The Official 2025 BYU Football Thread

[falafel]

Random FPI updates after Week 8:

Beat Iowa State - 54.3%
Beat Texas Tech - 40.2%
Beat Cincinnati - 56.5%

10 regular season wins - 71.3%
11 regular season wins - 34.6%
12 regular season wins - 7.4%

Big 12 Championship - 32.4%
CFP berth - 52.0%

Those are incredible numbers. The last two are a little confusing to me though.

[Omaha 680]

Those are incredible numbers. The last two are a little confusing to me though.

I think the CFP berth probability includes all conference championship and at-large selection scenarios in the model. So it makes sense that it would be higher than the Big 12 championship probability but yeah it's a little confusing the way I wrote it.

[LiveCoug]

Impressive disrespect from Pollack and not just because he left out BYU...

https://x.com/davidpollack47/status/1980435950036758554


edit: Ha.. he deleted it. It was his CFP predictions. He had 6 SEC, 3 B10, 2 ACC and 1 G5 listed in his bracket

[Pelado]

BYU currently sitting at #9 in the Massey Composite Index:

https://masseyratings.com/ranks

Their best rating is #3, coming from Steinberg and the worst rating is #34 coming from PiRate.

Not sure what the inputs are for PiRate, but it doesn't seem to value wins and/or detract for losses. A few of the teams rated better than BYU per PiRate along with their current record:

13 Penn State 3-4
17 Clemson 3-4
19 Utah 5-2
26 Florida 3-4
27 South Carolina 3-4
28 Auburn 3-4
31 Baylor 4-3

I thought that maybe it just hadn't been updated from earlier in the season but, nope. The Holy War result moved BYU up from 36 to 34 and moved Utah up (up? seriously?) from 24 to 19.

[BlueK]

I listen to some national college football talk on SiriusXM and since the Utah game some of the hosts have started talking more about BYU. Pretty much universally it's positive with some questioning of why the betting lines are so much off. In general they don't get it any more than we don't, with comments about BYU is proving on the field that they're good. On one show they made fun of Utah fans who last week when it was being discussed how BYU being the underdogs and the Utah fans were telling them the 2.5 points was way too little and it should have been at least 7 or more. Ute fans are becoming a real joke around the Big 12 markets. So brash but have not been able to back it up.

[Green Monstah]

We are not going to blow B12 teams out, and our coach isn't hyper-focused on RUTS. Our offense isn't consistent enough, and our defense isn't quite good enough for huge margins of victory. As a result, our games are going to be tight. I am a little surprised we're 2.5 dogs to ISU (even on the road). Hopefully, it just keeps the guys humble and focused.

The jump to -5.5 Utah last week was probably just driven by where the bets were being placed.

[BlueK]

We are not going to blow B12 teams out, and our coach isn't hyper-focused on RUTS. Our offense isn't consistent enough, and our defense isn't quite good enough for huge margins of victory. As a result, our games are going to be tight. I am a little surprised we're 2.5 dogs to ISU (even on the road). Hopefully, it just keeps the guys humble and focused.

The jump to -5.5 Utah last week was probably just driven by where the bets were being placed.

The weird thing to me is that we continue to be underdogs to teams that have not exactly been overly impressive, like Iowa St. Probably underrating them a bit, because of their loss to a Colorado team we handled pretty well -- another team we were expected to lose to.

[SteelBlue]

The weird thing to me is that we continue to be underdogs to teams that have not exactly been overly impressive, like Iowa St. Probably underrating them a bit, because of their loss to a Colorado team we handled pretty well -- another team we were expected to lose to.

They haven't lost at home since 2023 to Texas. I feel like Vegas weighs that heavily. It also seems that Vegas is going to care about Bear being a true freshman all season no matter how he plays. If this game was in Provo I'd pick BYU by 10+ but in Ames... they seem to be a different squad.

[Omaha 680]

#10 in both AP and coaches. The polls are very similar to each other this week. The good news is there are now 5 Big 12 teams ranked. The bad news is Big 12 teams still getting pretty disrespected in their placement relative to single and multiple loss teams from the SEC and ND. I dont really care about poll placement except for the fact that it absolutely influences the committee. The Big 12 should be looking at 2 bids and fighting for 3. But if the committee thinking mirrors the voters we will he a one bid league again.

Edit: also BYU playoff odds to 69%

[Pelado]

#10 in both AP and coaches. The polls are very similar to each other this week. The good news is there are now 5 Big 12 teams ranked. The bad news is Big 12 teams still getting pretty disrespected in their placement relative to single and multiple loss teams from the SEC and ND. I dont really care about poll placement except for the fact that it absolutely influences the committee. The Big 12 should be looking at 2 bids and fighting for 3. But if the committee thinking mirrors the voters we will he a one bid league again.

Edit: also BYU playoff odds to 69%

69...heh, heh, 69....

[Jeff Lebowski]

Uh…. hey you guys, our football and basketball teams are both ranked in the top 10.

[Green Monstah]

Uh…. hey you guys, our football and basketball teams are both ranked in the top 10.

Unreal.

[USUC]

Perhaps the most important ranking of all

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[Omaha 680]

Texas Tech kickoff announced. Not a huge fan of the 10 am MST kickoff for this most important road game in as long as I can remember. Hopefully the team is traveling out before Friday.

[Pelado]

Texas Tech kickoff announced. Not a huge fan of the 10 am MST kickoff for this most important road game in as long as I can remember. Hopefully the team is traveling out before Friday.

Damn. The flight I booked is scheduled to arrive in Lubbock at 10:25 am MT. I figured it was relatively safe that the game wouldn't start before noon. That's the earliest that I could get there on Saturday. May need to look at flying in on Friday night, but the rates are probably going to be sky-high now.