The Big 12 expansion groundswell

[Bo Diddley]

Does BYU really get more eyeballs than Utah? I thought I read something by SI that Utah is ranked higher. Maybe that’s just because Utah has played in the Rose Bowl, multiple P12 championship games, a Sugar Bowl and a Fiesta Bowl while BYU has been playing in the Liberty Bowl.



This line of thinking makes zero sense to me, the idea that since you are a long time member you are in. Again why would you share money with MSU and Vanderbilt and South Carolina and Indiana and Purdue and Minnesota when you can jettison those programs and share money with programs that actually move the needle like: Clemson and Oregon and Washington and Miami and Florida State?

ACC is done they just don’t realize it yet, they’ll be raided soon. The P12 saw this coming which is why they tried to poach Texas and Oklahoma years ago.

It's entirely possible some teams with smaller fanbases get kicked out, but it's a much better position to be on the inside when you're a bubble team than on the outside.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Is there any rational adult that thinks the B12 is a good place to be?

The way it seems to me is that if you aren’t in the SEC or B1G you are going to be relegated to a second rate D1. I really like Mike Leach’s thoughts on this -

https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/se...lege-football/

I don’t see a draft but something drastic has to be done if there’s going to be any salvation for college football.

I see something like this in 5-10 years:

Sec:

Alabama
Georgia
Miami
Florida
Florida state
Clemson
Texas
Oklahoma
Ole miss
A&M
LSU
Auburn
Missouri
Tennessee
Virginia
Pitt

Maybe 3-4 more from the scraps of the acc and sec

B1G

Penn state
Ohio state
Michigan
Michigan state
Wisconsin
Nebraska
Iowa
Washington
Ucla
USC
Colorado
Houston
Washington
Oregon
Arizona state
Note dame

Maybe 3-4 more from the P12 and B12

With this you’ll get some schools that convert to a Gonzaga situation and become ‘basketball only’ schools, places like:

Duke
North Carolina
Arizona
Kansas
Wake Forest
NC State
Kentucky

But 40 programs in with the big TV contracts and major bowls and all the other schools in some sort of ncaa amateur division. They’ll maintain D1 status with the other schools becoming NFL lite.

I moved the discussion to this thread.

I get your logic and a lot of people are saying this, but I don't think the future is this dire. I don't see the benefit of only two football conferences and I don't agree that it is inevitable to only have 40 viable teams. Two big conferences and 1-2 second tier conferences? Sure.

Some schools can't survive because there are richer schools? I have news for you: there has always been an imbalance.

[fusnik]

It's entirely possible some teams with smaller fanbases get kicked out, but it's a much better position to be on the inside when you're a bubble team than on the outside.

Why?

The networks and schools seem to give 2 shits about tradition and culture why would they all of a sudden give 2 shits about Rutgers?

Nobody 10 years ago could have conceived that the P12 would essentially be extinct. 7 of the schools have been together for over 100 years. Ucla almost 100.

Isn’t Rutgers the prime example of this? Rutgers is only in because they had a couple good seasons and they are in the NYC area yet I’m sure the B1G would kick them immediately for Pitt right now. Seems to me you need biggish markets or regional areas coupled with strong programs. Based on that Utah has a shot.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Does BYU really get more eyeballs than Utah? I thought I read something by SI that Utah is ranked higher. Maybe that’s just because Utah has played in the Rose Bowl, multiple P12 championship games, a Sugar Bowl and a Fiesta Bowl while BYU has been playing in the Liberty Bowl.

Look at Utah's viewership numbers from last year. Take away the P12 championship game and Rose Bowl and you cut it in half. Yes, they have benefited greatly from the P12 membership, but BYU has a bigger nationwide fanbase.

This line of thinking makes zero sense to me, the idea that since you are a long time member you are in. Again why would you share money with MSU and Vanderbilt and South Carolina and Indiana and Purdue and Minnesota when you can jettison those programs and share money with programs that actually move the needle like: Clemson and Oregon and Washington and Miami and Florida State?

ACC is done they just don’t realize it yet, they’ll be raided soon. The P12 saw this coming which is why they tried to poach Texas and Oklahoma years ago.

You just aren't being realistic. They aren't going to jettison all of these programs. Come on.

Yes, media contracts are going up, but that may not last. Viewership and attendance are slowly declining. For college football to survive, the last thing they want to do is alienate large sections of the country with overly-exclusive arrangement. Not to mention the lawsuits, congressional hearings, etc.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Why?

The networks and schools seem to give 2 shits about tradition and culture why would they all of a sudden give 2 shits about Rutgers?

Nobody 10 years ago could have conceived that the P12 would essentially be extinct. 7 of the schools have been together for over 100 years. Ucla almost 100.

Isn’t Rutgers the prime example of this? Rutgers is only in because they had a couple good seasons and they are in the NYC area yet I’m sure the B1G would kick them immediately for Pitt right now. Seems to me you need biggish markets or regional areas coupled with strong programs. Based on that Utah has a shot.

There is a huge difference between poaching a team from another conference (happens all the time) and booting a team from an existing conference (when has that ever happened?).

