BYU, do you know the way to San Jose?

[BigPiney]

Has anyone here ever really sported blue glasses or blue goggles? My freshman year I had a pair of blue Bolle ski goggles. I have about 4 pairs of goggles now, none of which are blue. My faves are the white ones.

mine are kind of like these :



I haven't watched a game with them though. I will generally wear these or the silver ones.

[pelagius]

Maybe the perception of failure is due to both expectation and potential(which is really just the perception of ability.) BYU had a very good chance to tie and possibly beat BSU and Utah, and had a gimmie TD to beat ND. The only loss that wasn't close was OSU.

Sure, acutely that's fair. BYU could've have had a better season. And coaching mistakes contributed to that. On the other hand, coaching has probably contributed mightily to having a very good defense. Sure, this coach is more likely to hire young coordinators that make mistakes or trust an injured player could rise above an injury. A coach is a portfolio of good and bad things. And Bronco's portfolio of things is overall good.

Additionally, Riley Nelson has been inaccurate, a turnover machine, and his poor play directly led to points for the opponent in all four losses, but most painfully, to more than enough points to cost us the 3 close games.

The offense actually has taken a step back from last year, which is difficult, and there is a lot of frustration.

We can do the Riley thing again if you people want, but let's be clear. Unless, we think that Riley's performance against Boise St and Utah are representative draws from his performance distribution this simply isn't a fair statement. And if people really think they were representative draws, then there is nothing left to talk about. But, let's be fair. They weren't (not saying it wasn't a coaching blunder); Riley could barely walk, and once we account for defense quality Riley hasn't been that bad, the offense hasn't been significantly worse, and Riley has performed pretty close to reasonable ex ante expectations.

I certainly wouldn't argue the statistical performance, but the program has raised expectations and failed to deliver, again.

Every program hypes; but I think we can form rational expectations despite that.

[Indy Coug]

Pelagius, you probably have quicker access to this information, but how many times has BYU faced 5 or more teams that were ranked in the top 25 scoring defense and what records did they have in those seasons?

Current Scoring Defensive Rankings

Notre Dame - 2nd
Utah St. - 6th
Boise St. - 8th
Oregon St. - 22nd
San Jose St. - 25th

[Tone Loc]

I think the frustration lies in the fact that BYU has a defense that is third in the nation in total defense. I repeat, BYU has a defense that is third in the nation in total defense. When was the last time they had a defense nearly that good, with a senior QB?

If somehow we could have figured out a way for our offense to not score for the other team, we beat Utah and BSU.

[pelagius]

How does it look when comparing years BYU had a senior qb? It seems to me that this year is worse than 2009, 2006, 2001, 1996, 1994 and 1991 and likely similar to 1999.

I think what gets so many fans irate is so many predicted this exact scenario.

1996 and 2006 but the others? By good model benchmarking this season is very similar in quality (right now) to 1991, 1994, and 2009. It looks better than 2001 and 1999. There are things people can like about those seasons better. For example, being undefeated against a one of the worst schedules ever until towards the end of the season my bring many great joy. But overall, 2001 was not a higher quality team using reasonable benchmarking.

[pelagius]

Pelagius, you probably have quicker access to this information, but how many times has BYU faced 5 or more teams that were ranked in the top 25 scoring defense and what records did they have in those seasons?

Current Scoring Defensive Rankings

Notre Dame - 2nd
Utah St. - 6th
Boise St. - 8th
Oregon St. - 22nd
San Jose St. - 25th

I don't have quick access to that Indy, but I would be surprised using any reasonable measure of defensive quality (and more sophisticated) if this season wasn't an outlier over this dimension (and mayb e the outlier).

[pelagius]

I think the frustration lies in the fact that BYU has a defense that is third in the nation in total defense. I repeat, BYU has a defense that is third in the nation in total defense. When was the last time they had a defense nearly that good, with a senior QB?.

I agree with this criticism. This is really too bad. QB development looks like a real weakness of Bronco and the coaching staff he created (even though I like Bronco's overall portfolio of coaching ... this is by far the most negative aspect of his portfolio).

[statman]

We're doing this again? 9-4 would be a success (and it is not a matter of being blue goggled ... it's the data.

Given how freakishly good BYU's defense is this year, 9-4 is HORRIBLY disappointing.

