The Big 12 expansion groundswell

[tooblue]

what is the big XII's position of strength? That they still exist? We've entered into a three-tiered world: the haves (the SEC + BIG 10), the have-a-lot-less (the acc and the BIGXII); and the have have nots (g5). Nothing that the big XII does with basketball or that the acc does with baseball is going to stem that advantage of the haves.

They have a TV deal. They will be the best basketball conference by a wide margin. They are buyers in a buyers market. They have BYU

No one is walking away from the NCAA basketball tournament ($1.14 billion in revenues in 2022). Even if the new football playoff brings in $2 billion as projected, and that same or a similar number could be hoarded by two super conferences, those same two super conferences will still want to participate in the March Madness—they could not recreate it on their own. Thus, the have nots will need to have as much leverage as they can to negotiate.

[BlueK]

Utah is not needed. Leave them out.

[Omaha 680]

They have a TV deal. They will be the best basketball conference by a wide margin. They are buyers in a sellers market. They have BYU

No one is walking away from the NCAA basketball tournament ($1.14 billion in revenues in 2022). Even if the new football playoff brings in $2 billion as projected, and that same or a similar number could be hoarded by two super conferences, those same two super conferences will still want to participate in the March Madness—they could not recreate it on their own. Thus, the have nots will need to have as much leverage as they can to negotiate.

They can't recreate what has made college football great in two superconferences either. If NIL continues unabated and the Big 2 really do break off from the NCAA, CFB will plummet in popularity. No one is going to GAF about minor league football.

[Joe Public]

I trust BYU grad and sports-analytics-as-an-academic-interest President Reese a lot more than I did red-U-painted-in-my-pool Cecil Samuelson. I could totally imagine Holmoe advocating for Utah, though. I wonder how BYU will cast its vote if the Big 12 holds a vote re: Utah.

[Goatnapper'96]

I trust BYU grad and sports-analytics-as-an-academic-interest President Reese a lot more than I did red-U-painted-in-my-pool Cecil Samuelson. I could totally imagine Holmoe advocating for Utah, though. I wonder how BYU will cast its vote if the Big 12 holds a vote re: Utah.

Lets be honest-whatever BYU did was of no consequence when the Big 12 decided whether or not it wanted Utah.

These decisions are made by sports analytics experts on staff at media partner companies, conference staff or member Universities. Nobody cares what Michael Young did. That is not to say I believe BYU opined one way or the other or even what position BYU should take just pointing out that I don't think BYU's opinion of Utah matters as much as what the numbers and analytics say.

[Joe Public]

Lets be honest-whatever BYU did was of no consequence when the Big 12 decided whether or not it wanted Utah.

These decisions are made by sports analytics experts on staff at media partner companies, conference staff or member Universities. Nobody cares what Michael Young did. That is not to say I believe BYU opined one way or the other or even what position BYU should take just pointing out that I don't think BYU's opinion of Utah matters as much as what the numbers and analytics say.

I do think that BYU is a voice in the room now like any other member school, albeit a new one that is still building relationships and considerate of making a first impression. That said, yes, conference staff/consultants/projections/recommendations will drive the decision-making, but that doesn’t make for Friday afternoon message board conversation like purity test hypotheticals do.

[USUC]

Fuck right off

https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/...=BrettMcMurphy

In the Big 12, Arizona, Arizona State and Utah will receive a full $31.7 million annually in media rights revenue (not including other league revenue from College Football Playoff, etc.) once the Big 12’s new six-year $2.3 billion Grant of Rights deal with ESPN and FOX begins in 2025, sources said.
In 2024, the three schools also will receive a full Big 12 revenue share, estimated to be about $42 million, a source said. In 2025, that “all-in” number is expected to be around $50 million annually per school, industry sources said.

[LiveCoug]

Meh, P5 to P5 always get full revenue. Doesn't mean anything

[old_gregg]

I do think that BYU is a voice in the room now like any other member school, albeit a new one that is still building relationships and considerate of making a first impression. That said, yes, conference staff/consultants/projections/recommendations will drive the decision-making, but that doesn’t make for Friday afternoon message board conversation like purity test hypotheticals do.

definitely some nerds from mckinsey or bcg in the room being persuasive.

