Bowl Projection Thread

[Coach McGuirk]

Where does BSU end up? If the season ends as it is today BSU will not go to a BCS game. Where does the WAC champion go? Humanitarian? Is there any wiggle room for them to maybe be invited to a bigger bowl left open by a conference that doesn't have enough qualifiers.

If things fell a certain way the Holiday would be open.

Yeah, the WAC champ usually goes to the boise bowl, but they have been let out before (see 2009 poinsettia bowl). Unlike last year, I think they get left out. With a 1 loss wisconsin and tOSU and Auburn and LSU and Oregon and Stanford, there are just too many quality AQ teams to be left out. BSU is gonna be pissed at the end of the year. Even more so if TCU announces it is going to the Big Easy.

[Uncle Ted]

Where does BSU end up? If the season ends as it is today BSU will not go to a BCS game. Where does the WAC champion go? Humanitarian? Is there any wiggle room for them to maybe be invited to a bigger bowl left open by a conference that doesn't have enough qualifiers.

If things fell a certain way the Holiday would be open.

BSU could land in the Sugar Bowl playing against who ever wins the SEC (most likely Auburn) or the Fiesta Bowl playing against the Big 12 winner (most likely Nebraska or, maybe, O(S)U ).

[The_Tick]

The BCS should have thought of the doomsday scenario that a conference might not have a team in the top 25 rankings. And if they don't...that conference doesn't get a spot at the table.

Stupid...stupid...stupid.

[USUC]

I don't know how much stock to put into what Harmon says, but it appears that Utah would be the one going to the Veg.

http://www.deseretnews.com/blog/60/10010504/Harmons-halftime-Las-Vegas-glad-to-get-a-crack-at-Utah-not-TCU.html

The Vegas Bowl is a bigger payout than the Poinsettia so I couldn't see Utah going to San Diego if given a choice.

[TripletDaddy]

Without the BCS who would have gone to the Fiesta or other major bowl? Without the BCS Utah, BSU, Hawaii and TCU would never have played in the Fiesta and Sugar Bowls.

Utah would have celebrated 2004 and 2008 in Vegas against 6-6, 7-5 P10 teams.

I wish things were back to the way they were before the bcs...when the rose bowl was PAC 10 and Big 10, the Fiesta was Big 12, the Sugar was SEC, etc. Those were the days.

[Uncle Ted]

I don't know how much stock to put into what Harmon says, but it appears that Utah would be the one going to the Veg.

http://www.deseretnews.com/blog/60/10010504/Harmons-halftime-Las-Vegas-glad-to-get-a-crack-at-Utah-not-TCU.html

The Vegas Bowl is a bigger payout than the Poinsettia so I couldn't see Utah going to San Diego if given a choice.

Also, the Poinsettia bowl is in San Diego which makes it a home game for San Diego St. (It is easy to sell tickets to the home crowd.)

I was thinking that Air Force would be going to the Armed Forces bowl again but the Independence bowl has the pick from the MWC teams before the Armed Forces Bowl. In addition, the Barksdale Air Force base is near by. (Think ticket sales again.)

This leaves the New Mexico bowl and the Armed Forces bowl to fight over BYU after they win six games. (Please let it be the Armed Forces Bowl.)

[TripletDaddy]

Also, the Poinsettia bowl is in San Diego which makes it a home game for San Diego St. (It is easy to sell tickets to the home crowd.)

I was thinking that Air Force would be going to the Armed Forces bowl again but the Independence bowl has the pick from the MWC teams before the Armed Forces Bowl. In addition, the Barksdale Air Force base is near by. (Think ticket sales again.)

This leaves the New Mexico bowl and the Armed Forces bowl to fight over BYU after they win six games. (Please let it be the Armed Forces Bowl.)

Why is everyone assuming that sdsu will be invited to the poinsettia bowl?

Has anyone ever attended a sdsu football game? They rarely draw more than around 15k in attendance. Max. Byu games there are like home games for byu. You can buy tickets for 6 bucks right before the game.

Sdsu fans are going to pay 50-70 bucks for a ticket to an sdsu football game? I doubt it.

[pellegrino]

Why is everyone assuming that sdsu will be invited to the poinsettia bowl?

Has anyone ever attended a sdsu football game? They rarely draw more than around 15k in attendance. Max. Byu games there are like home games for byu. You can buy tickets for 6 bucks right before the game.

Sdsu fans are going to pay 50-70 bucks for a ticket to an sdsu football game? I doubt it.

they've got fans who are willing to whine for three weeks about a blown fumble call, maybe that translates into an energized fanbase. Or maybe not.

[Mormon Red Death]

I wish things were back to the way they were before the bcs...when the rose bowl was PAC 10 and Big 10, the Fiesta was Big 12, the Sugar was SEC, etc. Those were the days.

Well traditionally the big 8 played in the orange bowl.

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[Mormon Red Death]

Without the BCS who would have gone to the Fiesta or other major bowl? Without the BCS Utah, BSU, Hawaii and TCU would never have played in the Fiesta and Sugar Bowls.

