2012 BYU Football Season

[pelagius]

Lots of variables go into it, but for an experienced senior Riley Nelson was a below average D1 qb. Further, for 1 and 3/4 games in the two games that will forever mar this season he was far beneath that.

It seems grossly unfair to treat the Utah and Boise St games as real draws from Riley's performance distribution. But, if people are, then I suppose there is not much left to talk about.

I think fans are duly justified to be real pissed about things this year. The naysayers were right, IMO. Proof is in the pudding.

The naysayers were right about what? I mostly see arguments against strawmen. But you're right, I have seen a number of people absolutely prop up and knock down strawmen left and right.

[The_Douger]

It seems grossly unfair to treat the Utah and Boise St games as real draws from Riley's performance distribution. But, if people are, then I suppose there is not much left to talk about.



The naysayers were right about what? I mostly see arguments against strawmen. But you're right, I have seen a number of people absolutely prop up and knock down strawmen left and right.

As an independent we're not chasing a conference title or anything, so you really only have the bigger games on your schedule to prove yourself. Riley has done very poorly in these. We expect to beat and beat badly the teams he's performed well against.

Right or wrong, all people are going to remember about Riley is how poorly he performed against Utah, Boise, and Notre Dame. And not even so much against Notre Dame, as he actually showed some maturity in that game, but they'll remember the plays he should have made that he didn't. I think he did fine against Oregon State overall, but he still had some stupid turnovers.

The Georgia Tech team didn't turn out to be as big of a game, since they were sporting a defense akin to that of Hawaii.

[Goatnapper'96]

It seems grossly unfair to treat the Utah and Boise St games as real draws from Riley's performance distribution. But, if people are, then I suppose there is not much left to talk about.



The naysayers were right about what? I mostly see arguments against strawmen. But you're right, I have seen a number of people absolutely prop up and knock down strawmen left and right.

I think the nasysayers were right that the qb position specifically and the football program generally has been mismanaged for some time.

[byu71]

The naysayers were right about what? I mostly see arguments against strawmen. But you're right, I have seen a number of people absolutely prop up and knock down strawmen left and right.

Go back and looks at posts by fans a couple of years ago. 2013 was going to be a HUGE year for BYU. Naysayers were saying not without a philosophy change. Without that it will be same ole, same ole. Good record and losing to the better teams on the schedule. Seems to me the naysayers were right.

[Indy Coug]

Go back and looks at posts by fans a couple of years ago. 2013 was going to be a HUGE year for BYU. Naysayers were saying not without a philosophy change. Without that it will be same ole, same ole. Good record and losing to the better teams on the schedule. Seems to me the naysayers were right.

http://cougaruteforum.com/showthread.php?t=53491&highlight=Death

[byu71]

http://cougaruteforum.com/showthread...ighlight=Death

I had to reread my post and look at a calendar to make sure the current year is 2012.

Sure enough this year is 2012 and my post did say a couple of years ago. So I don't know what relevance there is to a post you made at the end of 2011. Of course you may be pointing I was right and you did get on board the end of 2011. If that is the case I apologize.

[pelagius]

I think the nasysayers were right that the qb position specifically and the football program generally has been mismanaged for some time.

Wow, that's the argument. Who disagrees with that? For example, the coaches played a quarterback for two games that could barely walk because of injuries. That, in and of itself, is quarterback mismanagement (and quarterback mismanagement is general mismanagement since the quarterback is obviously the most critical position on the team). And, yes, not having a better option in 2010 than Nelson or a freshman Heaps is most likely mismanagement too.

If that's the argument, my guess is the naysayers have been really arguing with a total of two people worldwide.

[Flystripper]

Actually the opposite, Riley Nelson is worse than it seems.

this

[Goatnapper'96]

Wow, that's the argument. Who disagrees with that? For example, the coaches played a quarterback for two games that could barely walk because of injuries. That, in and of itself, is quarterback mismanagement (and quarterback mismanagement is general mismanagement since the quarterback is obviously the most critical position on the team). And, yes, not having a better option in 2010 than Nelson or a freshman Heaps is most likely mismanagement too.

If that's the argument, my guess is the naysayers have been really arguing with a total of two people worldwide.

You are just a needlenecked wanker!