[beefytee]

There is a huge difference between poaching a team from another conference (happens all the time) and booting a team from an existing conference (when has that ever happened?).

Only one I've ever heard of is Temple getting booted from the Big East back in the day.

The other crazy suggestion there was that UNC would get rid of football. Duke sure, but UNC is a big public school that could potentially do very well in football.

[Bo Diddley]

Why?

The networks and schools seem to give 2 shits about tradition and culture why would they all of a sudden give 2 shits about Rutgers?

Nobody 10 years ago could have conceived that the P12 would essentially be extinct. 7 of the schools have been together for over 100 years. Ucla almost 100.

Isn’t Rutgers the prime example of this? Rutgers is only in because they had a couple good seasons and they are in the NYC area yet I’m sure the B1G would kick them immediately for Pitt right now. Seems to me you need biggish markets or regional areas coupled with strong programs. Based on that Utah has a shot.

I said it's possible some will get booted, so I agree with you. Buy why is it a better position to already be in the conference than outside the conference? Now I don't think you're actually reading what I'm writing.

[fusnik]

There is a huge difference between poaching a team from another conference (happens all the time) and booting a team from an existing conference (when has that ever happened?).

The only thing stopping this is congressional hearings. Some dude who went to Mississippi State freaking out about rumors that his school is getting the boot.

It’s the only thing I thought that was going to keep the P12 together, California, Oregon and Washington politics. Now that UCLA is gone who knows. I can’t imagine when the ACC explodes that the politicians who are approving massive amounts of funding for state run schools are going to be cool with UNC being left out in the cold, or the donors that have pumped in 50mm are going to be happy.

It seems inevitable though 30-40 teams that are quasi NFL teams with loose affiliations with academic institutions and 100 D1 schools that will get 2-3 auto bids into the big bowl games.

[fusnik]

I said it's possible some will get booted, so I agree with you. Buy why is it a better position to already be in the conference than outside the conference? Now I don't think you're actually reading what I'm writing.

If you aren’t in the B1G or the SEC are you really in a conference?

ACC is soon to be dead, P12 is virtually dead, the B12 with tech and Kansas and Iowa State and Baylor really any different than being in the MWC right now?

If you aren’t in the 2 big super conferences you are out.

In 2 years a 4-5 loss SEC/B1G team will play in the Fiesta or Sugar or Rose.

Why would any of these schools schedule programs from
the scraps of the ACC/P12/B12 ever again?

[Jeff Lebowski]

ACC is soon to be dead, P12 is virtually dead, the B12 with tech and Kansas and Iowa State and Baylor really any different than being in the MWC right now?

I am going to go way out on a limb and predict that the next B12 media contract will be bigger then the MWC contract. By an order of magnitude, probably.

[Bo Diddley]

If you aren’t in the B1G or the SEC are you really in a conference?

ACC is soon to be dead, P12 is virtually dead, the B12 with tech and Kansas and Iowa State and Baylor really any different than being in the MWC right now?

If you aren’t in the 2 big super conferences you are out.

In 2 years a 4-5 loss SEC/B1G team will play in the Fiesta or Sugar or Rose.

Why would any of these schools schedule programs from
the scraps of the ACC/P12/B12 ever again?

You see things happening a lot faster than I do. We agree the direction college football is headed, but I think it's going to take a lot longer to get there.

[fusnik]

You see things happening a lot faster than I do. We agree the direction college football is headed, but I think it's going to take a lot longer to get there.

Oklahoma and Texas go into the SEC in 2024. They’ll probably add some sort of Florida State/Clemson/VaTech/Miami combo by that point as well.

An SEC team will be able to say they beat Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Oklahoma and conceivably lose to LSU, Auburn, Clemson and Florida State.

That team won’t get in over a BYU team in the B12 that loses to Baylor and Iowa State?

When you start gaming out the implications of these conference realignments, the haves are not going to be happy with sharing with the have nots.

[fusnik]

I am going to go way out on a limb and predict that the next B12 media contract will be bigger then the MWC contract. By an order of magnitude, probably.

Of course. I could even be convinced that collegiate/high school football becomes a regional sport in 20 years. South and north east dominated with places like California moving away from contact football.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Of course. I could even be convinced that collegiate/high school football becomes a regional sport in 20 years. South and north east dominated with places like California moving away from contact football.

That could very well happen.

[Bo Diddley]

Oklahoma and Texas go into the SEC in 2024. They’ll probably add some sort of Florida State/Clemson/VaTech/Miami combo by that point as well.

An SEC team will be able to say they beat Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Oklahoma and conceivably lose to LSU, Auburn, Clemson and Florida State.

That team won’t get in over a BYU team in the B12 that loses to Baylor and Iowa State?

When you start gaming out the implications of these conference realignments, the haves are not going to be happy with sharing with the have nots.

It's all about shared perceptions. That's what polls are. How lopsided were the wins? A lot of other factors will play into that shared perception. You see the other P5 conferences as being irrelevant immediately. These things take time. Moving from an unstable P5 conference to a more stable P5 conference is a good thing while the changes take place. Being in one of the P2 conferences is also a good place to be, even if you're moving towards the bubble.

I think you have more of a catastrophic or worst-case scenario mindset here.