"You Gotta Love It Baby" Official Jazz thread

[smokymountainrain]

SMR, what is your basis for saying you know they wouldn't miss a beat? Last year the Jazz had a win% of .578 with Sap as a starter -- that's far below what they've experienced with Booz as a starter. This year they're at .609 with Booz, in the '08 season .659 and in '07 .622. I'm not going to add up their win % last year w/o Booz because I don't have the time, but those 2.5 seasons right there are enough to indicate that we've played at a significantly higher level with Booz as a starter than we did with Sap.

And beyond that, the Jazz best play with Sap coincided with his worst stretch as a starter. We all remember the Sap who pulled down 19 consecutive double-doubles as a starter, but what seems to be lost on people was how much he struggled his last 13 games. During that stretch he failed to break the 20 point barrier even once, and only pulled out 4 double-double outings. The Jazz won 9 out of 13 over that stretch, including a streak where they took 8 out of 10.

Whether Sap's slowdown was due to fatigue having never played those types of minutes, or simply due to the fact that teams were now preparing for Millsap the starter not the afterthought, the fact of the matter remains that with the record they posted over 38 games plus those variables it's very shaky ground to be declaring you know something will happen.



Again, one game of AK for 40 minutes was nice, but there's no long-term evidence to suggest this is a legitimate trend. I'm not going to add up AK's minutes for the 38 stretch that Sap started, but it covered basically the middle of December to the middle of February. Over that time AK, by month, AK played 28.3, 31.9 and 29.2. At best he picked up a few minutes. And even with Booz in the lineup, this stuff is still w/in Jerry's discretion -- he could play AK 35 mins a night if he wanted to, he's already done it ten times this year with Booz around.



I'm not going to dispute that both are better defensive players, I think that much is clear. But neither is very close to being the offensive player, either. In AK's case you can cite PPS (and ignore TS%, which is as much an offensive efficiency state, and Booz is better), but AK playing as a guy nobody is guarding is clearly different than AK playing as a guy you're counting on to score every night. With Sap, yes they have comparable PPS and TS%, but again, this guy has played mostly as an afterthought, not a guy teams are keying in on (and again, the argument could be made that once they did last year Sap started to disappear).

Having watched all three of these guys quite a bit, I just don't see where either AK or Sap has the offensive skill to play arguably the most important position in a 1-4 offense. Again, the added defense is nice, but the playoffs have shown us that we have to improve not only our D, but our O -- Deron and Booz have been our only consistent scorers under playoff pressure, and that's just not going to get it done.

I get that you hate Booz, he's a prick and I hate him too. But we're still much closer to being a contender with him than without him. With him we just need a pairing of a defensive 5 -- you remove him and not only do we need a defensive 5, but we need one with some offensive skill, and that's going to be much harder to come by.

I like Sap and think he's a great luxury to have as a 6th man and fill-in starter, but I don't think we're better by dropping Booz and adding him as a permanent 4. I've already said that my ideal frontline rotation would be a guy like Haywood for 30 mins, Booz for 36, and Sap for 30. I really think that could get it done in the frontcourt.

Grace, the part in bold...I've done it before and that's what I'm basing my comment on. I'll have to look it up when I get a chance. IIRC, the Jazz were better last year without Boozer than they were with him. And they were better offensively without him.

But you are right - just because they were better last year (and yes, I'm basing that off memory), doesn't not mean they would be better this year so I shouldn't say I "know" that would happen.

Here's where I'm coming from in a nutshell. I've always wondered if Boozer, even when he's playing well, is a Ewing Theory guy. Last year I practically prayed he would get injured for a significant stretch to see if I was right. And sure enough he went down and the Jazz (again, by my memory) played better without him.

It just seems to me that the two things Boozer brings to the table - scoring and rebounding - the Jazz simply don't have a problem replacing. I think the Jazz averaged 104 ppg without him and 102 over the course of the season.

I will concede that last season isn't enough for me to say I know they would be better without him, but I am certainly not convinced he makes them better.

[old_gregg]

i think going small with ak off the bench is a lineup we're very, very efficient with:

1 dwill, 2 ronnie brewer, 3 wes matthews maybe?, 4 millsap, 5 boozer.

[smokymountainrain]

26-19 in 45 games last year without Boozer. 21-14 in games with Boozer. So a slightly better winning percentage with him, but part of those 21 wins were in the first four games after coming back from injury in which the Jazz may have played their best basketball of the season and he played just 20 minutes a game.

So it is a stretch to say they are definitely better without him, but that doesn't mean they shouldn't look to trade him, considering that without him and nothing in return they didn't miss much - now give the Jazz a significant piece in return and it's a slam dunk.

[MarkGrace]

Sap is beastin' again tonight.

[MarkGrace]

Nice little run to end the half. Wasn't expecting that given how little offensive punch was on the floor.

[MarkGrace]

What has gotten into AK? Kid is ballin' like its 2004 the last couple weeks.

[cougjunkie]

I thought Andrei played great as well, yet Utah was -1 with him on the floor.

They were +17 with Miles and +24 with Matthews.

[MarkGrace]

I thought Andrei played great as well, yet Utah was -1 with him on the floor.

Reason 1,234,689 why it completely confounds mean that people cite in-game +/- like it means anything.

[MartyFunkhouser]

Reason 1,234,689 why it completely confounds mean that people cite in-game +/- like it means anything.

It really seems like a stat that should tell you something, but on a single game basis it doesn't really show you that much. I would assume that on a season basis it is much more reliable.

[MarkGrace]

It really seems like a stat that should tell you something, but on a single game basis it doesn't really show you that much. I would assume that on a season basis it is much more reliable.

It better as a season-long stat (irons out a bit), but even at that it's way too dependent on combinations and back ups to draw anything really useful about an individual.

[MartyFunkhouser]

It better as a season-long stat (irons out a bit), but even at that it's way too dependent on combinations and back ups to draw anything really useful about an individual.

A lot of people have tried to apply the sabermetric approach that baseball uses to other sports, and while it has helped improve information in basketball, there will always be a ton of flaws because of the team nature of the game. It is damn hard to really separate out individual performance in basketball. I guess that is why I love baseball, you can quantify the value of players better than any other sport.

I've never really gotten much into the advanced statistics in basketball though. Any thoughts on the best advanced stats in basketball?

[MarkGrace]

A lot of people have tried to apply the sabermetric approach that baseball uses to other sports, and while it has helped improve information in basketball, there will always be a ton of flaws because of the team nature of the game. It is damn hard to really separate out individual performance in basketball. I guess that is why I love baseball, you can quantify the value of players better than any other sport.

I've never really gotten much into the advanced statistics in basketball though. Any thoughts on the best advanced stats in basketball?

Seriously?

[Surfah]

That was the best game by AK I have seen in, I don't know, 5 years?

[smokymountainrain]

What has gotten into AK? Kid is ballin' like its 2004 the last couple weeks.

There is nothing like watching AK when he's happy, having fun and on top of his game.

[MartyFunkhouser]

Seriously?

Yes, I really haven't looked that much into it short of looking at the SCHONE projections at basketball prospectus and that isn't an advanced stat it is a projection system. Beyond that I am aware of PER, pace adjusted stats, the stuff on 82games.com, but really don't know what is best for really quantifying performance.