A Funny Thing Happened on the Way To Jerusalem: Gaza/Israel conflict

[frank ryan]

I think there may be a strategic purpose for not killing the supreme leader. Regime change rarely works. Taking out all military and nuclear threats, while leaving a severely weakened regime in place for a home front uprising would be the ideal course for regime change. But I'm still not convinced this is the end for the mullahs.

It is also a great rallying cry for Muslims, even moderate ones to coalesce around

[SteelBlue]

Well, hey at least a weekend talk show host with an alcohol problem who very recently quit drinking (but probably didn't) is in charge of the military in this extraordinarily dangerous time.

[Green Monstah]

As the dad of a healthy 17-year old kid, the prospect of world war is frightening.

[Maximus]

well be glad irans only real allies are occupied. China certainly doesnt care. Iran probably cant do much if they wanted anymore.

[Green Monstah]

well be glad irans only real allies are occupied. China certainly doesnt care. Iran probably cant do much if they wanted anymore.

Yeah. Here's my fear-mongering scenario.

Pakistan gets pissed and does something stupid, and that starts a chain reaction.

Fortunately, I think that everyone realizes the end-game for nuclear war.

[Omaha 680]

Yeah. Here's my fear-mongering scenario.

Pakistan gets pissed and does something stupid, and that starts a chain reaction.

Fortunately, I think that everyone realizes the end-game for nuclear war.

This assumes Pakistan gives AF about Iran. The reality is the happiest people in the world at Israel's move is other Islamic regional powers. With Assad gone and Hezbollah's capability severely degraded, there are no states left that want to see the Iranian regime survive.

[frank ryan]

I worry about Iran retaliating on American soft targets.

[falafel]

I worry about Iran retaliating on American soft targets.

Such as? What American soft targets are within Iran's reach? Not being difficult, I simply don't know.

[falafel]

Yeah. Here's my fear-mongering scenario.

Pakistan gets pissed and does something stupid, and that starts a chain reaction.

Fortunately, I think that everyone realizes the end-game for nuclear war.

Pakistan is no great friend of Iran. I think they only recently restored diplomatic ties. Hopefully they don't get upset too easily.

[frank ryan]

Such as? What American soft targets are within Iran's reach? Not being difficult, I simply don't know.

I think they might do something with a soft, high casualty inflicting response, something symbolic or economically impactful.

They could do something as simple as attack some schools, or encourage terrorist proxies to do that.

You have to consider Iran has probably spend a lot attention and planning for this scenario. They view Israel, and by extension the US as their primary existential threat.

I think a likely event would be Iran fucking with ships in the Straight of Hormuz. That could also shut down massive economic flows and hurt us massively.

Iran has a history of carrying bombings overseas and have large populations of expats in the Americas. They sourced and trained others in deploying most of the IEDs that killed our troops in Iraq.


Even though they funds and weapons to various group like Hamas, they also gatekeep what weapons they are given. All gloves might off now.

They bffs with Pakistan, but China and Russia, in particular have a lot of influence. China might need think it's a great time to finally strike Taiwan.


They are pretty adept with drones.

I also worry about our capacity to detect their actions.

Right now goodwill for the Americans is lacking around the world, particularly in Muslim states and I'd assume our intelligence capabilities are lacking due to partner nations not trusting us.

Hegseth and Tulsi aren't exactly capable, or ethical.

[chrisrenrut]

I can’t vouch for the source, but I found this interesting

Embedded Tweet

[happyone]

I think they might do something with a soft, high casualty inflicting response, something symbolic or economically impactful.

They could do something as simple as attack some schools, or encourage terrorist proxies to do that.

You have to consider Iran has probably spend a lot attention and planning for this scenario. They view Israel, and by extension the US as their primary existential threat.

I think a likely event would be Iran fucking with ships in the Straight of Hormuz. That could also shut down massive economic flows and hurt us massively.

Iran has a history of carrying bombings overseas and have large populations of expats in the Americas. They sourced and trained others in deploying most of the IEDs that killed our troops in Iraq.


Even though they funds and weapons to various group like Hamas, they also gatekeep what weapons they are given. All gloves might off now.

They bffs with Pakistan, but China and Russia, in particular have a lot of influence. China might need think it's a great time to finally strike Taiwan.


They are pretty adept with drones.

I also worry about our capacity to detect their actions.

Right now goodwill for the Americans is lacking around the world, particularly in Muslim states and I'd assume our intelligence capabilities are lacking due to partner nations not trusting us.

Hegseth and Tulsi aren't exactly capable, or ethical.

We also have a lot of military personal in the region - always tempting targets

[frank ryan]

We also have a lot of military personal in the region - always tempting targets

Iran also has more allies than say, North Korea. If the worst came about, I'm doubtful NATO would respond and enact Article 5, like they did with Afghanistan. Turkey, alone, could stop that from happening and with heroic Trump constantly bullying previously loyal allies like Denmark and Canada, and shit-talking the alliance, I suspect it becoming more and more unlikely.

[Omaha 680]

Iran also has more allies than say, North Korea. If the worst came about, I'm doubtful NATO would respond and enact Article 5, like they did with Afghanistan. Turkey, alone, could stop that from happening and with heroic Trump constantly bullying previously loyal allies like Denmark and Canada, and shit-talking the alliance, I suspect it becoming more and more unlikely.

I agree with everything you have said about Trump. His bumbling and arrogance on the world stage with our allies has made this moment more fraught. But if all gloves truly come off as you noted in your prior post, the Ayatollahs have a lot more to lose including their regime and their lives. But maybe they are just insane enough to lash out directly at the US in the various ways you noted.

[Maximus]

Iran also has more allies than say, North Korea. If the worst came about, I'm doubtful NATO would respond and enact Article 5, like they did with Afghanistan. Turkey, alone, could stop that from happening and with heroic Trump constantly bullying previously loyal allies like Denmark and Canada, and shit-talking the alliance, I suspect it becoming more and more unlikely.

Hmm who? I think the entire middle east would be thrilled if iran suffered regime change

Russia would be mad but lol

China meh