"You Gotta Love It Baby" Official Jazz thread

[smokymountainrain]

Do you roll the dice on Embiid if he drops, but doesn't come to Utah to work out/be checked out by Utah's medical staff? If doctors in Cleveland get a look, but the Cavs don't take him, do you draft Embiid at 5? Assume Parker, Wiggins, Exum and Smart are all off the board. I think you do, it's worth the risk for a potential franchise changing center. But man, it sure would suck to waste a top 5 pick.

A healthy Embiid is the clear choice for #1 overall. If for some reason he slips to 5, it means those team's doctors were confident his health issues are fairly serious, and I wouldn't touch him at 5. Far too risky.

OTOH, there is plenty of risk involved in Smart, Vonleh, Randle, Gordon too (just in the sense that in general the draft is a crapshoot - nothing against those guys as prospects), so it's a tough call.

[smokymountainrain]

Yes. It won't happen, but yes.

Most reports seem to be indicating he looks pretty healthy, so yeah, he won't slip to 5.

[Sizzle]

Yes. It won't happen, but yes.

Right. I don't think it would either. I think he's the clear #1 if he's healthy. But that's a big if. And if you can't confirm his health ahead of time, is he worth the risk at 5? I'd probably say yes.

[Jacob]

Right. I don't think it would either. I think he's the clear #1 if he's healthy. But that's a big if. And if you can't confirm his health ahead of time, is he worth the risk at 5? I'd probably say yes.

I'm sticking with my theory that big men are inherently more risky draft picks, and especially when they have a history of health problems. That's why I rank Embid #3 on my personal draft board, which I know everybody is dying to know. So I probably would not take him 5 if he dropped that far and I didn't get the chance to review his health.

But while we are all talking about which pick after the top 4 we might take, it struck me that it is very likely that one of the top 4 drop. The most likely is Exum of course. So no need to discuss the other guys. Just take the guy that slips. Speaking of Exum... Did you all hear that in the most recent statistical analysis done of draftees reveals that Smart and Exum are the top 2 prospects in this draft? Nice to know since there is a good chance we could draft one of them. (Analysis done by Kevin Pelton, in article he and Chad Ford have up at Insider which I don't have access to).

Another quick point from the Ford chat yesterday, he doesn't think the Jazz have been high on Smart. That would be too bad, if true, but I don't trust Ford on this type of information. Smart is currently #5 on my super-secret draft board.

[Jacob]

To answer an earlier question I posed. I'd trade anyone on the roster plus the #23 pick or any future 1st to get into the top 3 this year. I'd prefer to not give up the #5 pick if I am giving up Hayward or Favors.

[MarkGrace]

I'm sticking with my theory that big men are inherently more risky draft picks, and especially when they have a history of health problems. That's why I rank Embid #3 on my personal draft board, which I know everybody is dying to know. So I probably would not take him 5 if he dropped that far and I didn't get the chance to review his health.

But while we are all talking about which pick after the top 4 we might take, it struck me that it is very likely that one of the top 4 drop. The most likely is Exum of course. So no need to discuss the other guys. Just take the guy that slips. Speaking of Exum... Did you all hear that in the most recent statistical analysis done of draftees reveals that Smart and Exum are the top 2 prospects in this draft? Nice to know since there is a good chance we could draft one of them. (Analysis done by Kevin Pelton, in article he and Chad Ford have up at Insider which I don't have access to).

Another quick point from the Ford chat yesterday, he doesn't think the Jazz have been high on Smart. That would be too bad, if true, but I don't trust Ford on this type of information. Smart is currently #5 on my super-secret draft board.

I also think it's very possible one of the top 4 makes it to the Jazz.

Cavs - Embiid
Bucks - Wiggins/Parker
6ers - Wiggins/Parker
Orlando - Vonleh (they also apparently really liked Smart and could be very interested again this year)
Jazz - Exum

Could definitely see something like this.

[smokymountainrain]

Just based on the fact that Smart is going to kill it in workouts, with his size, athleticism, and shooting (I bet he shoots lights out while being guarded by a chair), I wouldn't be shocked at all to see him go to Orlando at #5. Not only would I not be surprised to see Exum slip, I expect it.

The same thing I said about Smart there could be applied to Vonleh. Those two guys probably look great in workouts.

[Sizzle]

Just based on the fact that Smart is going to kill it in workouts, with his size, athleticism, and shooting (I bet he shoots lights out while being guarded by a chair), I wouldn't be shocked at all to see him go to Orlando at #5. Not only would I not be surprised to see Exum slip, I expect it.

The same thing I said about Smart there could be applied to Vonleh. Those two guys probably look great in workouts.

So what would the Jazz trade to move up to 4?

[smokymountainrain]

So what would the Jazz trade to move up to 4?

Oops!

Orlando at 4.

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

I also think it's very possible one of the top 4 makes it to the Jazz.

Cavs - Embiid
Bucks - Wiggins/Parker
6ers - Wiggins/Parker
Orlando - Vonleh (they also apparently really liked Smart and could be very interested again this year)
Jazz - Exum

Could definitely see something like this.

I'm hoping Philly falls in love with Vonleh and thinks he's the perfect pairing next to Noel. They need a scorer in a bad way to go with Noel, Thad Young, and MC-W so Parker what they need. But if he's gone at #2, it'd be awesome if they passed on Wiggins.

I think Utah might end up with one of the consensus top 4, but I think if it happens they're going to have to pick him at #4 (if not higher). If Wiggins or Parker or Embiid fell to 4, teams are going to try to get to that spot, thinking it much easier to move from a few spots instead of jumping all the way to 2. So if by some miracle Wiggins is there at 4, Utah will have to outbid some other team to snag that pick from Orlando.

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

Just based on the fact that Smart is going to kill it in workouts, with his size, athleticism, and shooting (I bet he shoots lights out while being guarded by a chair), I wouldn't be shocked at all to see him go to Orlando at #5. Not only would I not be surprised to see Exum slip, I expect it.

The same thing I said about Smart there could be applied to Vonleh. Those two guys probably look great in workouts.

I agree on Smart, but I think the other guy who potentially moves way up the board based on workouts is Gordon. Someone was reporting that he's telling teams he can both play and guard every position. He can go into a gym and show off superior ball handling for a big, incredible athleticism, and his tape from Arizona shows a guy who played unselfishly, played defense, and wanted to win. If his reworked jump shot looks good against the chair defenders, some team could really fall in love with him. Unfortunately, he's not a good fit in Milwaukee or Philly. But he'd fit well in Orlando with Vucevic, Afflalo, and Oladipo.

[Jacob]

I'm hoping Philly falls in love with Vonleh and thinks he's the perfect pairing next to Noel. They need a scorer in a bad way to go with Noel, Thad Young, and MC-W so Parker what they need. But if he's gone at #2, it'd be awesome if they passed on Wiggins.

I think Utah might end up with one of the consensus top 4, but I think if it happens they're going to have to pick him at #4 (if not higher). If Wiggins or Parker or Embiid fell to 4, teams are going to try to get to that spot, thinking it much easier to move from a few spots instead of jumping all the way to 2. So if by some miracle Wiggins is there at 4, Utah will have to outbid some other team to snag that pick from Orlando.

Jazz give Orlando #23 and #5 for #4. If Parker or Wiggins is there at 4, done.

[smokymountainrain]

Jazz give Orlando #23 and #5 for #4. If Parker or Wiggins is there at 4, done.

Why wouldn't Orlando want Wiggins or Parker if they fell to 4? Are you thinking they would want Smart and that is why they would accept the 5 and 23 for 4?

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

Why wouldn't Orlando want Wiggins or Parker if they fell to 4? Are you thinking they would want Smart and that is why they would accept the 5 and 23 for 4?

That's where my hope that Vonleh is the pick for Philly happens. Because then Orlando can get Exum at 5, though some analysts say they might favor Smart over Exum. Smart just doesn't seem like a great fit next to Oladipo, though that backcourt would be fun to watch. It'd be like having two Russell Westbrooks on the same team.

[MarkGrace]

That's where my hope that Vonleh is the pick for Philly happens. Because then Orlando can get Exum at 5, though some analysts say they might favor Smart over Exum. Smart just doesn't seem like a great fit next to Oladipo, though that backcourt would be fun to watch. It'd be like having two Russell Westbrooks on the same team.

I've thought that as well, but it seems like you have some similar issues (combo guard, can't shoot) with an Oladipo/Exum pairing anyway.