2024 Presidential Election Thread

[Moliere]

Holy crap, Joe is taking advice from a convicted felon? And I’m supposed to want to vote for him? Maybe he should talk to Paul Krugman or Jon Favreau…

[Uncle Ted]

Holy crap, Joe is taking advice from a convicted felon? And I’m supposed to want to vote for him? Maybe he should talk to Paul Krugman or Jon Favreau…

Stop it... Grandpa Joe loves his son. His son just had a rough patch in life and you are making him feel bad with publicly calling him names like "convicted felon".

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And his son loves his father and never forgets "10% for the big guy".

[Uncle Ted]

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[YOhio]

This is an interesting interview with Allan Lichtman. Definitely a deviation from current conventional wisdom.

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[frank ryan]

Stop it... Grandpa Joe loves his son. His son just had a rough patch in life and you are making him feel bad with publicly calling him names like "convicted felon".

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And his son loves his father and never forgets "10% for the big guy".

Ted, it's almost like you're giddy about Biden's suffering. I don't expect you to have loads of Christian empathy but your focusing on Hunter's addiction isn't good for the soul.

As someone who has been impacted directly by the horrors of substance abuse and has spent quite awhile working with this population, I find it a bit offensive.

[Uncle Ted]

Ted, it's almost like you're giddy about Biden's suffering. I don't expect you to have loads of Christian empathy but your focusing on Hunter's addiction isn't good for the soul.

As someone who has been impacted directly by the horrors of substance abuse and has spent quite awhile working with this population, I find it a bit offensive.

Why do you always pick on me? Molie is the one doing the name calling.

I feel bad for Hunter... His father is dragging him into the public light when he could have just gone gentle into that good night. It sucks for poor Hunter to be the son of Grandpa Joe.

[Omaha 680]

This is an interesting interview with Allan Lichtman. Definitely a deviation from current conventional wisdom.

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I read an article about that this morning. Using his historical "keys" to predict the winner seems like a great system given his track record.

The system includes four factors based on politics, seven on performance, and two on candidate personality. Lichtman said the incumbent party would need to lose six of those actors, or “keys,” to lose the White House.

However my guess is his two factors based on personality don't accurately weight, if they account for at all, the unprecedented situation the electorate is in with Joe Biden after the most recent debate. Not to mention the crazy that trump brings to the table.

[Uncle Ted]

This explains why Grandpa Joe did so bad in the debate... It was way past his bedtime!

New details emerge about Biden’s mental state — and the steps staffers take to shield the ‘10am to 4pm president’

More questions about President Biden’s cognitive state are emerging as a new poll showed a jaw-dropping 72% of registered voters do not believe he is mentally fit for the job.

While many Democrats were left flabbergasted and sent into a tailspin by Biden’s debate debacle last week, the 81-year-old president’s cognitive slips have been nothing new to his inner circle.

White House aides have been meticulously working behind the scenes throughout his presidency to minimize his exposure to situations where his cognitive slip-ups could flare up in public and to adapt the day-to-day of the presidency to the needs of an octogenarian.

The commander-in-chief is seen as prone to absent-minded gaffes and fatigue outside of six hours a day — between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m. — and while traveling abroad, Axios said in a new report.
[...]

https://nypost.com/2024/06/30/us-new...-to-hide-them/

[Jeff Lebowski]

I read an article about that this morning. Using his historical "keys" to predict the winner seems like a great system given his track record.

However my guess is his two factors based on personality don't accurately weight, if they account for at all, the unprecedented situation the electorate is in with Joe Biden after the most recent debate. Not to mention the crazy that trump brings to the table.

As an engineer, the idea of a model like this guy uses is very intriguing to me. But the problem with models is that they are conditioned and trained on past events so to the extent that what we encounter in an election mirrors prior elections, they should do pretty well. But we are in completely uncharted waters here so you can throw that model in the trash. To pretend otherwise is absurd.

[Goatnapper'96]

As an engineer, the idea of a model like this guy uses is very intriguing to me. But the problem with models is that they are conditioned and trained on past events so to the extent that what we encounter in an election mirrors prior elections, they should do pretty well. But we are in completely uncharted waters here so you can throw that model in the trash. To pretend otherwise is absurd.

Despite Trump leading in polls and being the frontrunner I always was expecting Biden to win. The fundamentals are very good to him and Trump is as bad as his critics make him out to be. However, the debate absolutely blew up the entire branding of Biden's campaign. I used to think the worst pull out since "Knocked Up" would be the memorial brand for Biden-but for a campaign to make Donald Trump's dishonesty it's penultimate rallying cry and then be exposed for lying about the mental fitness of their candidate just cannot be undone. This is yuuuuuuuge!

Let me say the issues with Biden ought not to have been surprising. But for many in the electorate wanting to have a reason to vote against Trump this really forced reality right in their face in an undeniable way. Joe Biden should not be President under any circumstances-and to many even running against Donald Trump won't be a good enough reason.

[Uncle Ted]

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I wonder why Trump, other than having his own social media platform that made him a billionaire again, hasn't come back to twitter/X.

[Moliere]

Why do you always pick on me? Molie is the one doing the name calling.

I feel bad for Hunter... His father is dragging him into the public light when he could have just gone gentle into that good night. It sucks for poor Hunter to be the son of Grandpa Joe.

I didn’t call Hunter any names other than a felon, which is true. The fact Joe is taking any advice from Hunter is pretty damning and adds another disqualifying notch to the unfit to serve belt. Hunter clearly has his own interests in mind when he’s telling his dad to stay in the race.

[Moliere]

As an engineer, the idea of a model like this guy uses is very intriguing to me. But the problem with models is that they are conditioned and trained on past events so to the extent that what we encounter in an election mirrors prior elections, they should do pretty well. But we are in completely uncharted waters here so you can throw that model in the trash. To pretend otherwise is absurd.

Yep, models are great for trying to forecast events, but most models have thousands or tens of thousands of instances to learn from. This one has a handful.

[Uncle Ted]

I didn’t call Hunter any names other than a felon, which is true. The fact Joe is taking any advice from Hunter is pretty damning and adds another disqualifying notch to the unfit to serve belt. Hunter clearly has his own interests in mind when he’s telling his dad to stay in the race.

But Hunter is 'the smartest guy [that Grandpa Joe] knows' ... Are you expecting the president to get advice from some dummy?

[BlueK]

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I wonder why Trump, other than having his own social media platform that made him a billionaire again, hasn't come back to twitter/X.

Good question. It's not like Musk would call out any of Trump's lies.