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All right, everybody, here is what has happened and is happening.
As you can imagine, a lot happens out of the public view and much of what has recently transpired has been in the works for years now. The PAC 10 has known ever since championship games began that expansion was inevitable, and BYU had been positioning themselves to be a candidate for expansion, particularly by scheduling PAC 10 games. Given that the MWC's two best bowls, at least one of which would certainly scoop BYU up, already feature a PAC 10 team, each year's schedule practically ensured two PAC 10 games.
Two things happened that led to the recent turn of events. The first is a rising Utah. It's no secret that the PAC 10 didn't want BYU, but the PAC 10 would have had little other choice if they had wanted to go to 12 in, say, 2001. Even the 2004 Utes did little to instill confidence in PAC 10 officials; note that after busting the BCS, the head coach and offensive coordinators left, and only a hefty salary increase kept the defensive coordinator on board. 2008 showed that Utah was a program that would at the very least be acceptable, with no need to hold one's nose over the church stuff BYU would have brought along with it. Notice too the recent surge of Utah PAC 10 games.
The second was the prospects of a TV deal. The Big 10 has broken new ground with its channel, and the millions upon millions of dollars it is earning has escaped nobody's attention. The PAC 10 might have been able to resist the allure of adding a championship game before, given both the risks and headaches inherent in expansion, but the potential profit margin is now blowing away the risk analysis.
That Utah would be going to the PAC 10 has been settled for a while now. Really, the only thing that surprised anybody in the carousel of this summer was that the PAC 10 came so close to pulling off the 16 team proposal. Most had been planning on the actual outcome for some time now. BYU's frustration over playing PAC 10 teams with PAC 10 refs reflects this realization. It was about this time that the really important decisions had been made, and the rest was about the hoops that had to be jumped through.
So too have the die been cast as to the fate of the Big XII and BYU. Note the sudden attention BYU is paying to Big XII teams like Oklahoma and Texas. They are positioning themselves for the inevitable. BYU and the Big XII have already rendered an understanding between each other that expansion will happen and that BYU will join.
It isn't going to happen immediately for two reasons. One is that BYU is not an ideal candidate for the Big XII. Religion doesn't have anything to do with it this time-- it's a matter of distance. Utah is fairly equidistant to the other PAC schools, but look at a map and compare the nucleus of Big XII schools to BYU. Utah is a ways away from Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and Iowa. There is also the matter of the second candidate for expansion. To expand immediately, the Big XII would have to invite somebody that would accept immediately, like TCU, Houston, AFA, or CSU, none of whom contribute much more than a 12th body. An immediate move would also damage conference prestige, making the conference look desperate in a landscape where image has an awful lot to do with who ends up at the top of the rankings come bowl season.
A championship game at JerryWorld is just too much to resist, practically paying for the addition of the twelfth team even if that team were to add nothing else (though probably not for an eleventh AND twelfth team). A year or two gives the Big XII a chance to test the loyalty of Notre Dame, Arkansas, or Louisville and to cast expansion to 12 as an offensive maneuver rather than a defensive reaction. The Big XII is therefore ostensibly petitioning to have the game with 10 or 11, a request they know full well will fail but gives plausible deniability in the meantime. Once the decision denying their request comes down and a year or two of no Jerryworld starts to weigh on those dissenters powerful enough to make the process rough, the invites will come.
BYU is aware of all of the above, but for obvious reasons, have to keep quiet. What THEY know, however, and what the Big XII doesn't know, is that BYU is about to be invited to join the NFC West division. The NFL, aware of BYU's international and divine following, is anxious to have the Cougars on board, even if they must work around the Sunday play issue. One serious discussion in the ongoing negotiations is to play games across the international date line in the Philippines, where there is a strong LDS population, so the TV will be able to show the game on Sunday even though the game will technically be played on a Monday. Fans across the nation, keenly aware of the attendance prowess of the Provo juggernaut, are also expressing their willingness to give up beer if it means bringing BYU on board.