Now this is my perspective. I think the naysayers generally expect more out of BYU than it is capable. Saying that, I think this year BYU underachieved. I believe they should have won more than 9 games given their schedule, the bad breaks BYU had and the bad breaks their opponents had. When the dust settles BYU will have played 4 teams that will be bowl eligible going 1-3. Two of those 4 teams are legitimately good, but BYU faced both with back up quarterbacks. The other two are above average. Further, I think BYU will have one loss to a team that is not likely to be bowl eligible. I don't think it was a good year for BYU football and this comes on the heels of two other lackluster years. Which came right after BYU had 4 straight very good years.

I think that the coaches made the best decisions that they thought would give BYU the best chance of winning, I just believe if after 3 years since Hall left if Riley this year is the best they can get, and Riley hurt was the best option they had against Utah and BSU, then there are issues.

However, on offense I think qb is not the only issue. Until Jamaal Williams I think the rb recruiting sucked hind titty and the OL has underperformed what I think the recruiting base should provide.

* I don't think 2008 was a very good year for BYU, but it was a good year.

[pelagius]

As an independent we're not chasing a conference title or anything, so you really only have the bigger games on your schedule to prove yourself. Riley has done very poorly in these. We expect to beat and beat badly the teams he's performed well against.

Really, ex ante at the beginning of the season you thought that it was likely that Riley was the kind of quarterback that would have good games against the 29 and 10 ranked defenses (scored/allowed computer model ranking of Utah and Boise St) while significantly injured? I wouldn't have expected much. I would have expected him to have horrible games since he was injured and he was playing against good defenses and I had a pretty good sense of Riley's quality because of 20111.

Right or wrong, all people are going to remember about Riley is how poorly he performed against Utah, Boise, and Notre Dame. And not even so much against Notre Dame, as he actually showed some maturity in that game, but they'll remember the plays he should have made that he didn't. I think he did fine against Oregon State overall, but he still had some stupid turnovers.

Sure, Riley could have played better against Oregon St and Notre Dame. But just like the majority of BYU quarterbacks facing very good defenses, he struggled. His performance was well within the typical range of guys like Hall, Doman, Feterik, and most BYU quarterbacks post the glory years.

Look, I think Riley is a limited quarterback. But he has basically played (outside of injury) as would be expected given his quality and opponent quality.

The Georgia Tech team didn't turn out to be as big of a game, since they were sporting a defense akin to that of Hawaii.

Be fair. The Georgia Tech defense is not good, but it is also not any where near as bad as Hawaii's. Computer model benchmarked there is a 100 rating differences between Georgia Tech's defense and Hawaii's

[The_Douger]

You are just a needlenecked wanker!

Now this is my perspective. I think the naysayers generally expect more out of BYU than it is capable. Saying that, I think this year BYU underachieved. I believe they should have won more than 9 games given their schedule, the bad breaks BYU had and the bad breaks their opponents had. When the dust settles BYU will have played 4 teams that will be bowl eligible going 1-3. Two of those 4 teams are legitimately good, but BYU faced both with back up quarterbacks. The other two are above average. Further, I think BYU will have one loss to a team that is not likely to be bowl eligible. I don't think it was a good year for BYU football and this comes on the heels of two other lackluster years. Which came right after BYU had 4 straight very good years.

I think that the coaches made the best decisions that they thought would give BYU the best chance of winning, I just believe if after 3 years since Hall left if Riley this year is the best they can get, and Riley hurt was the best option they had against Utah and BSU, then there are issues.

However, on offense I think qb is not the only issue. Until Jamaal Williams I think the rb recruiting sucked hind titty and the OL has underperformed what I think the recruiting base should provide.

* I don't think 2008 was a very good year for BYU, but it was a good year.

I had low expectations and I thought we'd go 1-3 against GT, Utah, Boise, and ND; which we did. Nobody anticipated OrSt would be a ranked team this year, and we lost to them as well.

What bothers me now, is that Boise is really down this year, so we should have been able to pull out a win against that squad. I'd sit here and say we should have beaten Utah, but we have a mental block against them regardless of overall team quality. We played like the pussies we always play like against Utah, so I can't be mad about losing to them because we always do that. Notre Dame is just a better team. So is Oregon State.

