BYU, do you know the way to San Jose?

[Art Vandelay]

The line opened at BYU -7. It quickly moved to BYU -4, and over the next couple of days settled in at BYU -3 to -3.5. Using reasonable modeling, I would put the expected MOV at between 3 to 7. So I don't think either the opening or current line are likely to be seriously out of whack. Is it possible that the true E(MOV) is something closer to BYU -10*? Sure, it is possible.

*Note, I am talking about the expected MOV here and not realized MOV; this is about center mass of the distribution. Even if the true expected outcome of is BYU -3, 70-75% of the realized outcomes would fall in the range of San Jose St by 11 to BYU by 17. Realized outcomes in football have large standard deviation.

I think a fun thread would be to have posters start the season with a fictional $1,000 bankroll, bet 1-3 games a week (ATS), and see who ends the year with the most $$$. It would be particularly interesting (to me) if pelagenius bet strictly upon his model.

[The_Douger]

I would play that game.

[LiveCoug]

Offense should be fine. SJSU D isn't that great. Our passing D will be in for a test.

[pelagius]

I think a fun thread would be to have posters start the season with a fictional $1,000 bankroll, bet 1-3 games a week (ATS), and see who ends the year with the most $$$. It would be particularly interesting (to me) if pelagenius bet strictly upon his model.

It's is not interesting to me mostly because, one, I haven't ever posted "my model" and two because when I use MOV computer models I am not trying to suggest they are better than the spread (there is nothing unique about MOV computer models whether I do it or Sagarin does it, they are all basically the same ... at least the good ones are and any difference between them is mostly likely noise). Faced with a difference between an a MOV based computer model and the betting line, I will take the betting line every time (betting lines aren't perfect but they are in general our best ex ante measure of expected MOV). Also, when we get towards the end of the season MOV based computer models are usually not that far off from the betting line on average (but there are usually a few significant deviations and in those cases I think it is much more likely that the betting line is closer to the true expect MOV than this class of models).

I like to use MOV computer models for basic benchmarking. They are good at that; So, for example, if I want to do some basic projections about the expected lose distribution for BYU for an upcoming season, they are a good tool.

[PaloAltoCougar]

Weather isn't looking good for this game, so perhaps that'll help BYU. Luckily i'll be dry in PAC's luxury box suite.

Unfortunately, this is Spartan Stadium we're talking about, a venue similar in size and quality to what BYU had when football was played where the Richards Building now sits. Our box, once the home of a Kenmore Washmaster 5000, is currently occupied by a couple of druggies who promise to vacate by kickoff Saturday evening.

[pelagius]

Desnews article about San Jose St:

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/8...rspective.html

2. How big of a game is this for San Jose State? There's a lot of talk around Provo regarding the perception that San Jose State players have targeted this game all season and are very intent on beating BYU. Is this game that much bigger than other games on the schedule and is the perception valid?

"Coach Mike MacIntyre called this game "one of the biggest games in the modern history of San Jose State football." That caught me a little by surprise because, in reality, the Louisiana Tech game stands a chance to be much bigger. If La. Tech beats Utah State on Saturday, SJSU has a chance to earn a share of the WAC title by beating La. Tech the following week. But that comment spoke to how much focus there is on this game.

[The_Douger]

Buckle up.

This kind of feels like the Nevada game in 2003 to me.

[LiveCoug]

This is a huge game for SJSU because they might quadruple their average attendance for this game.

This is an FBS team (with a good record!!!) averaging just over 7,000 a game. Pathetic.

[Indy Coug]

SJSU has a top 30-ish rated defense. The real question is how good is their defense? The next real question is how much has our offense actually improved?

[PaloAltoCougar]

This is a huge game for SJSU because they might quadruple their average attendance for this game.

This is an FBS team (with a good record!!!) averaging just over 7,000 a game. Pathetic.

BYU's local CC chapter has been selling a fair number of tickets in prime locations (high between the 30s) at a decent price. It wouldn't surprise me if BYU fans comprise at least a third of the spectators. The expected rain showers are more likely to deter Spartans than Cougars.

SJSU gave Stanford a very tough game and is ranked 9th in passing offense--not good given our secondary.

[TripletDaddy]

This game is going t.......

[Coach McGuirk]

Buckle up.

This kind of feels like the Nevada game in 2003 to me.

you sure get a lot of feelings.

They're nothing more than feelings.

[LiveCoug]

BYU's local CC chapter has been selling a fair number of tickets in prime locations (high between the 30s) at a decent price. It wouldn't surprise me if BYU fans comprise at least a third of the spectators. The expected rain showers are more likely to deter Spartans than Cougars.

SJSU gave Stanford a very tough game and is ranked 9th in passing offense--not good given our secondary.

I expect a minor bump of SJSU fans from 7,000 to 10,000 and then another 8,000 BYU fans. I bet it's 50/50

[Coach McGuirk]

PS, this game didn't need it's own thread.

[Goatnapper'96]

Buckle up.

This kind of feels like the Nevada game in 2003 to me.

LOL! You try to hard to be the open minded fellow who isn't blinded by loyalty.

BYU did not play Nevada in 2003. You are thinking about 2002.

These are exactly the types of games designed for Mendenhall. BYU is clearly more talented and should be able to win this game by out-executing SJSU. I expect a decisive victory for BYU.