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2024 Presidential Election Thread

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  • Originally posted by Bo Diddley View Post

    Great observation. I think you're right.
    As if Trump is really capable of making a centrist decision. Not his brand.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Uncle Ted View Post
      Yeah, looks like Harris is the right pick by the Dems... Florida is now looking solid red.

      That's some really fast polling results.

      Wait, it's actually not fast and it's actually also not what you or the tweet are representing it to be. If you read the the second paragraph of the article It's a poll that collected the data before Biden dropped out. Maybe interesting but hard to take much from a poll asking what wss a hypothetical question at the time.

      The FOX 13 Tampa/Insider Advantage poll was conducted July 15-16, after the attempt on Trump’s life but before Biden dropped out. It found Trump at 49% support to Harris’ 39% in a two-way race.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by SeattleUte View Post
        Now the Vance pick looks bad. Trump and Vance's appeal is too narrow. Trump needed a centrist and a less angry, crazy convention speech.

        They overplayed their hand.

        I wonder if it was at all strategic to wait until after the Republican Convention and Trump picking a VP for this to happen.

        Since Biden waited so long, this worked out to wait another week.

        Trump might have picked a different VP and given a different speech.

        Imagine an alternate universe where Trump stops after the first 30 minutes of his speech and picks a centrist as vice president. Possibly a different race.
        This theory would be true if not for Trump's nature. Trump chose Vance because he said that Pence was wrong to certify the election, and if given the choice, Vance would do what Trump wants. Trump chooses all things based on how it helps him personally. Also, he very well could have given a different speech. When ones style is classic old man rambling does it really matter if you change it up--even a little?

        I prefer more rational theories, like the one that shows that the democrats are doing well by looking at TNs post count.


        Comment


        • Originally posted by SeattleUte View Post
          Now the Vance pick looks bad. Trump and Vance's appeal is too narrow. Trump needed a centrist and a less angry, crazy convention speech.

          They overplayed their hand.

          I wonder if it was at all strategic to wait until after the Republican Convention and Trump picking a VP for this to happen.

          Since Biden waited so long, this worked out to wait another week.

          Trump might have picked a different VP and given a different speech.

          Imagine an alternate universe where Trump stops after the first 30 minutes of his speech and picks a centrist as vice president. Possibly a different race.
          Do the conventions matter? I watched zero minutes of the RNC and I'm a regular voter, not just in presidential years. I don't think the length or content of his speech will have any bearing on the outcome of the election.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by originalsocal View Post

            This theory would be true if not for Trump's nature. Trump chose Vance because he said that Pence was wrong to certify the election, and if given the choice, Vance would do what Trump wants. Trump chooses all things based on how it helps him personally. Also, he very well could have given a different speech. When ones style is classic old man rambling does it really matter if you change it up--even a little?

            I prefer more rational theories, like the one that shows that the democrats are doing well by looking at TNs post count.

            You're Applying some occam's razor here. I'm sure SU can appreciate that.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by BlueK View Post

              That's some really fast polling results.

              Wait, it's actually not fast and it's actually also not what you or the tweet are representing it to be. If you read the the second paragraph of the article It's a poll that collected the data before Biden dropped out. Maybe interesting but hard to take much from a poll asking what wss a hypothetical question at the time.

              The FOX 13 Tampa/Insider Advantage poll was conducted July 15-16, after the attempt on Trump’s life but before Biden dropped out. It found Trump at 49% support to Harris’ 39% in a two-way race.
              electionbettingodds.com is showing it isn't even close in Florida... Trump is 92.5% likely to win there.

              Bet.png


              electionbettingodds.com is usually very accurate but has been wrong. They incorrectly predicted Trump winning in 2016, for example.

              They are also predicting that the GOP'ers have a good chance of taking control of the senate (by 4 seats) but a slight chance of losing control of the house.


              Edit: Holy Cow... Given the projection that the BBC is making the Dems will need to do another coup at the DNC convention...

              "If there is one thing I am, it's always right." -Ted Nugent.
              "I honestly believe saying someone is a smart lawyer is damning with faint praise. The smartest people become engineers and scientists." -SU.
              "Yet I still see wisdom in that which Uncle Ted posts." -creek.
              GIVE 'EM HELL, BRIGHAM!

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Uncle Ted View Post

                electionbettingodds.com is showing it isn't even close in Florida... Trump is 92.5% likely to win there.

                Bet.png


                electionbettingodds.com is usually very accurate but has been wrong. They incorrectly predicted Trump winning in 2016, for example.

                They are also predicting that the GOP'ers have a good chance of taking control of the senate (by 4 seats) but a slight chance of losing control of the house.


                Edit: Holy Cow... Given the projection that the BBC is making the Dems will need to do another coup at the DNC convention...

                Good thing this is locked in stone because Amerika really needs Trump.

                Also Extremely impressive to have such great data in only 24 freakin hours!

                Comment


                • Give 'em Hell, Cougars!!!

                  For all this His anger is not turned away, but His hand is stretched out still.

                  Not long ago an obituary appeared in the Salt Lake Tribune that said the recently departed had "died doing what he enjoyed most—watching BYU lose."

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by myboynoah View Post
                    What the hell? Racial component?

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by BlueK View Post

                      What the hell? Racial component?
                      A very exotic temptation for men.
                      Give 'em Hell, Cougars!!!

                      For all this His anger is not turned away, but His hand is stretched out still.

                      Not long ago an obituary appeared in the Salt Lake Tribune that said the recently departed had "died doing what he enjoyed most—watching BYU lose."

                      Comment


                      • Give 'em Hell, Cougars!!!

                        For all this His anger is not turned away, but His hand is stretched out still.

                        Not long ago an obituary appeared in the Salt Lake Tribune that said the recently departed had "died doing what he enjoyed most—watching BYU lose."

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by myboynoah View Post
                          He knows how to speak to the MTG element. Hugely important voting bloc.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Uncle Ted View Post
                            Yeah, looks like Harris is the right pick by the Dems... Florida is now looking solid red.

                            That poll pre-dates Joe's announcement so its irrelevant. The results might be "new", but the data is stale.
                            Ain't it like most people, I'm no different. We love to talk on things we don't know about.

                            Dig your own grave, and save!

                            "The only one of us who is so significant that Jeff owes us something simply because he decided to grace us with his presence is falafel." -- All-American

                            "I know that you are one of the cool and 'edgy' BYU fans" -- Wally

                            GIVE 'EM HELL, BRIGHAM!

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by myboynoah View Post
                              LOL... “childless cat lady” is now trending on X.



                              Does she know she is choking her cat and it looks pissed?
                              "If there is one thing I am, it's always right." -Ted Nugent.
                              "I honestly believe saying someone is a smart lawyer is damning with faint praise. The smartest people become engineers and scientists." -SU.
                              "Yet I still see wisdom in that which Uncle Ted posts." -creek.
                              GIVE 'EM HELL, BRIGHAM!

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by BlueK View Post

                                Good thing this is locked in stone because Amerika really needs Trump.

                                Also Extremely impressive to have such great data in only 24 freakin hours!
                                They started collecting this data when people really started paying attention to Biden's decline. Similar polls have been out for a month or so.

                                Comment

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