Lakers

[MarkGrace]

Vanessa looks like she's doing the Brett Michaels lip pout.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

Absolutely. He's only 30.

And only a season younger than Garnett. Kobe's played a lot of games. Garnett was exceptionally durable until he wasn't anymore. Kobe passed the 1000 game marker a while ago. Though Kobe didn't go to college or skip out a couple seasons to play baseball and is therefore much younger than Jordan at the same time, he's played about as many NBA games as Jordan did by the end of Jordan's second retirement after the 98 season. Of course, the college game and the baseball probably took a bit of a toll on Jordan's body, but I don't think it's the same as a full NBA season.

I think Kobe still has a couple great seasons in him before we really start seeing him wear down, but I think five seasons is asking a little much.

[Surfah]

And only a season younger than Garnett. Kobe's played a lot of games. Garnett was exceptionally durable until he wasn't anymore. Kobe passed the 1000 game marker a while ago. Though Kobe didn't go to college or skip out a couple seasons to play baseball and is therefore much younger than Jordan at the same time, he's played about as many NBA games as Jordan did by the end of Jordan's second retirement after the 98 season. Of course, the college game and the baseball probably took a bit of a toll on Jordan's body, but I don't think it's the same as a full NBA season.

I think Kobe still has a couple great seasons in him before we really start seeing him wear down, but I think five seasons is asking a little much.

We'll visit this again in 2014.

[cougjunkie]

We'll visit this again in 2014.

On the radio the other day David Locke broke down NBA players by minutes and it was amazing that almost every player in the NBA started their decline at 35,000 career minutes, Even Karl Malone. That doesnt mean you wont be a great player anymore but there is overwhelming evidence that the decline does begin at about 35,000 minutes (also this is no matter the players age at the time).

Kobe is at 34,561 right now.

[Donuthole]

Absolutely. He's only 30.

As of today, Kobe has played only four games less than MJ did in his entire career with the Bulls (and Kobe hasn't had the benefit of sitting out two seasons to let his body recover). When MJ turned 30, he had played 599 total NBA games, only 55% of Kobe's total games.

In other words, Kobe is a 2005 Lexus with 250,000 miles on him. Not really that old, still runs pretty smoothly, and still nicer than 95% of the cars on the road. Notwithstanding the great past performance, it's not exactly the car you're going to hop in for a cross-country road trip and expect to make it without some major hiccups.

Kobe may be only 30 (31 by the time next season starts), but he has the miles of a 37 year old. Unless he proves to be more resilient than even the healthiest NBA players, his performance is set to decline pretty steadily over the next few years.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

As of today, Kobe has played only four games less than MJ did in his entire career with the Bulls (and Kobe hasn't had the benefit of sitting out two seasons to let his body recover). When MJ turned 30, he had played 599 total NBA games, only 55% of Kobe's total games.

In other words, Kobe is a 2005 Lexus with 250,000 miles on him. Not really that old, still runs pretty smoothly, and still nicer than 95% of the cars on the road. Notwithstanding the great past performance, it's not exactly the car you're going to hop in for a cross-country road trip and expect to make it without some major hiccups.

Kobe may be only 30 (31 by the time next season starts), but he has the miles of a 37 year old. Unless he proves to be more resilient than even the healthiest NBA players, his performance is set to decline pretty steadily over the next few years.

Damn, nice mining of stats and nice analogy. I think some allowance needs to be given for Jordan's college years and time spent playing baseball and I'm willing to give Kobe two more years without a huge dropoff. After that, beware.

If the Lakers management were brutally cold, they wouldn't offer Kobe much if he opts out next year so they could have a chance at landing Wade or LeBron. With that roster sans Kobe, is there any way the Lakers wouldn't land one of the two big prizes in 2010?

[TripletDaddy]

Damn, nice mining of stats and nice analogy. I think some allowance needs to be given for Jordan's college years and time spent playing baseball and I'm willing to give Kobe two more years without a huge dropoff. After that, beware.

If the Lakers management were brutally cold, they wouldn't offer Kobe much if he opts out next year so they could have a chance at landing Wade or LeBron. With that roster sans Kobe, is there any way the Lakers wouldn't land one of the two big prizes in 2010?

I already said that Lebron will be a laker, probably after his next contract is up.

[FN Phat]

On the radio the other day David Locke broke down NBA players by minutes and it was amazing that almost every player in the NBA started their decline at 35,000 career minutes, Even Karl Malone. That doesnt mean you wont be a great player anymore but there is overwhelming evidence that the decline does begin at about 35,000 minutes (also this is no matter the players age at the time).

Kobe is at 34,561 right now.

Wow. Nice work.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

I already said that Lebron will be a laker, probably after his next contract is up.

