BYU vs TCU 2011: The long-haired assassin goes to Dallas

[Coach McGuirk]

I'm surprised at how many BYU fans are predicting a BYU loss in the prediction thread. Who has TCU played? Baylor? Air Force? SDSU? I mean seriously, we're not that great of a team, but we're playing better each week. TCU has put up big points against bad teams. I think we have a good shot at this one.

Who has BYU beat? those wins give you this confidence? (for the record, I predict a win, but I can see and could be talked into BYU being Blown away).

[Donuthole]

I'm surprised at how many BYU fans are predicting a BYU loss in the prediction thread. Who has TCU played? Baylor? Air Force? SDSU? I mean seriously, we're not that great of a team, but we're playing better each week. TCU has put up big points against bad teams. I think we have a good shot at this one.

Who has BYU played? I don't think there's any shame in predicting a BYU loss, even if they pull out a win. Often the difference between a 10-point loss and a 4-point win is a single play late in the game. If you think BYU will win by 4, you are banking that said play turns in BYU's favor. If you think BYU will lose by 10, you may be banking that said play turns in TCU's favor. I happen to think BYU will show well and play a hard fought game, but that a turnover or special teams late in the game will end up being the difference. And I happen to think it's going to go against BYU.

[lambdacoug]

I'm surprised at how many BYU fans are predicting a BYU loss in the prediction thread. Who has TCU played? Baylor? Air Force? SDSU? I mean seriously, we're not that great of a team, but we're playing better each week. TCU has put up big points against bad teams. I think we have a good shot at this one.

So we're supposed to ignore reason and predict a win just because we're fans?

[pellegrino]

Who has BYU played? I don't think there's any shame in predicting a BYU loss, even if they pull out a win. Often the difference between a 10-point loss and a 4-point win is a single play late in the game. If you think BYU will win by 4, you are banking that said play turns in BYU's favor. If you think BYU will lose by 10, you may be banking that said play turns in TCU's favor. I happen to think BYU will show well and play a hard fought game, but that a turnover or special teams late in the game will end up being the difference. And I happen to think it's going to go against BYU.

I think BYU's schedule, while not great (thanks Utah) is decidedly better than TCU's. I mean Portland State, New Mexico, LA Monroe? That's the equivalent of three Idaho State games right there. I think it will be a close game, but I saw quite a few scores with BYU losing by two touchdowns or more.

[Surfah]

I think we lose by two TDs. Still I picked BYU to win because I just can't pick them to lose to the visor!

[pellegrino]

Who has BYU beat? those wins give you this confidence? (for the record, I predict a win, but I can see and could be talked into BYU being Blown away).

unfortunately, you're right. this can happen on any given Saturday.

[pellegrino]

I think we lose by two TDs. Still I picked BYU to win because I just can't pick them to lose to the visor!

2 TDs? really? Have you seen how many points TCU's opponents are averaging?

Baylor 32
AF 35
LA Monroe 28
SMU 21
SDSU 24.5
NMexico 47

Total points 187.5
Average 31.5

Compare that to BYU's opponents

Ole Miss 29.1
Texas 25
Utah 22.4
UCF 16.3
USU 27.9
SJS 30.3
OSU 30.3

Total points 181.3
Average 25.9


Probably a useless comparison, but still that's a significant disparity between opponents.

I think this game is closer than many think it will be, which gives me hope that the long haired fellow will have reason to make an I'm a Mormon ad someday.

[Surfah]

2 TDs? really? Have you seen how many points TCU's opponents are averaging?

Baylor 32
AF 35
LA Monroe 28
SMU 21
SDSU 24.5
NMexico 47

Total points 187.5
Average 31.5

Compare that to BYU's opponents

Ole Miss 29.1
Texas 25
Utah 22.4
UCF 16.3
USU 27.9
SJS 30.3
OSU 30.3

Total points 181.3
Average 25.9


Probably a useless comparison, but still that's a significant disparity between opponents.

I think this game is closer than many think it will be, which gives me hope that the long haired fellow will have reason to make an I'm a Mormon ad someday.

Bodog has the line at -14. Most everywhere else is -13-13.5.

[pellegrino]

Bodog has the line at -14. Most everywhere else is -13-13.5.

yeah, I know, but the models aren't always right. I feel good about this one. We may not win, but it won't be a two TD loss either. 31-28 byu

[Eddie]

As dumb as this sounds - my hope of BYU winning comes from having Riley at QB.

And the part that will sound dumb is - it isn't because of his scrambling or running ability. I certainly think that will help.

But I like the fact that he has some guts when it comes to throwing the ball downfield. I'm not sure Heaps has that at this point.

I don't think Riley has a big arm or is extremely accurate or anything - but Baylor won by going over the top a little. Heaps has shown little disposition to throw those kinds of passes or have the accuracy to complete them. Particularly if the defender has coverage.

But I see Riley as being willing to throw those kinds of passes and take a shot when he has 1 on 1 coverage and giving a guy like Hoffman the opportunity to use his height and size to make a play in spite of a defender being there.

Yea - that is risky. But I think raking some risks is the only way BYU wins.

Of course, this is all dependent upon BYU's OL holding up against TCU's DL and forcing TCU to commit to blitzing for QB pressure. It would also help if BYU's OL was successful enough at opening some holes for runners that TCU felt like they couldn't use their DB's for pass coverage alone.

Then again - I'm an optimist. I tend to predict a win every time. Yea, sometimes I'm wrong. But where is the fun in going into a game expecting and predicting a loss? Why even watch?

[Eddie]

Handicapper on the radio this morning says he expects BYU to not only cover, but win the game outright. Called it the "biggest upset of the weekend".

I figured he just knows his audience and wants folks to like him and then use his business - so he's talking up the local team.

Then he said he expects Utah to not cover the spread and lose outright. By 10 pts.

At that point I decided maybe he isn't just trying to endear himself with the locals, but maybe he actually believes this stuff. So I suppose that helps my optimism just a little.

He also said he expects Riley to have a big day and TCU to have a difficult time with the dual threat he provides.

Starting to get excited for the game tonight!

[Joe Public]

Enjoy the game, everyone. Go Cougars!

[jay santos]

Handicapper on the radio this morning says he expects BYU to not only cover, but win the game outright. Called it the "biggest upset of the weekend".

I figured he just knows his audience and wants folks to like him and then use his business - so he's talking up the local team.

Then he said he expects Utah to not cover the spread and lose outright. By 10 pts.

At that point I decided maybe he isn't just trying to endear himself with the locals, but maybe he actually believes this stuff. So I suppose that helps my optimism just a little.

He also said he expects Riley to have a big day and TCU to have a difficult time with the dual threat he provides.

Starting to get excited for the game tonight!

I said this earlier. Both the BYU and Utah games look like really bad spreads. Bet on BYU and against Utah, enjoy both games, and make lots of money.

[jay santos]

I said this earlier. Both the BYU and Utah games look like really bad spreads. Bet on BYU and against Utah, enjoy both games, and make lots of money.

Of course this means TCU by 20, Utah by 10, thus showing why I never bet on sports.

[Surfah]

Weird doesn't feel like game day. Trying to wrap up things at work to head home for a PTC with the kindergartener. Then the ward Trunk or Treat. And then home to watch the game on the DVR.