As you can imagine, a lot happens out of the public view and much of what has recently transpired has been in the works for years now. The PAC 10 has known ever since championship games began that expansion was inevitable, and BYU had been positioning themselves to be a candidate for expansion, particularly by scheduling PAC 10 games. Given that the MWC's two best bowls, at least one of which would certainly scoop BYU up, already feature a PAC 10 team, each year's schedule practically ensured two PAC 10 games.
Two things happened that led to the recent turn of events. The first is a rising Utah. It's no secret that the PAC 10 didn't want BYU, but the PAC 10 would have had little other choice if they had wanted to go to 12 in, say, 2001. Even the 2004 Utes did little to instill confidence in PAC 10 officials; note that after busting the BCS, the head coach and offensive coordinators left, and only a hefty salary increase kept the defensive coordinator on board. 2008 showed that Utah was a program that would at the very least be acceptable, with no need to hold one's nose over the church stuff BYU would have brought along with it. Notice too the recent surge of Utah PAC 10 games.
The second was the prospects of a TV deal. The Big 10 has broken new ground with its channel, and the millions upon millions of dollars it is earning has escaped nobody's attention. The PAC 10 might have been able to resist the allure of adding a championship game before, given both the risks and headaches inherent in expansion, but the potential profit margin is now blowing away the risk analysis.
That Utah would be going to the PAC 10 has been settled for a while now. Really, the only thing that surprised anybody in the carousel of this summer was that the PAC 10 came so close to pulling off the 16 team proposal. Most had been planning on the actual outcome for some time now. BYU's frustration over playing PAC 10 teams with PAC 10 refs reflects this realization. It was about this time that the really important decisions had been made, and the rest was about the hoops that had to be jumped through.
So too have the die been cast as to the fate of the Big XII and BYU. Note the sudden attention BYU is paying to Big XII teams like Oklahoma and Texas. They are positioning themselves for the inevitable. BYU and the Big XII have already rendered an understanding between each other that expansion will happen and that BYU will join.
It isn't going to happen immediately for two reasons. One is that BYU is not an ideal candidate for the Big XII. Religion doesn't have anything to do with it this time-- it's a matter of distance. Utah is fairly equidistant to the other PAC schools, but look at a map and compare the nucleus of Big XII schools to BYU. Utah is a ways away from Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and Iowa. There is also the matter of the second candidate for expansion. To expand immediately, the Big XII would have to invite somebody that would accept immediately, like TCU, Houston, AFA, or CSU, none of whom contribute much more than a 12th body. An immediate move would also damage conference prestige, making the conference look desperate in a landscape where image has an awful lot to do with who ends up at the top of the rankings come bowl season.
A championship game at JerryWorld is just too much to resist, practically paying for the addition of the twelfth team even if that team were to add nothing else (though probably not for an eleventh AND twelfth team). A year or two gives the Big XII a chance to test the loyalty of Notre Dame, Arkansas, or Louisville and to cast expansion to 12 as an offensive maneuver rather than a defensive reaction. The Big XII is therefore ostensibly petitioning to have the game with 10 or 11, a request they know full well will fail but gives plausible deniability in the meantime. Once the decision denying their request comes down and a year or two of no Jerryworld starts to weigh on those dissenters powerful enough to make the process rough, the invites will come.
BYU is aware of all of the above, but for obvious reasons, have to keep quiet. What THEY know, however, and what the Big XII doesn't know, is that BYU is about to be invited to join the NFC West division. The NFL, aware of BYU's international and divine following, is anxious to have the Cougars on board, even if they must work around the Sunday play issue. One serious discussion in the ongoing negotiations is to play games across the international date line in the Philippines, where there is a strong LDS population, so the TV will be able to show the game on Sunday even though the game will technically be played on a Monday. Fans across the nation, keenly aware of the attendance prowess of the Provo juggernaut, are also expressing their willingness to give up beer if it means bringing BYU on board.
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