). A lot of GOOD voices have pitched in on this issue recently and it's all because of Kap. It all starts with that.

[Shaka]

Oh, also for everyone saying Kap should put his money where his mouth is, he just pledged $1M to the cause so...there's that.

:

If he had donated prior to his protest and the subsequent backlash then maybe I'd respect him. This is simply a PR move.

[falafel]

If he had donated prior to his protest and the subsequent backlash then maybe I'd respect him. This is simply a PR move.

A $1M PR move? I don't think so.

[creekster]

He hasn't given a dime yet. Let's see how much he gives and to whom before deciding.

[taekwondave]

If he had donated prior to his protest and the subsequent backlash then maybe I'd respect him. This is simply a PR move.

SIMPLY a PR move? Uh...he's not Michael Jordan. He's isn't worth a billion dollars. He's giving away almost a tenth of his contract value and this is the only good paying contract he's had so far in his career. But ok..

I dont' know why I try. Nothing is good enough for those who have made up their minds. They'll cite 5 problems, you resolve those problems, they'll come up with 5 more. When I see that I know what I'm dealing with.

[Moliere]

Kaepernick now has company. His safety, Eric Reid, kneeled with him this time, Nate Boyer (white) the former green beret and Seahawk joined him at the game and stood beside him and hugged him after the anthem (supposedly the conversation that Kap and Reid had with Boyer convinced them it would be a little better to kneel than to sit, which is why they did it), and Seahawks starting CB (plays opposite of Sherman) also sat yesterday.

Now if we can just get them saying "stop the war on drugs" I'll be really happy. But I think this is a good start. Keep it rollin.

Oh, also for everyone saying Kap should put his money where his mouth is, he just pledged $1M to the cause so...there's that.

But we should probably all start attacking him because of his Muslim girlfriend now

The awkwardness of this whole thing will be very evident soon. I mean, when will his protest end? At what point will he then stand for the national anthem? Without stating a specific request or timeline for the protest, he really can't ever stand for the anthem because then people will think whatever he wanted happened. It's just weird.

[old_gregg]

The awkwardness of this whole thing will be very evident soon. I mean, when will his protest end? At what point will he then stand for the national anthem? Without stating a specific request or timeline for the protest, he really can't ever stand for the anthem because then people will think whatever he wanted happened. It's just weird.

it will end when he gets cut

[creekster]

SIMPLY a PR move? Uh...he's not Michael Jordan. He's isn't worth a billion dollars. He's giving away almost a tenth of his contract value and this is the only good paying contract he's had so far in his career. But ok..

I dont' know why I try. Nothing is good enough for those who have made up their minds. They'll cite 5 problems, you resolve those problems, they'll come up with 5 more. When I see that I know what I'm dealing with.

It is such a heavy burden you bear. Thank you so much for being patient and suffering with us. We are all made so much better by your condescension.

[Moliere]

it will end when he gets cut

Right, but he'll bounce around the league. Of course, not making the roster of the worst team in the NFL isn't a good sign.

[falafel]

I dont' know why I try. Nothing is good enough for those who have made up their minds. They'll cite 5 problems, you resolve those problems, they'll come up with 5 more. When I see that I know what I'm dealing with.

Funny, I think a lot of people would say the same thing about you Dave!