BYU Hoops 2014-2015

[Commando]

Nate Austin was definitely a defensive presence- there is no question about that. I recall him being the third best player on the team if memory serves me well.

[wapiti]

Stanford being in the rpi top 30 counts as a real quality win as far as the committee is concerned. But I agree we're pretty thin in that department. On the other hand, we still don't have as many bad losses as last year, and Purdue is currently projected to finish as a top 100 team, so that one probably will come off the bad list. Pepperdine if they finish strong isn't going to look that bad either and shouldn't hurt if they're the worst loss. BYU absolutely can't lose any more Pepperdine type games or worse however, and beating them on the road is probably necessary.

This team has no margin for error. Beating Pepperdine on the road is important, even better if they can blow them out. St. Mary's in Provo is a must win. Really, the only loss that is acceptable at this point is Gonzaga. Win there and it may allow for a loss at Portland or something, but Gonzaga is the last game of the season. On top of that, this team needs to get to the finals of the tournament and play a competitive game with Gonzaga. If Gonzaga gets upset before the finals, BYU will have to win the tournament.

[TripletDaddy]

This team has no margin for error. Beating Pepperdine on the road is important, even better if they can blow them out. St. Mary's in Provo is a must win. Really, the only loss that is acceptable at this point is Gonzaga. Win there and it may allow for a loss at Portland or something, but Gonzaga is the last game of the season. On top of that, this team needs to get to the finals of the tournament and play a competitive game with Gonzaga. If Gonzaga gets upset before the finals, BYU will have to win the tournament.

Dave Rose has never won a conference tournament so that option is out.

[BlueK]

Dave Rose has never won a conference tournament so that option is out.

True that he hasn't won tournaments. To me that makes his track record of finding a way to get to the NCAA tournament almost every year even more impressive, even as a member of the WCC.

[BlueK]

This team has no margin for error. Beating Pepperdine on the road is important, even better if they can blow them out. St. Mary's in Provo is a must win. Really, the only loss that is acceptable at this point is Gonzaga. Win there and it may allow for a loss at Portland or something, but Gonzaga is the last game of the season. On top of that, this team needs to get to the finals of the tournament and play a competitive game with Gonzaga. If Gonzaga gets upset before the finals, BYU will have to win the tournament.

I agree there is basically no margin of error. But we were in that boat last year as well, and in fact in an even worse position. The difference is that last year's team didn't have as many injuries. Collinsworth, obviously, but that happened in the conference championship game -- essentially after we had earned our way into the NCAA tournament because we lost that game and got in. This year we've had Austin out for half the season, but he's coming back now. That makes me wonder if that will be enough to help us sneak in like last year. Obviously I'm assuming Winder isn't out for very long. We'll need both of them. The St Mary's game was close enough and the offensive rebounds SMC got seemed to be so important in that game that it makes me think a few rebounds from Austin would have made a difference.

[TripletDaddy]

True that he hasn't won tournaments. To me that makes his track record of finding a way to get to the NCAA tournament almost every year even more impressive, even as a member of the WCC.

that is nice but nobody was talking about whether his NCAA tournament appearances are impressive or unimpressive. you simply stated that BYU might have to win the WCC tournament....something Rose is highly unlikely to do and has never done in the past, at least not as a head coach. Our best realistic shot is making it to the finals and losing well, regardless of opponent.

[Moliere]

Barring beating Gonzaga, BYU has no chance of dancing unless they can win the tourney....which they won't. Their RPI is 50, which isn't good enough for a 3rd (maybe 4th) place WCC team to get into the dance. However, if they beat Gonzaga in Spokane they can probably afford one or two more losses to either Pepperdine or Saint Mary's. The Gonzaga game is the key. Lose it and there is no chance.

[Green Monstah]

Nate Austin was definitely a defensive presence- there is no question about that. I recall him being the third best player on the team if memory serves me well.

ehem...Anson...ehem...Winder

Austin did okay defensively. He drastically reduced his idiot fouls, so there's that.

[Blueintheface]

Barring beating Gonzaga, BYU has no chance of dancing unless they can win the tourney....which they won't. Their RPI is 50, which isn't good enough for a 3rd (maybe 4th) place WCC team to get into the dance. However, if they beat Gonzaga in Spokane they can probably afford one or two more losses to either Pepperdine or Saint Mary's. The Gonzaga game is the key. Lose it and there is no chance.

I tend to agree, but say we run the table, up until the championship game, and lose. We might get a look. Doubtful, unless someone Waldow breaks Waldow's his leg.

[wapiti]

Barring beating Gonzaga, BYU has no chance of dancing unless they can win the tourney....which they won't. Their RPI is 50, which isn't good enough for a 3rd (maybe 4th) place WCC team to get into the dance. However, if they beat Gonzaga in Spokane they can probably afford one or two more losses to either Pepperdine or Saint Mary's. The Gonzaga game is the key. Lose it and there is no chance.

They could lose at Gonzaga and still dance if they win every other game. That would be good enough for a 2nd place finish in the WCC.

[BlueK]

Barring beating Gonzaga, BYU has no chance of dancing unless they can win the tourney....which they won't. Their RPI is 50, which isn't good enough for a 3rd (maybe 4th) place WCC team to get into the dance. However, if they beat Gonzaga in Spokane they can probably afford one or two more losses to either Pepperdine or Saint Mary's. The Gonzaga game is the key. Lose it and there is no chance.

Their RPI as of today doesn't matter that much. It would be one thing if were sitting at #130 or something. But it wouldn't take much to push us into the 30s or low 40s where historically almost every team finishing there gets in. I don't know if you've seen rpiforecast.com. There is a calculator on that site that allows you to see where it estimates a team will end up in the rpi after you guess which remaining games they will win or lose. According to that site, if BYU wins every remaining game and loses to Gonzaga, their rpi ends up at #32 going into the WCC tournament.

[Crockett]

The fact that they don't have any bad losses (so far) should also help bolster BYU's case. In 6 losses, the average point difference is 4.8 and they played all ranked opponents very close. No blowout losses. I haven't given up hope. BYU pretty much controls its destiny, although bubble teams always depend on what happens to other bubble teams.

[Green Monstah]

I'd count the Pepperdine loss as a bad loss--especially at Home.

[BlueK]

I'd count the Pepperdine loss as a bad loss--especially at Home.

there are different ways the committee defines bad loss. Ideally you'd like to have zero losses to teams not in the top 100, but the reality is that for bubble teams it's not about measuring each team against a set standard. It's about comparison between the teams under consideration, and by the end of the year pretty much every bubble team has at least one "bad" loss. There are also different levels of "bad" losses. The committee is going to ding you more for a loss to a team ranked under 150 or under 200 more than against a team closer to 100. Pepperdine is currently ranked #129. They seem to be emerging as at least the 4th best WCC team. If they can keep winning they may very well finish in the top 100 anyway. Also, last year BYU had five bad losses and still got in. That is unusual, but we had a very tough OOC schedule. This year the OOC schedule is still good but we don't have as many good wins. On the other hand, we have many fewer bad losses.

[TripletDaddy]

for those that are tracking BYU's NCAA chances at this stage of the season, are you expecting BYU to win a game?