Stern would have to step in and make sure LeBron goes to the Knicks and Wade ended up in LA as a younger replacement for Kobe. A LeBron-Gasol-Bynum trio would simply dominate the NBA and no other team would even come close. A shored up Knicks team with LeBron would be competitive with a Wade-Gasol-Bynum trio.

I also wouldn't rule out Dallas being a player in the free agent sweepstakes. I think Nowitzki is becoming a free agent around the same time, and Dallas has one of those rosters that would be pretty competitive with LeBron or Wade.

[Surfah]

Kobe has already proven to be more resilient than the healthiest NBA players. He is a notoriously fast healer. He puts the effort in at the gym and he takes care of his body when he's not. The guy lives in ice. Again, we can visit this thread again when he's 35 and we'll see. You guys predicting his demise are only hoping it's sooner rather than later.

Besides with D Will and Bron Bron in the pipeline, the Laker machine will keep rolling.

[cougjunkie]

Kobe has already proven to be more resilient than the healthiest NBA players. He is a notoriously fast healer. He puts the effort in at the gym and he takes care of his body when he's not. The guy lives in ice. Again, we can visit this thread again when he's 35 and we'll see. You guys predicting his demise are only hoping it's sooner rather than later.

Besides with D Will and Bron Bron in the pipeline, the Laker machine will keep rolling.

Maybe it is already happening. With playoff minutes Kobe has hit 41,000 career minutes, 2008-09 was his lowest ppg average since 2003-2004. He also shot the lowest number of free throws per game this year since 1999-2000 which says to me that maybe he has lost a step and cant get to the rim as easily, so he is relying more on his jump shot. Or that his body is starting to break down so he doesnt want to go to the rim anymore. His rebounding numbers and assists numbers are also down this year. 2008-09 was his 2nd lowest assist total since 1998-99 and the lowest rebounding total since 1997-98. Numbers down across the board, the decline has already begun.

[HBCoug]

Maybe it is already happening. With playoff minutes Kobe has hit 41,000 career minutes, 2008-09 was his lowest ppg average since 2003-2004. He also shot the lowest number of free throws per game this year since 1999-2000 which says to me that maybe he has lost a step and cant get to the rim as easily, so he is relying more on his jump shot. Or that his body is starting to break down so he doesnt want to go to the rim anymore. His rebounding numbers and assists numbers are also down this year. 2008-09 was his 2nd lowest assist total since 1998-99 and the lowest rebounding total since 1997-98. Numbers down across the board, the decline has already begun.

Maybe. Or maybe his teammates are just much, much better than they used to be. I think he showed a couple times during the Jazz series that he can take over a game if he has to. I agree with your point about settling for jumpers, and it drives me crazy at times...especially against a team like Utah that had no chance to stay in front of him, and doesn't help out on rotations very well. I also agree with Surfah that the guy takes care of his body incredibly well. A pinky injury is the most serious thing he's had to go through. He's also not going to have the knee issues somebody 6'9"+ will inevitably have like Malone or Garnett. I would expect his numbers to steadily drop, but much of that could be by design. The Lakers have enough around him now to win the West for the next 4-5 years as I originally said.

[Donuthole]

A pinky injury is the most serious thing he's had to go through. He's also not going to have the knee issues somebody 6'9"+ will inevitably have like Malone or Garnett. I would expect his numbers to steadily drop, but much of that could be by design. The Lakers have enough around him now to win the West for the next 4-5 years as I originally said.

IIRC, he has already had knee issues. But for said knee issues, he probably never would have bent that girl over in Denver.

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

Kobe has already proven to be more resilient than the healthiest NBA players. He is a notoriously fast healer. He puts the effort in at the gym and he takes care of his body when he's not. The guy lives in ice. Again, we can visit this thread again when he's 35 and we'll see. You guys predicting his demise are only hoping it's sooner rather than later.

I have nothing against Kobe, but are you really going to argue that Kobe is more resilient than Malone was? I think that is a stretch, and not proven through numbers.

Karl Malone's first 18 seasons in the NBA, about where Kobe would be with 4 years of college next year.
played 1434 of 1444 games for 99.3%

Kobe's first 13 seasons in the NBA
played 948 of 1034 games for 91.7%

To compare the most similar player in terms of wear and tear to Kobe, KG through his first 14 seasons
1055 of 1116 for 94.5%, however if you take his first 13 seasons through last year 998 of 1034 for 96.5%

Kobe is a durable player, by no reasonable measure is he "more resilient than the healthiest NBA players." I hope no ill will on Kobe, but to say that he isn't going to slow down over the next couple years, or break down, seems at best a stretch.

[HBCoug]

IIRC, he has already had knee issues. But for said knee issues, he probably never would have bent that girl over in Denver.

Touche'. He did have the knee cleaned out during the off-season back in '03 I think. But for said bending over, the Lakers might still be saddled with Shaq's contract. It's amazing what a chain reaction a little back-door action can cause.