BYU is an average NCAA kicker away from an 11-2 season.

Throw in an average NCAA QB, and it's 12-1, with a legitimate shot at 13-0.

(OSU was a 4 pt game with 9 minutes to go. Two borderline PI calls, a decent pass, and an incredibly unlucky bounce for a pick-6 later, and it's an 18 point game with 7 minutes to go.)

[Goatnapper'96]

1996 and 2006 but the others? By good model benchmarking this season is very similar in quality (right now) to 1991, 1994, and 2009. It looks better than 2001 and 1999. There are things people can like about those seasons better. For example, being undefeated against a one of the worst schedules every until towards the end of the season my bring many great joy. But overall, 2001 was not a higher quality team using reasonable benchmarking.

Where do you put this year? I apologize as I haven't followed your model. I would think BYU would be between 30-35 and that was not as good as BYU was in many of those other years. It seems to me this team is in the vicinity of BYU in 1999 and 2001. I thought the 1999 year was disapointing for many reasons, the 2001 not so much. This year is to me because BYU failed to take advantage of a great opportunity.

But I agree with your qualitative assesment of Mendenhall. He is better than much of the stringpullers want to give him credit. However, there is no denying that they choked a great opportunity with this year's defense.

[Indy Coug]

I think the frustration lies in the fact that BYU has a defense that is third in the nation in total defense. I repeat, BYU has a defense that is third in the nation in total defense. When was the last time they had a defense nearly that good, with a senior QB?

BYU had a 5th ranked defense in 1998 and finished 9-5 with a junior QB.

[Art Vandelay]

BYU had a 5th ranked defense in 1998 and finished 9-5 with a junior QB.

I'm assuming that was Rob Morris' Jr year. I seem to recall the defense was better when the Freight Train was a Jr, versus his Sr. year.

I'm also guessing Feterik was the QB, but I'm less confident about that.

[pelagius]

Where do you put this year? I apologize as I haven't followed your model. I would think BYU would be between 30-35 and that was not as good as BYU was in many of those other years. It seems to me this team is in the vicinity of BYU in 1999 and 2001. I thought the 1999 year was disapointing for many reasons, the 2001 not so much. This year is to me because BYU failed to take advantage of a great opportunity.

Not my model; just using a simple MOV computer model. Whether I do it or Sagarin or Massey, it is all basically the same. It provides a reasonable benchmark. Right now BYU is in the 18-28 range. If they win out I imagine they will be in the 15-25 range.

Sure, people can be disappointed about the season; that's a function of expectations and the specifics of some situations (I don't believe I have been arguing against that).

[pelagius]

Given how freakishly good BYU's defense is this year, 9-4 is HORRIBLY disappointing.

I doubt it; primarily because I suspect the things that make Bronco a great defensive coach are correlated with some of the decisions that led to the poor QB development in that last few years.

BYU is an average NCAA kicker away from an 11-2 season.

Sure, BYU has experienced some bad luck here. A severe injury to a kicker that probably would have been average (there may be some coaching blame for not having an adequate backup but there is cost to having an adequate backup).

Throw in an average NCAA QB, and it's 12-1, with a legitimate shot at 13-0.

The board collectively and I hashed this out a lot in the last couple of weeks but I don't think the data obviously support this hypothesis (see the BYU football 2012 thread over the last couple of weeks for the details of my argument). Could be true, but it is far from certain or as obvious as most believe.

(OSU was a 4 pt game with 9 minutes to go. Two borderline PI calls, a decent pass, and an incredibly unlucky bounce for a pick-6 later, and it's an 18 point game with 7 minutes to go.)

Yes, luck matters. I agree, BYU has been a bit unlucky this year

[Indy Coug]

Throw in an average NCAA QB, and it's 12-1, with a legitimate shot at 13-0.

Nelson's efficiency is 122.11, the overall NCAA efficiency right now is 134.27. Does an 10.0% increase in Nelson's efficiency (i.e. an average NCAA QB) really get us to 12-1 or 13-0?

[Flystripper]

Nelson's efficiency is 122.11, the overall NCAA efficiency right now is 134.27. Does an 10.0% increase in Nelson's efficiency (i.e. an average NCAA QB) really get us to 12-1 or 13-0?

Take away a few picks in key situations and it might. I am not sure what the jump in his efficiency statistic would be.