2012 BYU Football Season

[Art Vandelay]

I will do an assessment versus teams of various quality (non-glory year sample):

Awful defense (defense rank > 100): The same as every one else. Most BYU quarterbacks look the same against this group (except for the very low end ... Berry I think for example). Heaps looks fine in this group too.

Below average defense (defense rank >= 70 and < 100): Riley is good against this group as well. He generally shreds them. Some BYU quarterbacks have struggled with this group. For example, Heaps never had a good game against this group of teams.

Average defense (defense rank >= 40 and < 70): This is were quarterbacks like Doman, Feterik, Walsh, and Hall look better than Nelson. Nelson hasn't had a lot of games in this group but it is a mixed bag. A very good game and an awful game.

Above average defense (defense rank >= 20 and < 40): Most BYU quarterbacks struggle with this group. So does Nelson. It looks like he has a lower probability of a really good game than other BYU quarterbacks but the gap between him and quarterbacks like Feterik, Walsh, and Hall really shrinks. This is where average and better BYU quarterbacks start to struggle. They generally are good against all the categories above this.

Elite (defense rank <= 20): They almost all look bad except for Detmer, Sark his senior year, and Beck his senior year.

Oh, and he has a very weak arm, doesn't make reads as quick as other guys that did well with weak arms, and because he has a weak arm he can't get away with the same frequency of bad decisions as the average BYU quarterback.

Great post. Thanks, that was what I was interested in.

Yes, C3PO is doing a wonderful job showing that Riley really isn't that bad of a QB. And at this point, that is a very credible position to be arguing.

That got a legitimate lol, from me

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

Great post. Thanks, that was what I was interested in.

That got a legitimate lol, from me

Triplet better be paying Disney royalties on that lol.

[Flystripper]

Yes, C3PO is doing a wonderful job showing that Riley really isn't that bad of a QB. And at this point, that is a very credible position to be arguing.

[jay santos]

I haven't really noticed how the light disperses off of him. What is it specifically about the optics that you find particularly troublesome?

http://cougaruteforum.com/showpost.php?p=893912&postcount=2077

[pelagius]

Pelagius is absolutely owning this thread. Stand down everyone before it gets even uglier.

Yep. He's the aTm to Goatnapper's Ty Detmer. THANK YOU SIR MAY I HAVE ANOTHER!

One thing that I would add is that this is not the kind of team this year (coupled with the way the quality of opponents has turned out ex post) where having a quarterback like Riley drives BYU's rating/season record (note, I am not saying it is irrelevant either ... but the gap between having a healthy Nelson and a typical BYU QB is not at big as most suspect). What I mean by that is that BYU needs to have their very best quarterbacks to have a decent probability of a good QB performance against a great/elite defense (and I've shown evidence that is consistent with that). Even against good defenses most BYU quarterbacks struggle (Walsh, Feterik, Doman, Sark (junior year), Beck (before senior year), and Hall).

Well, what are the implications of that? BYU's defense is good enough that even though Riley is more likely to struggle against average defenses than the typically BYU quarterback it doesn't matter much. BYU will likely beat those teams this year even if Riley struggles: San Jose St is in that category. In most years (at least historically), the BYU quarterback needed to be good for BYU to beat average teams consistently. It's just not true this year.

Against good to elite defenses it is not clear Riley is a significant liability at all relative to the typical BYU quarterback (although, he probably becomes somewhat of a significant liability relative to typical BYU quarterbacks against good but not elite defenses). Now, if the coaches had handled the quarterback situation differently in 2010 or 2011 I think there is a small probability that Heaps could have been good enough by this point that he could make the difference against good to elite defenses. But Heaps was another quarterback that was equivalent to a call option really far out of the money.

The real tragedies of the season are the mismanagement of Riley's injury (and not having a prepared backup more generally) and the screw-up that led to Taysom's injury.

[San Juan Sun]

What I mean by that is that BYU needs to have their very best quarterbacks to have a decent probability of a good QB performance against a great/elite defense

Not really. There are far too many variables at play to just assign blame/praise to the BYU QB. We didn't need an elite QB to beat ND. We needed the defense to stop the run in the 4th quarter and a QB that can hit your best WR wide-open on a post. Not even hit him, just loft it up there and let him go get it.

The real tragedy of the season is the mismanagement of Riley's injury and the screw-up that led to Taysom's injury.

I think we can all agree with that. It is nothing short of (sports) tragic. I can't believe that we played a QB that could barely walk against Utah and Boise. It still doesn't sit well with me that there was insinuation that Taysom screwed up the signals resulting in his injury. If BYU sports were real life issues, Taysom's injury was like Benghazi.

[TripletDaddy]

One thing about Bronco that has been frustrating is his empty QB cupboard. But in fairness, over the past few years, he successfully brought in the #1 QB in the country (didn't work out but pretty much every school would have brought in Heaps) and landed Mangum, whose stock was rising very quickly after his performance at the Nike camp and UA game and is also a very nice QB commit.

Is Bronco's problem an inability to bring in QB talent or an ability to manage and develop the talent? It seems like he and his staff are actually doing a good job bringing in the LDS QB talent.

[Indy Coug]

pela/Indy, what do your eyes, and knowledge of football, tell you about where Riley ranks among BYU QBs?

Riley is a below average passing QB. However, his suckiness and the greatness of other BYU QBs, when it specifically applies to games versus "elite" teams, has been exaggerated. Pelagius' replies in this thread does a pretty good job of highlighting the perception vs reality of this particular cross-section of historical data.

[pelagius]

Not really. We didn't need an elite QB to beat ND.

