2024 Presidential Election Thread

[Bo Diddley]

The way it seems to me is Biden is facing very steep odds in AZ, NV, NC and Georgia. If the polls are accurate those 4 appear close to insurmountable at this point in time. But Trump needs one more out of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. When the dust settles I am skeptical Trump will one of those.

Thanks. That's a great perspective, and somewhat encouraging.

[Goatnapper'96]

Thanks. That's a great perspective, and somewhat encouraging.

I can't see the polls getting any worse for Biden from here until November. Neither he nor Trump, or anyone else unless there are some fundamental changes, will ever be liked or popular, but I just can't fathom things getting worse for Biden than they are now-especially as it becomes a choice between him or Trump.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Why limit it to one more time?

Because I want her to get discouraged and leave politics.

[Northwestcoug]

Because I want her to get discouraged and leave politics.

Too late. She has found her grift. She will continue to be a talking head on the crazier conservative stations and will most definitely run again. Hopefully not as an incumbent.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Polls taken months before an election have not been good predictors of what had actually happened at the ballot box in any election since what, 2014? I am also frustrated the dems can't figure it out that Biden is the only reason a nutjob dangerous Trump is even in the game. But a lot can and still will happen before November. And sampling for political polls does suck. Im not talking out of my butt on that one. It is closely aligned with what I do professionally , but whatever.

The fact that polls have a margin of error does not mean that they are useless or that we should discount them. I was listening to "Pod Save America" yesterday which is hosted by some democratic party wonks and the recent polls came up and the host said, "When these disturbing polls results come out for Biden the first reaction for many people is to argue how polls are biased and unreliable. But that is the wrong response. As imperfect as they are, you cannot discount polls, so the proper response is to ask, 'What could be driving these results, and what can we learn from the results to alter our campaign and messaging?"

Polls are like models: they are all wrong but they are still useful.

[fusnik]

Hey, haven't you heard? Polls are inaccurate!

Wasn't it you, like two weeks ago, saying that Bidenmentum was happening and the polls were shifting to Biden and that Trump was going to get crushed? And to prove that was quoting national polls?

LOL.

[Commando]

All politics are local.

Except Presidential elections.

Well leave it to Trump to pick a personal fight with John McCain and alienate just enough republicans to turn the state blue.

[Commando]

Please, please, please let Kari Lake lose one more time.

Kirsten Synema dropping out really helps Ruben Gallego-- a marine vet who was already winning the three-way race. I thought Sinema would have split Lake's voters more than Gallego's but I guess I was wrong... turns out he's fairly heavily favored over the nutjob.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Wasn't it you, like two weeks ago, saying that Bidenmentum was happening and the polls were shifting to Biden and that Trump was going to get crushed? And to prove that was quoting national polls?

LOL.

Yeah, I was wrong. Biden seems to be in big trouble.

[BigPiney]

If you want to believe polls, Synema dropping out pushes Lake down from 4 points behind the dem candidate to 10 points behind him.

Good for her for recognizing the greater good.

[Commando]

Good for her for recognizing the greater good.

She got her money. And by going Independent she was just going to hemorrhage votes on either side of her and was never going to win.

[Maximus]

This was decent

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Lol at this reply

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[Jeff Lebowski]

Very declasse and trump-like for Biden to go so aggressively after SCOTUS to their faces.

And apparently he and his handlers decided that shouting loudly makes him seem younger and more vigorous. It doesn't.

[USUC]

Very declasse and trump-like for Biden to go so aggressively after SCOTUS to their faces.

And apparently he and his handlers decided that shouting loudly makes him seem younger and more vigorous. It doesn't.

It was very much a campaign speech, not a SOTU address. Didn't help or hurt him. That GOP rebuttal was brutal though. I felt uncomfortable with whatever speech affect she was going with.

[Shaka]

That was awful. He came across as an angry old man and gave a stump speech instead of a SOTU. I kept wondering if they purposely gave him the advice (and possibly some stimulants) to act pissed off for the whole speech so that he would drop in the polls. Then he could be forced to drop out. It will be interesting to see if he gets a bump in the polls.