Wah-hoo-wah! BYU @ Virginia

[badutahboy]

A statistician would tell you there's not enough data to tell if there's really much of a trend, especially if you toss the 2010 data point which is a clear outlier. But data's always dirty and I'll give you that it appears there seems to be a trend.

Let's throw out possible theories:
--BYU moving to independence
--BYU's poor seasons lately
--Utah moving to Pac 12
--other (I'm sure we could think of several more)

Intuitively, I just don't feel like BYU's move to independence has anything at all to do with it. The kind of recruits that are going to get you ranked in the top 20 or top 30 don't give a shiz about winning a MWC championship.

Even if you can show a trend, you are not showing causality. And you don't even have any anecdotal evidence. And most people would say if anything, independence would be slightly more attractive to potential recruits than the MWC. It just doesn't make any sense.

Finally, a post that isn't idiotic and merely rhetoric. Thanks for investing some thought into your response.

As for your 4 theories, let's explore them:

-- BYU's move to independence --
This one has been beaten to death. I don't think we need to argue the merits of how independence might hurt recruiting.

-- BYU's poor recent history --
BYU was coming off the worst 4 year stretch in recent history when Bronco took over in 2005. 5 years if you include 05's 6-6 finish. Yet they still finished with a 53 ranking in Bronco's first recruiting class (and 55 in 04, in case you want to argue recruits being optimistic about a new coach).

-- Utah's move to the P12 --

This one is obviously going to impact BYU's recruiting over time. However, I don't buy that it had an immediate impact that dropped BYU 10+ spots in the national polls, especially when you consider Utah's struggles in the PAC.

--other --
The only other credible one I can come up with is that the low morale of the team is apparent to recruits. This one is totally plausible, and could account for a significant portion of the drop in recruiting. However, I then have to question how much of the dropping morale is related to independence and it's flaws (2 for 1's, lack of ongoing secondary rivalries among conference members, 5 games against utter nobodies, etc)


Oh, I just thought of one more credible one... Independence robs the school of a regular recruiting boundary. Outside of Utah and Boise, there's NOWHERE that BYU can mine recruits from and guarantee games for those recruits to have family members visit. No longer do they visit San Diego, New Mexico, Fort Collins, Colorado Springs, etc every other year. There's a reason why most teams recruit primarily from within their own conference's boundaries, and BYU has eliminated those benefits. BYU willfully slashed their meaningful recruiting footprint by going independent.


As for your last post, WHY would most people say Independence is slightly more attractive than the MWC? BYU now has less chance at a BCS appearance (inboth the current and future system), one single bowl that they're locked into from the moment they take their first loss, very few consistent opponents, numerous garbage opponents (try and tell me anyone in the MWC equals playing Idaho State repeatedly), etc. Sure, via Independence you've had 1-2 great opponents and 3-4 good opponents each season, but how is that significantly different from what you had in the MWC?





I'd love to hear more from you. I'm certainly not making the claim that independence is the sole factor in BYU's recent slip in recruiting, but I do think it's a notable contributor, even if it's in indirect ways, like the two mentioned under "other"

[badutahboy]

I follow recruiting as close as anyone. The only player on your list BYU lost was Tanner Shipley. The other 4 were never offered or in play for various reasons. Nice try though. That same year we picked up a non lds kid in Jamal Williams whose final two were BYU and Boise.

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Wrong, Tanner Shipley was the only decommit. The rest were all being significantly recruited by BYU and most had formal offers. I know for a fact that Hawkins Mann made a recruiting trip to BYU, and I'm pretty sure a couple of the others did as well.

Regardless, these are players identified as being recruited by BYU who ultimately chose Boise. It utterly destroys the claims that BYU rarely loses recruiting battles to the likes of Boise.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Even if you can show a trend, you are not showing causality. And you don't even have any anecdotal evidence. And most people would say if anything, independence would be slightly more attractive to potential recruits than the MWC. It just doesn't make any sense.

Whoa, wait a minute. What about Shaka's niece?

[hostile]

Regarding the hurry-up offense it seemed there were several times in the first half (the only half that I watched) that the ref had set the ball but then held up his hand indicating that BYU needed to wait. I couldn't see any reason why the ref had to slow things down. Anyone else notice this? Maybe it wasn't that big of a deal.

[Flystripper]

No, correlation does not indicate causation. however, correlation certainly beats speculation, and that's all you've got to back your claim that recruiting won't suffer in inependence.

You don't read my posts very carefully.

[badutahboy]

how about you investigate the correlation between wins and recruiting class rankings (from an outlet of your choosing)?

I don't need to. Lots of losers continually have good recruiting classes. You guys love to compare BYU to Notre Dame.. I'm pretty sure Notre Dame's recruiting didn't ever fall out of the top 15 in spite of having a decade worth of underperformance.

Want more? How about Pitt, Mississippi State, and Auburn all having a top 25 class despite exceptionally mediocre seasons?

And how about the 2004-2005 rankings i posted for BYU? Or was 2002-2006 not as bad as 2010-2013 has been?

[badutahboy]

You don't read my posts very carefully.

I read your post perfectly carefully. You implied there are other factors at play, and acknowledged that Independence could possibly be a contributor, but with the caveat that not enough time as passed to make that judgement. I'll agree, we can't state conclusively that BYU's recruiting has dropped because of independence. What we can say is that it has dropped with timing remarkably tied to independence, and that they've weathered the other negatives in the past without seeing a similar drop in recruiting.

So no, I can't show causation, but my correlation is a lot closer tie than any of the claims against it.

[Indy Coug]

BYU was the fastest team in the nation, averaging a play every 16.68 seconds. Oregon 2nd fastest at 16.70.

[badutahboy]

BYU was the fastest team in the nation, averaging a play every 16.68 seconds. Oregon 2nd fastest at 16.70.

That's really scary when you consider the difference in results. Granted Oregon was playing Nobody (errr Nichols) State, but still.

[old_gregg]

I don't need to. Lots of losers continually have good recruiting classes. You guys love to compare BYU to Notre Dame.. I'm pretty sure Notre Dame's recruiting didn't fall out of the top 15 in spite of having a decade worth of underperformance.

Want more? How about Pitt, Mississippi State, and Auburn all having a top 25 class despite exceptionally mediocre seasons?

And how about the 2004-2005 rankings i posted for BYU? Or was 2002-2006 not as bad as 2010-2013 has been?

so your argument is that byu pursues highly-ranked (by external sources) players at the expense of lower ranked players, but that those rankings are basically worthless? that also assumes that byu's recruiting board follows national rankings.

[badutahboy]

so your argument is that byu pursues highly-ranked (by external sources) players at the expense of lower ranked players, but that those rankings are basically worthless? that also assumes that byu's recruiting board follows national rankings.

Huh? I made no such claim.

[Jarid in Cedar]

Badwillhunting?

[SCcoug]

How many oline have we lost for injury, transfers, grades ect? Looking at the 2007 class both Famika Anae and Huston Reynolds have had career ending injuries. Bronco canceled the spring game a couple of years for lack of linemen. Remember it takes longer for BYU to recover from losing players.

[ERCougar]

I don't need to. Lots of losers continually have good recruiting classes. You guys love to compare BYU to Notre Dame.. I'm pretty sure Notre Dame's recruiting didn't ever fall out of the top 15 in spite of having a decade worth of underperformance.

What conference is Notre Dame in?

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[lambdacoug]

What conference is Notre Dame in?

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Ours! :rockon: