A Funny Thing Happened on the Way To Jerusalem: Gaza/Israel conflict

[Northwestcoug]

Small explosive device carried by members of the terrorist organization. I would like to know how they could have been more surgical and precise.

I mean if it's a powerful explosion and it's going off in a crowded civilian area that changes the context a little don't you think?

[Goatnapper'96]

Sure, if those bombs are targeted to just known combatants and they're detonated when there's no innocent civilians around.

I have no sympathy for Hezbollah. I want to know the details of 2700 plus wounded before I make more of a judgment call though.

That is a ridiculous metric. There is no way for Israel to defend itself, if in defending themselves killing H^2 terrorists is allowed, without there being risk to innocent civilians. Admittedly, I allow H^2 concern about their innocent civilians to heavily influence my concern for their innocent civilians.

However, when fairly analyzing this particular act of war I maintain that it would be impossible to develop an act that is more focussed on combatants and by design seeks to limit damage to civilians. I think reasonable people will agree that Israel demonstrates greater concern for innocent civilian risk than Hezbollah.

[Bo Diddley]

I'm still just in awe of such an operation.

And now I'm considering how this changes things across the board moving forward.

[Northwestcoug]

That is a ridiculous metric. There is no way for Israel to defend itself, if in defending themselves killing H^2 terrorists is allowed, without there being risk to innocent civilians. Admittedly, I allow H^2 concern about their innocent civilians to heavily influence my concern for their innocent civilians.

However, when fairly analyzing this particular act of war I maintain that it would be impossible to develop an act that is more focussed on combatants and by design seeks to limit damage to civilians. I think reasonable people will agree that Israel demonstrates greater concern for innocent civilian risk than Hezbollah.

Yes. I hope they continue to use restraint.

Look, this story is 2 days old. We have no details. I'm interested in finding them out. I think most reasonable people would want to understand more about the scope of this attack, as well as how successful or unsuccessful it was. And, understanding more about the collateral damage. I sure as hell don't know these details, Omaha's hopes notwithstanding. Do you?

[Goatnapper'96]

I mean if it's a powerful explosion and it's going off in a crowded civilian area that changes the context a little don't you think?

There are 2700 casualties and like 3-7 deaths.

It was 2000+ personal pagesr that blew up.

We can assume that the preponderance blew up in reasonably crowded areas.

How big to do you think the 2000+ explosions were individually?

[Goatnapper'96]

Yes. I hope they continue to use restraint.

Look, this story is 2 days old. We have no details. I'm interested in finding them out. I think most reasonable people would want to understand more about the scope of this attack, as well as how successful or unsuccessful it was. And, understanding more about the collateral damage. I sure as hell don't know these details, Omaha's hopes notwithstanding. Do you?

There are videos, or at least there were, of a few of the pagers exploding. I am assuming that that level of explosion is what was experienced for all of them. I think I read where the shipment was somewhere between 2000-3000 pagers. We know not all exploded so I am assuming it was 2000+-3000 explosions. The reported casualties seem to align with the type of explosion that in almost every case the only person hurt was the combatant.

Is there something in my logic you don't like?

[Northwestcoug]

There are 2700 casualties and like 3-7 deaths.

It was 2000+ personal pagesr that blew up.

We can assume that the preponderance blew up in reasonably crowded areas.

How big to do you think the 2000+ explosions were individually?

I didn't know the amount of pagers. If the casualty estimate coincides with the amount of pagers, then that clears up some things for me. I would still like to know how targeted those pagers were; i.e. known terrorists or a larger umbrella of suspected individuals.

There are videos, or at least there were, of a few of the pagers exploding. I am assuming that that level of explosion is what was experienced for all of them. I think I read where the shipment was somewhere between 2000-3000 pagers. We know not all exploded so I am assuming it was 2000+-3000 explosions. The reported casualties seem to align with the type of explosion that in almost every case the only person hurt was the combatant.

Is there something in my logic you don't like?

Nope. If the pager estimate is correct, and if the videos are indicative of all the attacks, then your logic appears sound. I would just say that the story is still very young. It would behoove all of us to wait a little before passing whatever judgment there's to be had.

[Pelado]

would just say that the story is still very young. It would behoove all of us to wait a little before passing whatever judgment there's to be had.

Sorry but no. I'm legally required to pass judgment before obtaining facts.

[Maximus]

Does this mean war is inevitable. Any agreement chance dies especially now he's replacing the defensive minister pushing for it .

[frank ryan]

Does this mean war is inevitable. Any agreement chance dies especially now he's replacing the defensive minister pushing for it .

He seems set on it.

[BigFatMeanie]

I didn't know the amount of pagers. If the casualty estimate coincides with the amount of pagers, then that clears up some things for me. I would still like to know how targeted those pagers were; i.e. known terrorists or a larger umbrella of suspected individuals.



Nope. If the pager estimate is correct, and if the videos are indicative of all the attacks, then your logic appears sound. I would just say that the story is still very young. It would behoove all of us to wait a little before passing whatever judgment there's to be had.