Maybe with a different QB we only have one loss right now, but there's various reasons we lost the ND and OrSt games so I'm not sure a big upgrade at QB makes a huge difference in those games.

[Goatnapper'96]

Really, ex ante at the beginning of the season you thought that it was likely that Riley was the kind of quarterback that would have good games against the 29 and 10 ranked defenses (scored/allowed computer model ranking of Utah and Boise St) while significantly injured? I wouldn't have expected much. I would have expected him to have horrible games since he was injured and he was playing against good defenses and I had a pretty good sense of Riley's quality because of 20111.



Sure, Riley could have played better against Oregon St and Notre Dame. But just like the majority of BYU quarterbacks facing very good defenses, he struggled. His performance was well within the typical range of guys like Hall, Doman, Feterik, and most BYU quarterbacks post the glory years.

Look, I think Riley is a limited quarterback. But he has basically played (outside of injury) as would be expected given his quality and opponent quality.



Be fair. The Georgia Tech defense is not good, but it is also not any where near as bad as Hawaii's. Computer model benchmarked there is a 100 rating differences between Georgia Tech's defense and Hawaii's

I think if BYU could have switched Riley's performances against Utah and BSU for the OSU and Notre Dame games BYU would be having a very good season this year. In fact that was more what I was expecting going into the year. However, IMO I agree that those two games demonstrate a clear coaching breakdown in that either it was a poor decision to put Riley on the field or if Riley in that state gave the best chance to win the game then there were other issues.

Georgia Tech and USU were both solid wins. The losses to OSU and ND were solid efforts. The losses to Boise State and Utah were not as impressive. I think this BYU squad should have won both.

[The_Douger]

Really, ex ante at the beginning of the season you thought that it was likely that Riley was the kind of quarterback that would have good games against the 29 and 10 ranked defenses (scored/allowed computer model ranking of Utah and Boise St) while significantly injured? I wouldn't have expected much. I would have expected him to have horrible games since he was injured and he was playing against good defenses and I had a pretty good sense of Riley's quality because of 2011.



Sure, Riley could have played better against Oregon St and Notre Dame. But just like the majority of BYU quarterbacks facing very good defenses, he struggled. His performance was well within the typical range of guys like Hall, Doman, Feterik, and most BYU quarterbacks post the glory years.

Look, I think Riley is a limited quarterback. But he has basically played (outside of injury) as would be expected given his quality and opponent quality.



Be fair. The Georgia Tech defense is not good, but it is also not any where near as bad as Hawaii's. Computer model benchmarked there is a 100 rating differences between Georgia Tech's defense and Hawaii's

Obviously my comment on Georgia Tech's D is hyperbole. Riley still had some pretty boneheaded plays in that game too. I think the fanbases issues with Riley don't stem from him being a limited player. It stems from him not showing the discipline and maturity to live to play another day, and that's what bothers fans about those losses. You expect more out of a senior QB that has been in the program for three years. He tried to do too much, he played outside of himself, and it cost us dearly. I can live with an average guy that tries hard and plays within himself. I can't live with a reckless player that tries to play hero ball at every moment a play breaks down.

I think I'm more mad at the coaches for not putting someone else in for the Boise and Utah games. On the other hand, I expect a guy to tell the coaches he can't go if he can't go and he's out there hurting the team in obvious fashion.

[byu71]

I think if BYU could have switched Riley's performances against Utah and BSU for the OSU and Notre Dame games BYU would be having a very good season this year.

Yep, another very good 10 win season and ranked in top 25 at the end. We would have missed on a great year again by losing to the best teams on our schedule, but I have come to believe very good is actually the best we can get at BYU and so be satisfied with it.

The problem is you can't pick and choose where your players are going to have good games. You need coaches to give you something to enhance your chances where the player is not having such a good game. The coaches totally screwed up playing Riley against Utah and BSU. Something in their DNA had them make choices that were on the basis of something besides giving you the best shot to win the game.

[pelagius]

* I don't think 2008 was a very good year for BYU, but it was a good year.

And by reasonable benchmarking this year right now is better than 2008 (and actually as good as any season in the Bronco era besides 2006):

2012 ranking by good computer models: 17, 22, 28

2008 ranking by good computer models: 26, 32, 37