You're arguing against something I didn't say; that is not what I claimed. I said we need an elite BYU quarterback to have a decent probability of a good QB performance against an elite defense. This is based off the fact the pretty much only elite BYU QBs have played well against elite defenses. Elite defenses squash the BYU qb performance distribution. Riley doesn't look different against elite teams than Walsh, Feterik, Doman, Sark (junior year), Beck (not senior year) and Hall.


Sure, Riley missed a throw he should have made. Other BYU quarterbacks would have made that throw. But you know that's not the fair thought experiment. You don't get to think about how other quarterbacks would have looked if you just plop them in for one play. You have to think about how they would do if they replayed the whole game with a different quarterback. Maybe other quarterbacks would have done better. But, mostly (actually overwhemingly) in similar situations they haven't.

[San Juan Sun]

You're arguing against something I didn't say; that is not what I claimed. I said we need an elite BYU quarterback to have a decent probability of a good QB performance against an elite defense. This is based off the fact the pretty much only elite BYU QBs have played well against elite defenses. Elite defenses squash the BYU qb performance distribution. Riley doesn't look different against elite teams than Wash, Feterik, Doman, And Hall.


Sure, Riley missed a throw he should have made. Other BYU quarterbacks would have made that throw. But you know that's not the fair thought experiment. You don't get to think about how other quarterbacks would have looked if you just plop them in for one play. You have to think about how they would do if the replayed they whole game with a different quarterback. Maybe other quarterbacks would have done better. But, mostly in similar situations they haven't.

But you're arguing probability, not fact. You are almost making predictive arguments (i.e. what kind of PER does a BYU QB need to beat a good/elite team?). I am merely looking at the game that's already been played, and saying "That ain't right." My ultimate hope is not for a good PER, it's just for a win.

I do think you make some good points, especially as a quick and dirty analysis for a message board. Obviously, it's not a rigorous study, because of the arbitrary definition of a good/elite/whatever defense, and a lack of consideration of other variables.

[Goatnapper'96]

One thing about Bronco that has been frustrating is his empty QB cupboard. But in fairness, over the past few years, he successfully brought in the #1 QB in the country (didn't work out but pretty much every school would have brought in Heaps) and landed Mangum, whose stock was rising very quickly after his performance at the Nike camp and UA game and is also a very nice QB commit.

Is Bronco's problem an inability to bring in QB talent or an ability to manage and develop the talent? It seems like he and his staff are actually doing a good job bringing in the LDS QB talent.

I think that Beck and Hall both improved as quarterbacks under Bronco's watch as the HC. There were clear mistakes/bad luck in managing the position the past few years. IMO, they gave the keys to Heaps. By all accounts that seemed like the smart thing to do. Then Heaps choked like Jenna and for whatever reason the coaching staff had more trust in giving the keys back to Riley whom they stood by as he could barely hunch over. I don't go to practice but BYU had a clear chance to have a special year this year and IMO lost it due to poor offensive play. Perhaps there was no avoiding it, but for two years I have listened to naysayers warn and it appears they were right.

But as you say just about every qb BYU signed during Mendenhall's era, except for Riley Nelson, was highly recruited and in high demand from other programs. James Lark, Jason Munns, Max Hall, Jake Heaps and Tanner Mangum. Every single one of them had legitimate interest from BCS schools and Heaps and Mangum basically could have gone anywhere they wanted.

[Indy Coug]

I think it's still questionable whether or not Doman is a good QB coach.

[Green Monstah]

I think it's still questionable whether or not Doman is a good QB coach.

Agree. Don't they have recruiters alone? Poor Doman. I want to like him as a coach, and I want him to succeed, but I'm not seeing it. I will say that GT was teh first game I didn't bitch incessantly about his play calling. It has been incrementally better the last three straight weeks.

[pelagius]

But you're arguing probability, not fact. You are almost making predictive arguments (i.e. what kind of PER does a BYU QB need to beat a good/elite team?).

No, this is not my argument; I am not doing that. I am talking about whether it is likely (and how likely it was) that other BYU quarterbacks would have had better passing efficiency rating or scored more points than Riley against a team like Notre Dame. I am not talking about what kind of PER you need to beat a good/elite team. I am not making predictive arguments about wins. I am benchmarking Nelson's overall performance (against the two elite defenses they played) relative to a reasonable sample.

I am merely looking at the game that's already been played, and saying "That ain't right." My ultimate hope is not for a good PER, it's just for a win.

Yes, I agree he missed that throw, and it is really too bad.

Of course, it is worth noting that this would have shown up in much higher PER for Riley. If Riley makes that throw, he would have mostly likely ended up with a PER of about 140. The throw likely results in a touchdown and it increases his yards/attempt a bit and he most likely doesn't throw that interception at the end of the game. So if that's the case Riley makes that throw his performance would not have been typical (in points scored or efficiency). It would have been significantly above average (almost an outlier performance against elite teams). And that's part of the point, other BYU QBs against elite teams probably wouldn't have made that same blunder but typically they have made enough blunders that their performance usually looks a lot like Riley overall.

[Tone Loc]

I like stats as well. Riley now moves up to 99th in the nation in the QB rating. As far as I can tell the lowest in the nation for a senior QB.

Although I can't find the stat that says what our record would be if he didnt score for the other team. Does he lead the nation in pick sixes?

I am glad that I read this thread to figure out that Riley is doing just fine. I would have gone my whole life thinking that in 2012 if we didnt have a QB that made terrible decisions in key moments that with this very good defense it could have been a special year.

Where is the riley nelson is a bad ass thread...