Just curious if you think enough time has elapsed, and enough information has come out in reliable news sources such as the NYT, WSJ, Reuters, etc., that we (and you) can now pass judgment?

There have been a very small number of non-Hezbollah casualties including, sadly, children. But with all the information we currently have, the number of non-Hezbollah casualties appears to be less than 50. The number of children among those casualties is less than the number of Druze kids that were killed on the soccer field by Hezbollah rockets - if that kind of tit-for-tat calculus drives your sense of morality.

The number of Hezbollah casualties after the pagers and walkie-talkies is well over 3K at this point - pushing 4K. Let's be conservative and just use 3K for the Hezbollah casualties and 50 non-Hezbollah. That gives a rate of collateral damage rate of 1.6%

I'll go ahead and pass judgment and say that this is one of the most precise and successful and restrained anti-terrorism or wartime operations in human history. What are your thoughts?

[Maximus]

https://archive.ph/PZKZ

Although many of the 32 known dead and thousands wounded were members of Hezbollah, they were caught not in combat but mingling at fruit stands. Some belonged to civilian parts of Hezbollah's social services. At least four children are among the dead so far.
Before the fresh wave of explosions on Wednesday, the carnage on Tuesday looked like a scene of hand-held land mines. The latter have been banned; mass pager bombs should be too, and the actions may well already violate international humanitarian law. Israelis know more than most how bombs in public places terrorize everyone, not just those who are physically wounded. The footage from Lebanon is too horrible to watch, but Israelis are the ones who most need to see it.
Israelis should be – first of all – morally repulsed. Then they should at least be asking themselves: what has this accomplished, and what will be the costs?
On the upside, fanatic militarists will say Israel is finally fighting back against Hezbollah for opening a northern front and making Israel's border regions unlivable. But that's a fleeting thought: it was clear almost from the start that this is no strategic game-changer – even before a New York Times headline declared the attack to be "a tactical success without a strategic plan "

After all, the biggest threat from Hezbollah is its formidable firepower – the legendary 150,000 to 200,000 rockets and missiles with long-range capacity. Haaretz's Amos Harel reported Wednesday that Hezbollah's operational and command units are significantly damaged, but the hardware is still there.
The escalation makes the so-far barren diplomatic track led by the Senior Advisor to the U.S. President Amos Hochstein look officially dead. In hindsight, warning signs that Israel had lost patience with this track were there. On Monday, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told Hochstein pointedly that only military force would achieve Israel's aim in the north – an unmistakable shift compared to 11 months of the position that Israel would give diplomacy a chance and resort to military escalation only if it failed

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[Bo Diddley]

I'll go ahead and pass judgment and say that this is one of the most precise and successful and restrained anti-terrorism or wartime operations in human history. What are your thoughts?

Ha. So good of them not to load up civilians pagers with explosives as well.

[beefytee]

It is interesting that this was an "anti-terrorist" event in very much a fight fire with fire kind of way.

Yes, it damaged their logistic network, but the real side-effect of this is that Hezbollah members will be absolutely paranoid to touch any electronics. Very much instilling terror in these members.

[Northwestcoug]

Just curious if you think enough time has elapsed, and enough information has come out in reliable news sources such as the NYT, WSJ, Reuters, etc., that we (and you) can now pass judgment?

There have been a very small number of non-Hezbollah casualties including, sadly, children. But with all the information we currently have, the number of non-Hezbollah casualties appears to be less than 50. The number of children among those casualties is less than the number of Druze kids that were killed on the soccer field by Hezbollah rockets - if that kind of tit-for-tat calculus drives your sense of morality.

The number of Hezbollah casualties after the pagers and walkie-talkies is well over 3K at this point - pushing 4K. Let's be conservative and just use 3K for the Hezbollah casualties and 50 non-Hezbollah. That gives a rate of collateral damage rate of 1.6%

I'll go ahead and pass judgment and say that this is one of the most precise and successful and restrained anti-terrorism or wartime operations in human history. What are your thoughts?

I would like to know the extent of those targeted. How many of those who got pagers or cell phones from the Israel front company were known combatants or terrorists, and how many were less culpable and caught up in an admittedly terrorist organization. Quite a few Taliban sympathizers were caught up in the war on terror that ultimately weren't guilty of killing or other serious offenses. I'm assuming at least some of those who got pagers were in a similar situation. And I could be very wrong on this, but yeah I still think it's way too soon to know the full story of the casualties.

Lebanon does itself no favors allowing Hezbollah to have political power. Israel has to defend itself from enemies that fight for its destruction. And it's very difficult to judge Israel's war actions outside of a vacuum. It just seems to me that the pager and cell phone operations uncomfortably approaches strategies like land mines.

It's hard to sympathize with Hezbollah when they kill indiscriminately. Do I have a better strategy? No. But I do want to understand more details. If the majority of Hezbollah casualties involve truly bad guys then sure your collateral damage rate of 1.6% would be an amazing operation. But I don't think it's overly critical of Israel to want to know more about who was targeted, etc.