2024 Presidential Election Thread

[LVAllen]

Deseret News poll shows that Republicans want Trump to pick DeSantis as his VP running mate. Heaven help us.

Sigh. You'd think that for all the talk of Muh Constitushun, SOMEONE at the Deseret News would be familiar enough with the Constitution to say, "Hey, remember that thing in the 12th Amendment that stops a President and VP from being from the same state? Should that have any bearing on a poll in which we ask people if two people from the same state should be on the same Presidential ticket? Maybe we should, I don't know, mention it in the article? No? Okay."

[Bo Diddley]

You specifically said:



I was wondering what your reasoning was. I guess you weren't really making a point. Carry on.

Yeah, I said some polls. Like that NYT poll, which is what I was responding to in the first place. Some crazy results of that poll.

I view polls skeptically. In my head, I sharpshoot the wording of their questions. I often look at their methods to try to understand the greater context of the results. Yes, when political polls show a consistent result, I attribute greater credibility. I also think through what might be affecting the political winds. For example, there's obviously a huge level of dissatisfaction with having the Dems run Biden as their candidate. He's too old and frail. Does that continue to give Trump the advantage he now appears to have, or when push comes to shove, will people plug their nose and vote for Biden?

But you're right--and this really shouldn't be surprising--I really don't have much of a point. Carry on.

[beefytee]

Sigh. You'd think that for all the talk of Muh Constitushun, SOMEONE at the Deseret News would be familiar enough with the Constitution to say, "Hey, remember that thing in the 12th Amendment that stops a President and VP from being from the same state? Should that have any bearing on a poll in which we ask people if two people from the same state should be on the same Presidential ticket? Maybe we should, I don't know, mention it in the article? No? Okay."

The easy answer is that Trump moves his registration back to NY. Of course, Trump being Trump, that wouldn't happen, and he would make DeSantis move out of state.

I remember that Dick Cheney had to move his registration back to WY, when Bush picked him for VP and they both lived in TX.

[Maximus]

trump will pick someone who bootlicked more than ron.

Im betting SD gov or the ny shrill congresswoman

[falafel]

Maximus will love this: Elon is one of a number of potential big money donors that have visited Mar a Lago this past week.

[BlueK]

Blah blah blah, polls aren't perfect. Sure. But they have been remarkably consistent lately.

I think what is going on here is that people are prone to discount the recent polling because the results are uncomfortable. Yes, the polls were consistently skewed in 2016, but let's remember that Trump ended up doing better than the polls were showing. Not worse.

2018, 2020, 2022 they all overstated the maga vote. Have they fixed the model? Maybe, but skepticism is not automatically without any merit.

[Maximus]

oh goodness. elon will endorse wont he

[LVAllen]

The easy answer is that Trump moves his registration back to NY. Of course, Trump being Trump, that wouldn't happen, and he would make DeSantis move out of state.

I remember that Dick Cheney had to move his registration back to WY, when Bush picked him for VP and they both lived in TX.

Yeah, and a lawsuit was filed about that. It eventually went up to the Fifth Circuit, where they determined he had both a physical presence in Wyoming (he had a house in Jackson Hole, which, if you talk to Wyomingans, only kind of sort of counts as Wyoming) and an intent to reside there. It wasn't as a simple as Trump/DeSantis just announcing that he was now not a resident of Florida.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Alright folks. I decided I was being a huge baby so here I am sitting at the caucus. Submitted my vote against trump. I peeked in the ballot box and saw mostly Haley votes. Only three MAGA hats in the audience. So far so good.

[Bo Diddley]

Alright folks. I decided I was being a huge baby so here I am sitting at the caucus. Submitted my vote against trump. I peeked in the ballot box and saw mostly Haley votes. Only three MAGA hats in the audience. So far so good.

[Pelado]

Way to represent, Dude.

[Omaha 680]

Blah blah blah, polls aren't perfect. Sure. But they have been remarkably consistent lately.

I think what is going on here is that people are prone to discount the recent polling because the results are uncomfortable. Yes, the polls were consistently skewed in 2016, but let's remember that Trump ended up doing better than the polls were showing. Not worse.

Yes. This is what people don't remember: Trump out performed the polling in both elections. He is poison to his party in that they do worse overall with him at the head and most people he endorses lose. But he himself does better than the predictions. If he enters November with a 2 point lead we are screwed. He only needs to be 2-3 points down to have a clear path in the EC.

[Shaka]

I cast mine for Haley.

This election will be a referendum on Biden. The polls are reflecting this.

[beefytee]

Home from the caucus. I kept quiet, but was the only one who raised his hand not to have a separate vote for each position. Apparently everyone else was fine being there all night. Luckily the only position we actually voted for was precinct chair and the numbers ended up lining up for the rest to be voted in by acclamation, so my belly aching was unwarranted

[Pelado]

Home from the caucus. I kept quiet, but was the only one who raised his hand not to have a separate vote for each position. Apparently everyone else was fine being there all night. Luckily the only position we actually voted for was precinct chair and the numbers ended up lining up for the rest to be voted in by acclamation, so my belly aching was unwarranted

And this means...?