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Hang in there everyone in Texas, hopefully things don't too rough. Last night I talked with my brothers who work in oil and gas and they are super concerned.
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My company's stock is down 50% today, and it was already depressed over the last four weeks. Ugh...Originally posted by The_Tick View PostJesus wants me for a sunbeam.
"Cog dis is a bitch." -James PattersonComment
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Same thing is happening to Occidental. Dividend yield is 25%!Originally posted by Green Monstah View Post"Friendship is the grand fundamental principle of Mormonism" - Joseph Smith Jr.Comment
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Is it just the price war between Russia and the Saudis? Or is the bigger factor excess capacity combined with a slowdown due to Corona? Are the companies' stock prices going to be depressed for the long term? Why did some fall so much more than others? Exxon is down around 12% but Occidental cratered.Part of it is based on academic grounds. Among major conferences, the Pac-10 is the best academically, largely because of Stanford, Cal and UCLA. “Colorado is on a par with Oregon,” he said. “Utah isn’t even in the picture.”Comment
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From what I've read its the combination of the price war and the recession. Just speculating but I think Exxon has a lot stronger balance sheet than Occidental. If oil drops below $20 I'm not sure how long a company like Occidental can stay in business.Originally posted by Color Me Badd Fan View Post
What I think Russia and the Saudis fail to understand is if they do put US oil producers out of business, their assets will end up with a company like Exxon. When the price of oil gets high enough, that production won't take long to come back on line.Comment
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In my game theory classes Saudi Arabia was always the big king of OPEC with the most to lose and the most willing to take it on the chin to preserve the cartel. If a small member needed to pump out extra oil in defiance of their quota, it was Saudi Arabia that always cut their production to match the overselling of oil by the rogue member. For years. Until Putin. Putin thought he could bully OPEC the way he has bullied everyone from Olympic committee members to Ukraine to Robert Kraft. I am shocked that The Kingdom decided to take on Putin, but I love watching the ruble fall from 65 to 75 roubles per dollar— probably with more sliding tomorrow.Comment
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I'm super glad you're entertained. For a large % of americans, low oil prices are not a bad thing, so in that sense I'm happy for the rest of you. But for folks in my community and industry, I hope Putin loses this game of chicken swiftly.Originally posted by Katy Lied View PostJesus wants me for a sunbeam.
"Cog dis is a bitch." -James PattersonComment
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Yeah, I have a lot of friends in the oil business and they all seem very uptight right now. Russia's costs for getting oil out of the ground is somewhere around $40/barrel so one would think they would lose at this game a lot faster than Saudi Arabia. I have always been under the impression that they can pump oil out of the ground from something like $10/barrel. But apparently they depend on oil a lot more:Originally posted by Green Monstah View Post
https://www.forbes.com/sites/daneber.../#246520325676Saudi Arabia meanwhile, may be in the weakest position. It is the world’s lowest-cost producer, with extraction costs around $3 a barrel, meaning it can generate profits in a down market better than anyone else. The kingdom also relies, however, on oil revenues more than Russia and the United States, and it needs a Brent price of $83 a barrel to balance its budget, according to the International Monetary Fund.
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What comes next depends on how far Saudi Arabia decides to up production. Unlike Russia, which has limited spare capacity, the Saudis could quickly push oil production to 12 million barrels a day in a bid to expand their market share and force Moscow back to the negotiating table.
And it seems like that is what they are doing and more. Hopefully Russia will back down here soon. I think they are BS'ing that they can pay this game for 5+ years.
I don't know if I believe that Saudi Arabia needs $83/barrel to balance their budget... It seems their national debt would be much higher than it is. It has been years since we have seen oil that high."If there is one thing I am, it's always right." -Ted Nugent.
"I honestly believe saying someone is a smart lawyer is damning with faint praise. The smartest people become engineers and scientists." -SU.
"Yet I still see wisdom in that which Uncle Ted posts." -creek.
GIVE 'EM HELL, BRIGHAM!Comment
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How low did oil go in the 2008 crisis? Did it hit $20 a barrel?
Sorry guys. This sucks for you guys in the field. My brothers are all in the field.Comment
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$30.28 on Dec 23, 2008Originally posted by beefytee View Post
It got to $26.19 in 2016
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/RWTCD.htm"Discipleship is not a spectator sport. We cannot expect to experience the blessing of faith by standing inactive on the sidelines any more than we can experience the benefits of health by sitting on a sofa watching sporting events on television and giving advice to the athletes. And yet for some, “spectator discipleship” is a preferred if not primary way of worshipping." -Pres. UchtdorfComment
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The average price per barrel since 1980 adjusted for inflation is $57, $21 a barrel is an astonishing number.Part of it is based on academic grounds. Among major conferences, the Pac-10 is the best academically, largely because of Stanford, Cal and UCLA. “Colorado is on a par with Oregon,” he said. “Utah isn’t even in the picture.”Comment
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$20.37 today"Discipleship is not a spectator sport. We cannot expect to experience the blessing of faith by standing inactive on the sidelines any more than we can experience the benefits of health by sitting on a sofa watching sporting events on television and giving advice to the athletes. And yet for some, “spectator discipleship” is a preferred if not primary way of worshipping." -Pres. UchtdorfComment
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CV19 and the price war has put me in a precarious position. I’m the last lawyer my company hired. First one out? They’re slashing costs and I’m in the midst of a relocation, where they cover moving costs, temporary housing, and closing costs. So much could happen between now and the time I’m supposed to close on my new house.
And yet, I have a weird sense of calm. If I’m canned, I have savings. I am actually sort of excited at the prospect of going into something other than oil and gas.Jesus wants me for a sunbeam.
"Cog dis is a bitch." -James PattersonComment
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Best wishes, GM. That is rough.Originally posted by Green Monstah View Post"There is no creature more arrogant than a self-righteous libertarian on the web, am I right? Those folks are just intolerable."
"It's no secret that the great American pastime is no longer baseball. Now it's sanctimony." -- Guy Periwinkle, The Nix.
"Juilliardk N I ibuprofen Hyu I U unhurt u" - creeksterComment
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