[LiveCoug]

Remember 12 years ago when we thought a long term conference with BYU, Utah and TCU would be pretty awesome? Welp.

[Jeff Lebowski]

[Color Me Badd Fan]

The discussion regarding the haves vs the have nots is flawed in that there's an implication that the Big 10 is somehow on equal footing with the SEC. While this may be true with regard to money and the big media markets in the upper midwest + Philly and now LA, it's not true with the regard to the product on the field. Even with adding LA, the Big 10 is at an enormous disadvantage vs the SEC where virtually its entirely footprint is loaded with talent. Outside of Ohio State, there are six SEC programs with more success than every other Big 10 team in the past 15 years -- Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Auburn, Florida and Oklahoma.

From the 2000s on, the Big 10 has a losing record against the Pac 12, Big 12 and SEC, combined and separately. They're 133-170. While these numbers may shift with USC moving, I don't think they'll shift as much as people think. For example, Nebraksa's record against the Big 10 while they were in the Big 12 was 1-7.

I would argue that the SEC taking on Texas is a bigger deal competitively than the Big 10 taking on USC, even given the fact they already had aTm in the conference. I don't think the Big 10 is going to be that much better than the Big 12 competitively, they still lack access to recruiting. Ohio State will continue to be able to recruit nationally and Oregon and USC will continue loading up on SoCal recruits. Other than Oregon and USC, everything else stays the same. Losing Texas and Oklahoma is huge, of course, but that's more of a benefit to the SEC. Not every 4 star kid in Texas can, or wants to start for Oklahoma and Texas. Either the programs will be down or more commonly these kids will want to go where they can play. I don't know if the kids who decided to go to TCU wouldn't have gone there had Oklahoma and Texas already been in the SEC, I suspect they would have gone to TCU regardless. But they were good enough to get TCU to the playoffs, beat Michigan and then get their asses kicked against Georgia.

I just don't know how much this shifts things competitively -- there's a much, much wider gap between the old WAC/MWC vs the BCS conference than there is between the Big 12 and Big 10. Perhaps the gap is growing wider between the Big 12 and SEC, but I suspect there is enough talent in Texas not going to Texas, Oklahoma or aTm and in the other Big 12 states to produce some decent teams.

[All-American]

Remember 12 years ago when we thought a long term conference with BYU, Utah and TCU would be pretty awesome? Welp.

Not a bad point.

I would love for Utah to be left out. Frankly, I don't see why the Big 12 would want them when they already have a presence in the state.

But if that doesn't happen (as appears to be the way things are going), I will spend almost no time being upset about it. Not being in the same conference was always kind of dumb.

[USUC]

Not a bad point.

I would love for Utah to be left out. Frankly, I don't see why the Big 12 would want them when they already have a presence in the state.

But if that doesn't happen (as appears to be the way things are going), I will spend almost no time being upset about it. Not being in the same conference was always kind of dumb.

My sorrow with Utah's inclusion has more to do with the ease with which BYU can even the playing field. Utah's has separated itself in talent/recruiting and in younger generations who grew up with 9 in a row. I'd have preferred to have Utah wander the desert for 12 years while BYU was in a P5 to equalize the damage that has been done. It will equalize some (especially once Whit retires) but not how it would have with Utah relegated elsewhere.

[All-American]

My sorrow with Utah's inclusion has more to do with the ease with which BYU can even the playing field. Utah's has separated itself in talent/recruiting and in younger generations who grew up with 9 in a row. I'd have preferred to have Utah wander the desert for 12 years while BYU was in a P5 to equalize the damage that has been done. It will equalize some (especially once Whit retires) but not how it would have with Utah relegated elsewhere.

Yeah, it sucks that they get the ten year head start and will be able to keep their lead. Oh well. If BYU is good at anything, it's winning the long race even when it stumbles out the gate.