Utah would have celebrated 2004 and 2008 in Vegas against 6-6, 7-5 P10 teams.

We don't know how the bowl contracts would have worked out without the bcs. Its likely that as soon as miami left the big east they wouldn't have a big game anymore. I am willing to bet it would go something like this.

Orange sec#2 v big12 #1
Sugar sec #1 v acc #1
Fiesta big12 #2 v big 10 #2 or at large
And then orange and fiesta would rotate between the big12 #1 and 2

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[Uncle Ted]

Why is everyone assuming that sdsu will be invited to the poinsettia bowl?

Has anyone ever attended a sdsu football game? They rarely draw more than around 15k in attendance. Max. Byu games there are like home games for byu. You can buy tickets for 6 bucks right before the game.

Sdsu fans are going to pay 50-70 bucks for a ticket to an sdsu football game? I doubt it.

SDSU is currently 7-2 and tied for second (w/ Utah) in the MWC standings with one conference lost each. The second-place team is guaranteed a spot in the poinsettia bowl. Of course, SDSU still has TCU (at Ft. Worth) and Utah (at SD) to play. They are going to lose at least one of these games.
At the end of the regular season I suspect that the conference standings may look like this:

TCU 8-0
Utah 7-1 (maybe 6-2 assuming they lose to either SDSU on the road or BYU at home)
SDSU 5-3 (maybe 6-2 assuming they can beat Utah at home)
AFA 5-3
BYU 5-3 (maybe 6-2 assuming they can beat Utah)

With TCU heading to a BCS game Utah would be the pick for the LV Bowl. The Poinsettia bowl may pick SDSU because of the home crowd. Of course, BYU would sell a good number of tickets as well. The Independence bowl would most likely pick the AFA because of the Barksdale AFB being near by. Therefore, BYU would be looking at the New Mexico or the Armed Services Bowl.

[Mormon Red Death]

BSU could land in the Sugar Bowl playing against who ever wins the SEC (most likely Auburn) or the Fiesta Bowl playing against the Big 12 winner (most likely Nebraska or, maybe, O(S)U ).

I think its very possible Boise St plays Utah in the vegas bowl. If the following occurs:

Auburn loses to either Bama (At bama) or SEC title game or Oregon loses (doubtful). Stanford (at ASU At CaL and orest at home) or LSU (ULM, Ole Miss at home & Arkansas in Little Rock) move up to # 4. Especially if Stanford moves up.

If any of the 10 slots remain open after application of provisions 1 through 5, and if no team qualifies under paragraph No. 5 and an at-large team from a conference with an annual automatic berth for its champion is ranked No. 4 in the final BCS Standings, that team will become an automatic qualifier provided that no at-large team from the same conference qualifies for the national championship game.

Lets say LSU wins out and Auburn loses to Bama but wins the SEC title game. Lets also say that Auburn drops to 5 after the loss to Bama.

That would put TCU v Oregon in National champ game.
Rose (first pick) - Stanford v Big 10 winner
Fiesta - Big 12 winner most likely Nebraska maybe Ok St
Sugar - Auburn
Orange - Va Tech

The selections then are:

Sugar - They would take either Big10 runner up, Big12 runner, Boise St or LSU
Orange - Unless the Sugar takes LSU they get to pick them or Big East champ
Fiesta - Big East

Leaves Boise St out. The Pac-10 cant fill the vegas bowl so they swing a deal for Boise and its Utah v Boise St.

[Surfah]

I think its very possible Boise St plays Utah in the vegas bowl. If the following occurs:

Auburn loses to either Bama (At bama) or SEC title game or Oregon loses (doubtful). Stanford (at ASU At CaL and orest at home) or LSU (ULM, Ole Miss at home & Arkansas in Little Rock) move up to # 4. Especially if Stanford moves up.



Lets say LSU wins out and Auburn loses to Bama but wins the SEC title game. Lets also say that Auburn drops to 5 after the loss to Bama.

That would put TCU v Oregon in National champ game.
Rose (first pick) - Stanford v Big 10 winner
Fiesta - Big 12 winner most likely Nebraska maybe Ok St
Sugar - Auburn
Orange - Va Tech

The selections then are:

Sugar - They would take either Big10 runner up, Big12 runner, Boise St or LSU
Orange - Unless the Sugar takes LSU they get to pick them or Big East champ
Fiesta - Big East

Leaves Boise St out. The Pac-10 cant fill the vegas bowl so they swing a deal for Boise and its Utah v Boise St.

Utah doesn't want any part of Boise.

[Mormon Red Death]

Utah doesn't want any part of Boise.

understatement of the year

[Surfah]

understatement of the year

Yeah. Sorry, not rubbing it in. I just think that BSU is that good.

It's amazing that Boise could conceivably not just be shut out of the MNC game, but a BCS bowl entirely. I wonder what if any difference beating Nevada will have on the computer polls for them. I really don't think Auburn will win out. And while I am less convinced about Oregon's defense each week, they have an offense that will outscore everyone. I think Oregon and TCU are very likely to play for it all. How ironic that Boise beat both of those teams last year?